Longer Term Trades on Commodities

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apex82

I just thought I would post a couple nice trades I am watching on the weeklies. Nothing is guaranteed, but these are minimum 1:10, if not 1:50 risk reward with 75% odds if you can hold through the swings. I kept my charts fairly simple so everything is clear.

First is Crude. Looks like a great value buy here. It continues to wash out the weak longs and get the whole world short. I am liking this for a decent bounce with a fairly tight stop. You can put some on here and then add on pullbacks when there is confirmation. If 56 is broken, watch out below....
 

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Next is palladium. You have already missed buying the low tick, but at least it is showing some support. As with crude, you could put some on here and add on pullbacks if and when it breaks out. If it breaks though the lows fairly hard I would short any bounce.
 

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Not sure about oj, now.
But from my journal, 16/10/06,

"Further, i should point out, that ethanol and that part of the metals complex that isnt silver and gold, is waiting in the wings for serious speculators"

Strange, they turned on a dime at about that time.
Close enough, at any rate.
 
(1) Correct me if I'm wrong but your "palladium" chart is actually showing platinum. (2) Don't buy illiquid markets "hand over fist" unless you're willing to put the market up on yourself. (3) Try to focus on higher-volume markets unless you're trading smaller size. (4) For longer-term trades, try to be cognizant of seasonal tendencies in agricultural futures. If the weather stays warm, that orange juice trade could be a huge loser. We'll see what happens.
 
Yes, thanks for the correction, it is platinum. It shows you how much I look at these things. After posting I took a look at volume thinking I wanted to get some Platinum at the open the next day. Definately passed when I saw the liquidity. These trades are merely a prediction, the only one that seems feasible to trade is crude.

The day or 2 after posting, platinum shot through the roof.... looks like they were looking at my post.

Crude still holding great, it is definately going higher. It may just sit in this range until it gets a news catalyst.

Here is an updated chart of platinum... hopefully some of you bought a few.
 

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Copper looks nice for a longer term trade. I just shy away from buying anything at this point because I always like to buy the low tick. Its just something with my psychology. It looks like it may continue to range for awhile. If it breaks below that purple line at 2.857 strongly, short it with all you got. Just be aware of a washout, as they happen frequently in exhaustion zones.
 

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