Longs convincing themselves mkt rally
- Thread starter riddler
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Quote from Jestersofmalice:
its crashing again
this is awesome. So predictable. Everyone should be short and making money. simples
Actually, the more reliable trade is go to cash for the summer, wait for the market drops that occur most summers, then buy valuation plays into the fall.
Anyone guessing on shorts went through a lot of pain over a long extended period of time. Shorting aggressively is an expensive, risky game. Those who claim otherwise haven't traded very long.
Anyone shorting now is way too late, in my opinion.
This is what you posted August 26th, 2010 :
What can we learn from this ? Well, first off, you exhibit an extreme bearish bias bordering on lunacy. Two, it can remind us of how the markets reacted last summer prior to a 30% rally in the fall. Three, it illutrates the dangers are being long in the summer months.
I have one thing to say to you. Valuation. Eventually, people get out of their selling funk and start noticing earnings numbers. And then they realize that strong companies have become oversold, hold all the cards in this economy, and on a historical basis should demand a higher share price.
So last year, you called 9000 on the Dow and where did it go ?
That's a gigantic miss. So there might be something flawed in your fundamental analysis there buddy.
No they are not. In fact, by any measure, anyone following GrandStuperCycle has lost huge money this year. There just has been no effective strategy to follow his advice and make money.
1. Longer term shorts got in on his advice last August 2010 and are still significantly underwater on SPY, and massively underwater if they shorted Gold on his recommendation.
2. Speculators buying near month puts on SPY got massacred almost every month for 11 months on his advice. If anyone was lucky enough to have missed the first 11 months, yes, he was profitable THIS MONTH.
3. Speculators buying short term puts on SPY ( say 3-6 months ahead ) not only paid huge premiums on those positions, but again got killed on the underlying for almost every conceivable entry and exit point.
I invite you to present ANY case that supports your theory that GrandStuperCycle's advice was a profitable strategy. To claim so is utterly irresponsible. Try something like this. You have $10,000 to invest every month and you follow his advice with that money.
Start August 31, 2010 and play it out until July 31, 2011. See how much of the 110,000 you have left, add another $10,000 for August. Have you really recovered the $120,000 by now ???
My math says not on your life.
Quote from Jestersofmalice:
its crashing again
this is awesome. So predictable. Everyone should be short and making money. simples
50 point drop in the ES since your post here.
Nice call.
Easy, aint it
Just like I'm going to call the bottom in my "Market Sub Outlook" thread.
Oh, bs. I posted clearly that I had a short position as early as May of this year. I'll even admit I lost money on that short position, because I was 2-4 weeks too early on my trade. Its in history. I also clearly stated that I missed the 1260-1350 rally because I held no position. Also in history.
I have also discussed seasonality with respect to equities numerous times, and referred to April 2011 as a key time frame to consider with respect to probability of corrections ( posted in 2010 ).
So you can blabber on with a bunch of bs but the real problem is such revisionist crap doesn't work when the history of posts is maintained on this site.
You want to go to war on this I will pick out EXACTLY what I said at various points and it will be VERY CLEAR that I am neither a permabull nor do I have a trading bias long or short. I already found a series of posts that help illustrate my views on the overall market. Its actually uncanny how well I pegged everything, even to the point of posting that I may be too early on my money losing shorts. Which simply reminds me of how important it is to rely more on solid instincts that can develop after observing and trading markets over several decades.
For Example, Posted MAY 7, 2011 :
Posted April 25. 2011 :
Posted September 4th, 2010 :
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Quote from Nine_Ender:
Buddy, you are so out of touch with the fundamentals !!!
WHAT BEAR MARKET ???? The Bear Market ended March 2009.
If you are unclear please note the level of all major markets then and now.
You want facts how about the major Canadian banks. They all made a cool BILLION dollars profit this QUARTER !!! That's not funny money that is real money that adds EQUITY for their shareholders. Meanwhile, Potash is being valued as a takover target at a minimum of $39 BILLION dollars !!! Their suiter has approx. $180 BILLION value btw, so they can afford it, and they are making large profits every single quarter. ONE MIGHT ASK WHY YOU IGNORE THESE ECONOMIC REALITIES.
The one thing you have right is there is a ton of retail money on the sideline that has been severely underutilized since March 2009. Why is that ? Well, a lot of people believe people like you who told them to bail from the markets and they missed out on a 40-50% return ( on average ) since. Yes, there is MORE likelihood of a market drop now then March 2009. But no, it is not likely until at least April 2011. And this is precisely why the markets may rise another 10-20% over the winter. People are not happy making 1% in their bank accounts, and Mutual Fund managers who believe the bear market crap cannot continually underperform their peers waiting for the "inevitable" sell off they believe in.
In conclusion, I happen to agree there are some headwinds the US market has to deal with in the future. But I'm thinking we're at least a year from those headwinds, and it is pointless to predict what will occur before it starts to occur. At that point, I will happily short as needed in what will no doubt be a much healthier time to do so. [/B][/QUOTE]