Looking for Advice

[BlueWaterSailor]

so did i

photoshopped all my losses....

i only lied.

like you.

i have never traded in my life.

Oh, so you're a liar as well as a gambling addict. Got it.

By the way: it takes wit to do sarcasm well, and you're very short in that department. But that's no surprise, since losers typically lose all across the board...

Go ahead and give it another sad-ass attempt. I won't be reading or responding, but you might as well keep on with it; that 14-year losing streak isn't going to get itself done.

 

[Fonz]

I was wondering why OP just posted once..

 

[rarefarefroghorn]

I believe I'm qualified to answer this post. I will help you, for free, but this message can be harsh to you, please don't take it personally.

I think you have neither a plan in the first place, nor a winning system. Have you backtested this idea? How does it perform?

A system without backtesting results is a system destined to lose, because you wouldn't even have a grasp on its statistical volatility.

1-) Focus all your energy into discovering a winning system, it doesn't matter how long it takes, just focus on it. You gotta backtest it throughly. How you do you do it? You need to either use a ready to use backtester, or you need to code your own backtester. I've chosen the second option.

If you don't know any math, learning a little statistics is all you need, I don't think you need complex math models to make money. You can, but that'd be overkill.

You don't know how to code? Learn it. You don't have to do algo trade, you can even trade manually if you want, but you need to have a system scanning for possible signals. Without it, you are driving blind.

2-) Start trading.

I hope you make it.

Can you point to any things in statistics or recommend anything where I can learn what is important to apply in trading. I do know some programming.

Stop trading right away. You neither have the capital nor the knowledge to get anywhere in this field.
Even worse, your addiction to make it may lead to neglecting the stuff that is more important in your life right now, especially education.

If you really want to pursue this carreer, make sure you get properly educated in math and IT, then apply for a intern or trainee position to see, what you're actually up against.

As retail with below 50k in savings there is zero chance you'll make a living from this, got that?

You bet on what you believe gives you an edge, but in reality you have no clue how the market works neither do you have a grip on basic options concepts. You just trade them because you can't afford outrights.

Just stop, get educated and come back later. Right now you're just burning out.

What defines a proper education, can you give me an outline or a starting place on what I need to learn for trading? Also what resources I would need to know how the market works.

Honestly it looks like you're gambling.

Nothing in your description gives you any real edge over the next trader.

It's one big 50/50. Flip a coin.

Can you give a reason why it is a 50/50? Or point to something that will allow me to tell if my trading is 50/50.

As others have noted, you’re trading randomly, which even at 50% is a losing game because you still are paying the bid/ask spread.

My advice:
- quit trading for now, focus on unlearning what you’ve taught yourself
- start reading about financial markets from a professionals perspective (efficient market hypothesis, assumption of no arbitrage and no trading frictions)
- learn the tools that will help you analyze markets (data analysis and econometrics, focusing on testing causality)
- try to get a job in the industry to learn from actual practitioners
- figure out if you are more qualitative or quantitative in your approach and stitch together a process that builds off it
- try to trade again

Good luck.

Do you have a place to start to learn about these topics? I feel as if I look up these topics I do not know where to start. Also can you give me examples of jobs that will allow me to be near traders or just people in general that are into. Also I have viewed your elitetrader school thread.

If I read your post correctly, you say you know how to place wining trades but is a loser due to lack of discipline.

If that is the case...

First, at your age very few people will have the discipline that is needed of a discretionary trader.

Second, you know the problem which means you are already ahead of the game...

May be you can keep a profit target. Say if you are up by $40 for the day, close the position and stop trading. And if down by $20-30 close position and stop trading for the day. If your strategy is good - over time you will make a nice kitty and get into a good trading habit.

Once that is sorted you will be able to work on maximising profits, etc.

Well I do not know if I have a winning system anymore. From the post above people speculate that I am doing a coin flip. I have never backtested because I do not know how to get the data from online sources, unless you pay for the data.

