Long term shorting leveraged ETF's

hi
i am Atef from egypt
please I want to understand you about Robert Pretcher Analysis for DJIA In his book- How to Call the Market Using the Elliot Wave Principle
about Fibonacci ratios In this image
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?6180007890.png
How fifth wave is equal to .618 of (wave 1 + wave 3)
As is shown in the picture with the fifth wave price equal 8893 , while the first wave and the third their length both equal 995 point
8.9 times of w1+w3
Tell me if I'm wrong
and If I was wrong, how Pretcher calculated it?
Thank you
With my best regards
 
Quote from jones247:

Would you mind giving more information on those percentages? Based on my cursory review, on March 1st FAS was at $25.27 and FAZ was at $17.48; as of August today (about noon-time) FAS is at $19.22 and FAZ is at $15.83. During this interim (from March til now), the sum aggregate of FAS & FAZ went from about $43 to about $47, but now is about $35. Therefore, shorting FAS & FAZ from March to now would have been profitable, based on these results.

The BIG CHALLENGE is having the opportunity to remain short on these etfs continuously from March to now, as it is highly likely that the shorts would have been called in at somepoint before you're profitable...

Walt
More...

Jones, ok, clearly you are new to this because FAZ/FAS reverse split umpteen times.

I will be talking in REVERSE SPLIT TERMS

MARCH 9TH
SHORT $50,000; FAS at $2.50
SHORT $50,000; FAZ was at $180

BY JULY
FAS is now $12, and you owe $200,000.. how are you going to pay up?

Of course if you could hold to n --> infinite, the etf will be at 0, but seriously, who wants to wait infinite years?

--
BOTTOM LINE: THERE IS NO -ARBITRAGE- OPPORTUNITY. LIKE ANY STRATEGY THAT YIELDS A HIGH POSITIVE RETURN, THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH STANDARD DEVIATION
 
Quote from WinstonTJ:

If you trade retail you will be called out of your shorts at the worst possible time - that is an almost certanty.

Also, the strategy REQUIRES rebalancing of your shorts - so its a bit of work - and if you can't get additional shares to short then you aren't hedged...
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ha ha.. +10.. murphy's law.. when u short.. they can call u any time.. and they will.. it has happened to me..

thou will get ruined... No one can take away the money from the big BOYS.
 
You're kidding with me, right??? I'm sure you know that a split or reverse split is capital neutral. Therefore, it would have no impact on the p&l of a short or a long position.

I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt... Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your point and someone else can clarify...


Quote from exaltedangel09:

Jones, ok, clearly you are new to this because FAZ/FAS reverse split umpteen times.

I will be talking in REVERSE SPLIT TERMS

MARCH 9TH
SHORT $50,000; FAS at $2.50
SHORT $50,000; FAZ was at $180

BY JULY
FAS is now $12, and you owe $200,000.. how are you going to pay up?

Of course if you could hold to n --> infinite, the etf will be at 0, but seriously, who wants to wait infinite years?

--
BOTTOM LINE: THERE IS NO -ARBITRAGE- OPPORTUNITY. LIKE ANY STRATEGY THAT YIELDS A HIGH POSITIVE RETURN, THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH STANDARD DEVIATION
More...
 
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