So this isn't an attack on you, but I think an important way to think about thinking. In general we have an idea, in the scientific method we call it a hypothesis. Something that we might justify by hypothesizing event type A can't happen because B is true. So far no problem, we have a hypothesis out there and maybe we're starting to form a belief around it. Then someone reviews your work and says, actually every single time an event A has happened, and we have numerous examples, B was true. The human response to that is to fetch around for other reasons that A can't happen, even though your original reason for forming that belief turned out to be incorrect. That's why humans lived in caves eating raw meat for millennia. The scientific method would be to say, perhaps I should reconsider my hypothesis and any underlying beliefs I've formed because of it, given that the basis for it was shown to be incorrect, instead of or at least in addition to trying to find another basis to support my original hypothesis. That's hard to do. Hard for me and you, it's even hard for scientists to do, as we see so often in the scientific community. I'm an engineer by training so biased but I think they actually do a better job at this because the bridge collapses or the phone doesn't work if they fetch around rather than revising their hypothesis. This way of thinking doesn't have to be restricted to scientists and engineers though, it has great value in all walks of life, especially trading and portfolio management. Food for thought.