In your very long post, you did not once, mention of having a trading journal. I have a trading journal and I add notes as needed. What a trading journal accomplishes is show you trading mistakes that you do over and over. It also, calculates my win rate, average gain vs average loss, expectation (whether you have an edge or not). By knowing your mistakes, you can avoid it and become a better trader. Losing $300 on a $1000 account shows you have no proper risk management. This is statistical but, to avoid risk of ruin and blowing up your account, you should not risk more than 2% on each trade. $1,000 x 2% is $20.00 per trade. If you are risking more than that per trade, you will blow up your account. Last piece of advise. Simplify things. Remember the KISS principle. The simple things are, the more easily to avoid confusion, ambiguity and numerous mistakes. I have simplified my trading system and use it to swing trade and trade following stocks. Whatever trading system you have, you should simplify it.

I did have one, but I did not do it for the time when I started with 1k. The 1k situation was when I told myself I would reduce my size to 1 contract and follow my plan. Before I had around 15k, but pulled out after a series of big wins and 1 large loss to rethink things.

a couple of my parameters are : My trading process relies on trend length (ie volatility) and initial risk... for example, weekly I evaluate/analyze trend lengths and if the trends are running less than 3 times my initial stoploss then I Look to see if changing trend parameters will help, if not then I don't trade that symbol. I set the 3 times my initial stop loss as a minimum for this parameter because I seldom get in at the trend start and seldom get out at the trend end. You know how it is. I adjust risk by adjusting the number of contracts I trade up to a maximum of 10 contracts. If my risk with 1contract is more than I am comfortable with I won't trade this symbol.

Hope this helps

Thanks. Since I appreciate the information.

Start from the scratch
Psychology
Risk management
Trade Plan

do a inadept study on this whilst testing it live, work on these and you'll see the difference

I do think my problem might be risk management but I also do not know if I have a winning system anymore. At least statistically I do not know. I will reevaluate everything.

I was wondering why OP just posted once..

Honestly I saw the answers to my call for help but it hurts. When you put 4years in and people say you have nothing. So I took some time off before I viewed this again, so my ego wouldn't affect my attitude towards people who want to help me. It really is painful though.

Also sorry for my grammar. I will probably view the answers you guys post but I will take some time to think about them. Again I appreciate it.

rarefarefroghorn

 

[MrMuppet]

Can you point to any things in statistics or recommend anything where I can learn what is important to apply in trading. I do know some programming.



What defines a proper education, can you give me an outline or a starting place on what I need to learn for trading? Also what resources I would need to know how the market works.



Can you give a reason why it is a 50/50? Or point to something that will allow me to tell if my trading is 50/50.



Do you have a place to start to learn about these topics? I feel as if I look up these topics I do not know where to start. Also can you give me examples of jobs that will allow me to be near traders or just people in general that are into. Also I have viewed your elitetrader school thread.



Well I do not know if I have a winning system anymore. From the post above people speculate that I am doing a coin flip. I have never backtested because I do not know how to get the data from online sources, unless you pay for the data.



I did have one, but I did not do it for the time when I started with 1k. The 1k situation was when I told myself I would reduce my size to 1 contract and follow my plan. Before I had around 15k, but pulled out after a series of big wins and 1 large loss to rethink things.



Thanks. Since I appreciate the information.



I do think my problem might be risk management but I also do not know if I have a winning system anymore. At least statistically I do not know. I will reevaluate everything.



Honestly I saw the answers to my call for help but it hurts. When you put 4years in and people say you have nothing. So I took some time off before I viewed this again, so my ego wouldn't affect my attitude towards people who want to help me. It really is painful though.

Also sorry for my grammar. I will probably view the answers you guys post but I will take some time to think about them. Again I appreciate it.

rarefarefroghorn

https://akunacapital.teachable.com/

Start here. If you do well, they'll invite you for an interview. Be aware that the stuff is not easy although it's only the 101. But at least you know which direction you have to look for.
Professional trading is all about replicating cashflows to find edge in price vs. value no matter where you look.
A fundamentally oriented fund might figure out the value of an asset through sheer research power ("the big short") a market maker might only be interested in queue position.

