Looking for a new trading strategy. Totally decimated trading ICs in this raging bull market
- Thread starter js4682603
- Start date
What you are describing seems ready to set you up for the strategic version of "Whipsaw" --
in that, just as you leave ICs for strong directionals, the market will turn on you and wipe you out.
May I suggest that you work on position management *before* a whole-clothed tossing of ICs?
For example: if you examine the position deltas of the two verticals of your last IC -- when you put them on, versus when you sought/felt pressured to exit, you'd notice quite a difference. If you further compare that to the premium sought, ........an exposure/premium, risk/reward sort of deal.......
Perhaps some decision rules might fall out.
As well, if you put up a graph of the IV of your favorite underlying, plotted against the realized volatility, you might notice something quite powerful over the last 12-24 months. It doesn't mean that ICs are to be avoided, eschewed, tossed to the wind -- but maybe that *your* utilization might need to be less blind to the market.
I write from ungentle experience.
in that, just as you leave ICs for strong directionals, the market will turn on you and wipe you out.
May I suggest that you work on position management *before* a whole-clothed tossing of ICs?
For example: if you examine the position deltas of the two verticals of your last IC -- when you put them on, versus when you sought/felt pressured to exit, you'd notice quite a difference. If you further compare that to the premium sought, ........an exposure/premium, risk/reward sort of deal.......
Perhaps some decision rules might fall out.
As well, if you put up a graph of the IV of your favorite underlying, plotted against the realized volatility, you might notice something quite powerful over the last 12-24 months. It doesn't mean that ICs are to be avoided, eschewed, tossed to the wind -- but maybe that *your* utilization might need to be less blind to the market.
I write from ungentle experience.
You do know that you could also buy IC's? You don't have to only sell them... you could take advantage of that increase in vix from 10 to 20
It is strange how some can go along for many years just printing money and then the market "changes". By the time the new pattern is discerned and we acquiesce to it, it changes yet again - perhaps to the prior pattern or maybe something new altogether. I went through the same situation. There is no such thing as predicting in the market. You just have to have enough tools and flexibility to make the adjustments necessary to adapt and stay positive. The biggest issue I have faced in my trading career are these upward runs that always go so much further than I ever think they will.
I am a bear by nature and feel comfortable sellingYou do know that you could also buy IC's? You don't have to only sell them... you could take advantage of that increase in vix from 10 to 20
I am a bear by nature and feel comfortable selling
Ouch... hasn't been very favorable for you then...
I am a bear by nature and feel comfortable selling
I am *very* uncomfortable buying -- it *creeps* me.
That said,
...And so what I'm doing now is, when I have to buy out of a position, I'll buy more than I sold. E.g. Expiring on Friday, I have SPX call spreads ranging from 2800 on up. I'm frightened ("frightened!!"
) by some still sitting at 2845, but I'm a lot less frightened that I might be, because of what I own wtf between 2800 and 2840. I just want this week to END, though.No wonder you got killed. Being a permanent bear in a raging bull market.I am a bear by nature and feel comfortable selling