Quote from nzbryant:
Great article Jack. Thanks.
Basically Seligman's (I think it was Seligman) Learned Helplessness. Repeated focus on things out of ones control, and failure to impact them positively, causes 'giving up'.
Re: Columbus analogy, do you mean the crew were focused on time and reaching land (conflicted goals) while Columbus was unconflicted - with only one goal i.e. land?
There are many kinds of traders just as there are many kinds of sailors.
If a person has an edge orientation, what does he occupy his time with? When sidelined he looks to enter. When in a trade, he is doing something else.
The consideration of what traders do when they are in the market is a very infrequent consideration on ET. It looks like ancillary things rule when it comes to edge trading. A lot of consideration is given to money management and stops, for example.
Money management makes sure you have very little in the market and stops are there to prevent more than a certain limit of capital losses or to limit profits after the price peaks as the market goes against a trade.
Making money while in a trade, for edge traders, is not something they often consider or discuss.
Before entering a set up, most edge traders are checking off whether the criteria is met. They actually, often, have data sets they require. Think of it as a bit mask of some sort for the bytes they are processing.
Once they are in the market, often they consider things that are not part of what the market is doing. An extreme change occurs for these people. Most often it looks like money management and stops dictate what they are looking at as the market operates. No trade is important since it does not involve much relative capital. I feel that what I read mostly is people talking about a reference point and not market happenings.
It seems that the entry price is far more important than the entry time. So is the stop setting as a price. None of these three things matter in any way relative to making money. All they are is references that do not matter.
Making money as a topic and as a vocation is best done by being a partner with the market and monitoring and doing analysis in order to do good decision making and taking timely action.
Most ET traders do not chat about these things. I just consider where I am, what is next and how fast the market is moving.
Look at these things as data sets. Do not look at these things as singletons. One consideration is taking a data set of NOW. It is a bit mask applied to a stream of data at a given time. Columbus did that. His crew in my example looked at a singleton.
The second bit mask is a mask that examines the contemporary sequences in that part of the trading sample. It is a view of a train of near past snapshots and their repetition over and over is part of a larger train of events. Thus, you know where you are from the last snapshot and you know what the next snapshot will be because you have the whole cycle train available to be able to determine your place in it and what is next.
The snapshots you are anticipating are the few that surround the better place to complete the money making cycle you are in.
You can approximate the timing before it occurs since it happens over and over. So from these three things you can take timely action.
As time passes and this is repeated, "land" comes into view, the picture develops and a great deal of skill is acquired along with the rewards of trading.
What I read shows that people do not have bit masks for market data; they do not have bit masks for sequencing; nor do they have any sence of what is going to occur when. What they have instead is a process of spending time and failing to make money.
One of the most common litanies of the troops is "freak out" over singletons. These people trading in "reaction" to what they see. Bit masks assure no "freakout" and also afford the trader the ability to have the vision to "SEE".
They SEE two things.
They see "differences" from snapshot to snapshot and they see what I refer to as WWT (What wasn't that). This is an unbeatable combination for making money. What is does is shift the trader in time relative to the market.
Two partners are working together. One makes money and the other provides the opportunity to make money by giving data.
The trader sits in a place slightly ahead of where the market sits. This is a pairing of partners in an condition of anticipation.
The trader knows where the market is; what is next and how fast the market is changing. He does this by "knowing the answers to these three items. The market simply delivers data to forward the process.
The timing of things is very slow for the trader and very fast for the market delivering data. It is easy to install a "fast trader" along side you to make your manual job very easy. Anyone who can afford it does just this.
The CO of the edge trader is like a vacuum. There is no partnership nor is the "seating" anything but "reaction" to mostly singleton surprises. There probably isn't even a partnership in place.
All the conversation about choosing an appropiate trading style and edges is just conversation it is not a plan. Money management and stops are not a plan. Reacting to singletons by freaking out is not a plan.
Columbus had a plan; he had skills; he had bit masks and he had bytes that he took over and over. One thing that Columbus did very well was return to his home port so he could sail again and again. He drew capital to himself from others.
All traders can understand when people are offering them money to trade; it is a sign that they know what they are doing. Often people with money get turned down, too. That means that it is not worth it to trade OPM for that trader.
Consider pool extraction (taking out what the market offers) and edge trading with CO. Consider a million dollars or 10 million dollars. Where would you drop this money off to get it traded? How many times the indexes would you want in return for your capital? Social security, insurance pools, pension funds, etc., etc. They don't drop if off anywhere special these days. Maybe someday they will catch on.
Read about the pirates in the straight of Malacca; it doesn't work too well in trading either.