Looking for a partner

[ironchef]

Here's what I'm reading now (well, some 10 years ago actually :

https://imgur.com/a/5BmFwtC

Here's a cover of what my grand-grandma was teaching (not just reading), 120 years ago:

https://imgur.com/a/nLsLGgA

Contents:

https://imgur.com/a/lgqUSJr

So around 1900 the mother of my grandmother was a teacher in a small village in the Carpathians mountains in Transylvania. At the time the region was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Romanians were only one of the many minorities within it. Yet we had education in our own language, so it wasn't that oppressive afterall.

Anywayz, I digress, lemme get back to the "wealth" or "Parents' income, not smarts, key to entrepreneurship". Sadly I think it applies to my case too. So my ancestors were in the 2% of the 2% as far as smarts goes (few were literate altogether around 1900, let alone be teachers of literature).

Wealth-wise, I grew in Romania so we're 2nd world at best compared to the reference on what having resources means. On top of that I grew in rural area. Local statistics say that about 2% of the village dwellers end up in high-paid urban jobs, although they still make the majority (>50%). Yeah they stupid (like me, whose family waz documentedly reading fluently since at least 1900). Btw, that Romanian you see in the primary school reading book from 1900 has kinda changed since. It's "peasant talk", sort of like saying "dweller" instead of "inhabitant". Or mentioning "Jews" as in "Jews consider the pig an unclean animal and therefore they don't eat it".

Leaving aside the commies trying to obliterate my family for trying to stick out from the crowd, grandpa got a 16-years prison sentence for running a bar in the village ("fiscal fraud" they said), they were never rich, but getting by. My mother and father made about 8000 lei around 1990, having spoken to older taxi drivers who used to work in city factories, the average salary was around 2000 lei. So my folks were making 2x an average city family income but lived in a lower cost area, therefore... well ... wealth

My copy of Bjork:

After two year, I couldn't get pass Chapter 3, "A More General One Period Model".

So my new year resolution is to take a couple of Coursera classes on partial differential equations.

 

[Aquarians]

My copy of Bjork:

View attachment 250346

After two year, I couldn't get pass Chapter 3, "A More General One Period Model".

So my new year resolution is to take a couple of Coursera classes on partial differential equations.

Don't stress yourself over that.

 

[Aquarians]

My copy of Bjork:

View attachment 250346

After two year, I couldn't get pass Chapter 3, "A More General One Period Model".

So my new year resolution is to take a couple of Coursera classes on partial differential equations.

Well ironchef if you even heard about that chapter let alone started it means you're about the same level as me.

Lemme tell you stories about where I come from. Small countryside town / village, my father drinking with the math teacher, about 10:30 AM when guy raises up from his n-th coffe + cognac and exclaims "fuck, guys, I've got classes! gotta go!".

I was top brass so I found the story amusing rather than annoying. When gymnasiun finished, I moved to lyceum, best in the county, best class in the lyceum. Well barely got admitted at the bottom of the class (bottom of the best). My desk colleague went to become a high ranking officer in the Romanian army, fought in Afghanistan and all.

Anywayz, back to "A More General One Period Model", 10:30 AM, small forgotten town in original Transilvanya.... (to be continued).

 

[Aquarians]

Speaking of bottom of the best, I got rejected by Romanian Technical Military Academy. A year later admitted first at one of the major non-military universities in the capital of Transilvania.

 

[Aquarians]

So my new year resolution is to take a couple of Coursera classes on partial differential equations.

I have a best friend from childhood who stayed in the "coffe + cognac" small town. When I was final year in lyceum peparing for military academy, he asked me to help him with university admission ... in math. He's a good fellow but... math? OK, I was thinking to myself, maybe he doesn't grasp that well the second method of integral substitution ... NOT! Really, I was prepared for anything but not for that. Prepared politically as in telling him politely where to go. Technically... he didn't know ... fractions. Like 1/2 + 3/4. No. Fucking. Idea. I politely told him I'm gonna think about it.

Btw, You know who taught him enough math not just to enter but to finish university? The "cognac" guy

 

[destriero]

I wanna make money from trading options and since I already invested some 15 years into this already, it's gonna be this or nothing at all.

At this point I have some promising trading strategies but I wanna debunk them with a partener before proceeding to the next step.

Actually I have:
- Historical options data for all US equity and indexes since 2002.
- A software to import that data and use it into backtests, plugging in my strategy ideas and option pricing models.
- Background in corporate finance and math, basically I used to work as a quant for an options market maker.

"Beating" (doing better than) the market is not easy, there's 100k *registered* quants on Wilmott and with 100% probability, almost none of them does that.
Add to that at least 10,000,000 self-identifying retail "traders" (lol, "self-identifying" .

Dude, you have a website (sic) that reads that you offer front to back office option analytics and trading. You're laughably FOS.

 

[destriero]

My copy of Bjork:

View attachment 250346

After two year, I couldn't get pass Chapter 3, "A More General One Period Model".

So my new year resolution is to take a couple of Coursera classes on partial differential equations.

Let us know when you get one of those continuous time (hedging) machines. There are statistical-arbs everywhere, and while learning about replication and dispersion is cool, there is zero utility in replication (and pure arbitrage at <1% rates.)

 

[ironchef]

Well I'm 43 so 15 years is not that much compared to overall, but is pretty much the time since I finally decided for a target in my life and stuck to it. Speaking of intelligent, I'm self-aware enough to realize I'm not stupid but also that I'm no genius. Main problem though it's not related to smarts but to wealth: "Parents' income, not smarts, key to entrepreneurship" : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25942936 .

Success in business (and trading) correlates strongly with initial available capital. Mathematically I think this may be related to the fact that there's a minimum viable amount for getting airborne, sort of a minimum runway length for airplanes.

The problem with this world ... lemme quote Bukowski first: "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." If you replace "doubts" with "lack of wealth" and "confidence" with "enough inherited wealth", he's spot on

Then of course of the extremely few (in percents) who actually have enough runway to launch flying vehicle, the vast majority will end up in crashes.

Let's say "the problem with this world == wealth" was a 2nd world problem, now we have a 1st world problem: "blame the victim". Of the 2% minority that had enough wealth to try entrepreneurship (I'm classifying trading as entrepreneurship too btw), 98% will fail.

So overall we have a failure rate of at least 1 - 2% * 2% = 99.96% if we define failure as "not succeeding in entrepreneurship". Yet we blame it on those who tried.

If I started out with wealth, I won't be trading and won't be on ET.

I am older, it took 20+ years of saving/compounding to create my runway and allowed me to quit and trade full time.

Those of us in the US are lucky. Even though most started with modest means (by our standard), by third world standard we started quite well off if we live below our means.

 

[Aquarians]

If I started out with wealth, I won't be trading and won't be on ET.

I am older, it took 20+ years of saving/compounding to create my runway and allowed me to quit and trade full time.

Those of us in the US are lucky. Even though most started with modest means (by our standard), by third world standard we started quite well off if we live below our means.

As long as you don't treat me as some 3rd world goat that you can fuck at will, we can talk.

I used to be part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire btw, so I've that mentality, whatever that means. You know what that means? We good people, trying to make shit work for everybody, only to regret it afterwards.

Just because I'm a good guy you think I can't drag you in the woods and play football with your heads? Think again.

 

[Aquarians]

If I started out with wealth, I won't be trading and won't be on ET.

I am older, it took 20+ years of saving/compounding to create my runway and allowed me to quit and trade full time.

Those of us in the US are lucky. Even though most started with modest means (by our standard), by third world standard we started quite well off if we live below our means.

I'm 1st world, don't forget that. Austro-Hungarian.