Look at it like this and maybe the US bull market is quite young?

beerntrading said:
I'm still selling vol o_O

But I don't see it as a problem, the low volatility. In fact one of the points I made in my first post on this thread is that it's a symptom of market efficiency...neither bullish nor bearish. But either way I'm fine. I'll buy on the way up or buy when it heads down. I'm patient.
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At the very least, please hedge your positions! Please? Cookies if you do! Yummy ones! Wheee
 
Overnight said:
At the very least, please hedge your positions! Please? Cookies if you do! Yummy ones! Wheee
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Hedging is dismissed by the majority of traders as unnecessary, too expensive, and not as effective as other methods. So most people would say your advice is wrong.

Please feel free to show with examples how you successfully hedge your positions.
 
Overnight said:
At the very least, please hedge your positions! Please? Cookies if you do! Yummy ones! Wheee
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Oh, I hedge. It's actually the part of my strategy that has received the most consideration by far. There are weeks that a crash would actually put me ahead.
 
There is a soft kind of limit on how fast the markets can grow in the next ten years.

If the US GDP grows at 3.5% and the stock markets grows at 7% per year, then in 2027 then the market capitalization to GDP ratio is about 200%. In the height of stock bubble in 2000 this ratio was 145%.

If the eps in sp500 grows at 4.5% and the market returns at 7% annually, then the P-E ratio in 10 years will be about 24.

In any case it is hard to argue the the bull stock market is at a young age.
 
There's no way they'll let it drop more than like 5% or whatever.
Should keep going up most days for a good few more years yet
Initial 3k target for spx is guaranteed fairly soon
 
tomorton said:
Hedging is dismissed by the majority of traders as unnecessary, too expensive, and not as effective as other methods. So most people would say your advice is wrong.

Please feel free to show with examples how you successfully hedge your positions.
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Feel free to explore the calendar spreading I have been trying on and off for about 11 months. What I have been trying is just one simple way to hedge. There are many many other ways to hedge, and I am a very unsophisticated person. There are options on the futures, there are stock futures, there are inter-market spreads I have yet to explore... there is even the news and weather! :-| Read through my journal to see what I am on about.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/and-they-have-a-plan-live.306838/

I am no expert on hedging, and I wish I knew how to hedge my futures positions with options. I just work with what I understand. But I do understand that hedging is an important method of mitigating risk.

Remember, I work ONLY with futures. I do not trade stocks or ETFs or whatever. Keep that in mind. But it seems that no matter the product you are trading, hedging is necessary to mitigate your risk.
 
DeltaRisk said:
Wrong wrong wrong.

Credit has already been cut off.

Take the charts as you may, but this is what mom and pop see. They are always on the wrong side.
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Well, you are the pro...but, are'nt credit spreads still very low?
 
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