Looking at intrade

[samovar]

Quote from nazzdack:

That site "predicted" that John Kerry would win back in 2004 too. We'll see if it's more accurate this time around.

When exactly did it do that? According to a source cited on Wikipedia,

In the 2004 presidential election, the market favorite won the electoral vote in every state. This occurred when, even as late as election day, many pollsters and analysts were predicting a John Kerry victory. In Florida, a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call. The betting markets, however, correctly and consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade#Political_contracts

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Intrade picked a Bush win in '04.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from jonbig04:

This is completely non-partisan, but looking at intrade and other polls I think Obama is going to be a clear winner. It's just a guess, but to me thats what the evidence is pointing to.



Note: I never said anything about whether I thought should or should not win. It simply looks like he is going to win, to me.

Polls only give obama a small 2-4 point lead

http://www.newsmax.com/ruddy/obama_swing_voters/2008/10/09/138865.html

 

[jonbig04]

True, but really all things considered...if you were FORCED to bet...I think Obama has the edge right now.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

You know what's ironic (at least to me)?

I just saw an article from MARCH of this year where none other than Rupert Murdoch said (back then) that Obama would win.

I don't necessarily like the guy, but he's not anything less than triple sharp.

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/05/29/murdoch-obama-will-win/

 

[seneca_roman]

Quote from nazzdack:

That site "predicted" that John Kerry would win back in 2004 too. We'll see if it's more accurate this time around.

Huh-I did a quick Google and came up with:

"In 2004, Intrade correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in every single state, even those the pollsters thought too close to call."

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/gordon/29532

Other sources also state INTRADE Correctly called the 2004 election while the exit polls did not.

From Bloomberg :
"
Bush Widens His Lead Over Kerry Among Futures Markets Bettors

By Michael Forsythe

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush has widened his lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in online futures markets, matching trends in some voter and investor polls following the Republican convention three weeks ago.

Bids on futures contracts on the Dublin-based Intrade Exchange Internet yesterday gave Bush a 69 percent chance of winning. That's up from 49 percent on Aug. 13 and the highest since February. Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit political betting system run by the University of Iowa, gave Bush a 60 percent probability of victory, up from 50 percent on Aug. 21.
"

Seneca