Learn the math, learn the instruments, trading rules and stop guessing. Then you might have a carreer.

An example:

1. If the corporate bond trades at 80cts on the dollar and the market cap of the company's share float is 0.5 times its cash position, can you make money from this and how would you structure a trade?

2. If a 100$ stock is under short sale restriction and the 100$ option combo for 30 days trades 50 cts below cash, can you make money with that information? Where are the risks?

 

[longandshort]

Professional trading is all about replicating cashflows to find edge in price vs. value no matter where you look.

This.

Other career opportunities are working for an investment bank or broker/dealer as a trader.

I’ll post some links to investment resources in a bit.

 

[persistence]

Can you point to any things in statistics or recommend anything where I can learn what is important to apply in trading. I do know some programming.

rarefarefroghorn

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability
Khan academy is great for learning this kind of stuff, I have learned many things thanks to it.

Learn these two
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve_fitting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting


Good luck, I hope you make it. Just asking here shows that you want to improve and willingness to change. Creativity isn't about being genius, it's about persistence, that's where my username comes from. I've persisted and eventually made it.

 

[newwurldmn]

https://akunacapital.teachable.com/

Start here. If you do well, they'll invite you for an interview. Be aware that the stuff is not easy although it's only the 101. But at least you know which direction you have to look for.
Professional trading is all about replicating cashflows to find edge in price vs. value no matter where you look.
A fundamentally oriented fund might figure out the value of an asset through sheer research power ("the big short") a market maker might only be interested in queue position.

Learn the math, learn the instruments, trading rules and stop guessing. Then you might have a carreer.

An example:

1. If the corporate bond trades at 80cts on the dollar and the market cap of the company's share float is 0.5 times its cash position, can you make money from this and how would you structure a trade?

2. If a 100$ stock is under short sale restriction and the 100$ option combo for 30 days trades 50 cts below cash, can you make money with that information? Where are the risks?

I like brain teasers.

no to 2 assuming stock doesn’t pay divs.

what’s the answer to 1? Buy stock and short the bond? But no info on float of bond to market cap so you can’t determine recovery rates.

 

[padutrader]

Oh, so you're a liar as well as a gambling addict. Got it.

By the way: it takes wit to do sarcasm well, and you're very short in that department. But that's no surprise, since losers typically lose all across the board...

Go ahead and give it another sad-ass attempt. I won't be reading or responding, but you might as well keep on with it; that 14-year losing streak isn't going to get itself done.

i live to trade and not give pointless personal insults....just because you are a loser does not mean you insult people.

 

[padutrader]

that 14-year losing streak isn't going to get itself done.

you fuclking bastard that is 14 year learning period...something you never learned so you do not trade

 

[kmiklas]

Can you give a reason why it is a 50/50? Or point to something that will allow me to tell if my trading is 50/50.

Let's say you want to win on 3 out of 5 trades (60%), or maybe 4 out of 7 (57%). The basis for your trading is just looking at timeframes and prices on chart. Pretty much everyone is doing that--including the soul-less algorithms that hedge funds run. You might get lucky here and there, and win 51 out of 100 trades, but you're not doing anything to give you a real advantage.

As a comparative example, let's look at a simple pair trade. Take two tickers that are highly correlated: such as gold/silver, General Motors/Ford, or AT&T/Verizon. Now you have additional information, instead of just price movement on one instrument, you now have two--and a measure of comparison. This give you a bit of an edge. You can expand this in different ways; perhaps add everyone's favorite, Tesla, into the mix. Now you're comparing three correlated tickers. You can add countless other influencers, with correlation coefficients, both market data and non-market.

To make a few analogies:

• Chess: you're going for a 4-step checkmate. It will work here and there, but it's not very saavy.
• Baseball, you're trying to throw a strike with a 50mph fastball.
• Football: You're running a 6.0 40.

Imagine a trade where you had a machine that told you, with p=0.75, which way $SPY would swing tomorrow morning. Now that would be a great advantage! You have to work hard to gain this insight and see these opportunities.

That's why we think you're just flipping coins. This style isn't really compelling.