long term position trading -primarily etf's-

You are by no means the only one who muses on longer term matters.

There is a thread Global Macro Trading Journal in the Journals Forum, whose author Daal muses on longer term matters. He has also written a book.

Trading is all well and good, but having an eye on the horizon is also essential in my view.
 
justrading said:
You are by no means the only one who muses on longer term matters.

There is a thread Global Macro Trading Journal in the Journals Forum, whose author Daal muses on longer term matters. He has also written a book.

Trading is all well and good, but having an eye on the horizon is also essential in my view.
More...
Thanks for the information! I will check out that Thread!
I agree with it being essential to have an eye on the Horizon.
The Horizon appears distant , but eventually we do get much closer to it!
 
a PM asked me some Why's did i take the actions I wrote about-
Since i have already been a long fan of Vanguard- why am i paying an Adviser any fee when i could execute the same strategy myself-and save the Fee.
Good question - and i think the answer is Discipline - and Time-
A 12 position asset allocation approach with a laddered bond component and periodic rebalancing- is what i am willing to pay a Fee for-
First- while gainfully over employed- Time is a major factor- I have little spare time-
Psychology- The Guy I hired to execute this will not be emotionally attached to making the needed transactions when called to do so- I would be inclined to apply my trading mindset to an investing mindset -and i do not think they can co-exist- or that i can separate my bias .
The fault-if it is one- lies within myself - I have come to realize I am much more Risk adverse
than i would have initially thought. That is why I raised a large cash position a year ago in the retirement account-and - finally- think that was a early- but timely decision-
Before Yesterday's large decline - i think the average 401k account lost $7,000.00
I assume average is about 100k- What if that sees a 20% DECLINE?
People- myself included- make emotional decisions when our monies are concerned.
By having a "Portion" of my assets managed by an individual that does not give a damn about my "feelings' and about the market- fluctuations- he will reallocate as it is called for without any Bias.
A Portion in an annuity- You have to be careful here as it can be the ultimate shell game-
It is an expensive Insurance product that you get a stable guaranteed return- but you are paying a high premium for that kind of guarantee-
There are lots of trade-offs and various riders etc- but my adviser compared a number of them- and this one is conservative but will last for as long as my spouse and i survive and pass on the remainder to our beneficiaries., It also guarantees the principal to never decline- and provides a index gain component.
I chose to add an annuity because it guarantees the combined income of social security-
with the annuity - and will not be compromised should we have a major market correction.
(overdue IMHO) . It helps to simply guarantee that the bills are paid.
There may be better ways to diversify- but with my limited funds- this seemed to be a good 1st step in holding assets in different baskets -different exposures and not overlapping.

In the end- I am diversifying my investment approach- the purpose is to get some gains and reduce the risk in any single ONE approach- (Such as everything in your company IRA)
This feels right in both principle and Plan.
Had i been an active trader/investor with a proven track record- I would trust more in my own self-management., i do not feel I have either the time or the Savvy- of the forces at work.....
At this time- i keep the trading account open as i enjoy the challenge- approx 50 % of my account goes under other management- and the remaining 40% is still left for me to manage well or to micro manage.
 
Market rallied this week as oil moved higher.
BOOYAH! 3 days higher and a positive close on a Friday 1.22.16.

I caught snippets of what moved the markets- Draghi- made announcements promising continued easing- The FED Evaluation of punitive rate hikes seems to be off the table-Perhaps the Fed will give us a continuation of the present .25 rate for the next quarter.-without an increase. Perhaps this is because the economy is not as strong as predicted- growth is not as robust as expected. Perhaps we are still the best economy in a larger weakening global economy?
HYG is not collapsing after all...., Rally with the market-
Took a few positions just before the close- 3 up days seems to portend a move higher maY BE UNDERWAY.
PJP, DTN, Boil, TNA-
Pharma, Dividend payers, Nat gas 3x -and small caps bear.

All small positions- just expecting this is a short term bounce and don't want to be a flaming bear on the markets-
Nat gas underperforms the energy spike- Just for the exercise took a 3x in Boil- a sideways consolidation- As a blizzard warning is approaching the NE - perhaps Nat Gas will find a breakout of today's range- Winter has finally arrived-. A very small training position-

On the remaining entries- i did not enter into any trades until just prior to the market close.
Stocks have been closing higher since Wednesday- and closed strong this Friday-
As long as N Korea or IrAN does not launch a missILE at San Francisco this weekend-
Perhaps we get a continuation of an oversold bounce.

I took small positions- but i believe we should expect the market to find fundamental reasons to decline further. The Fed behind the curtain is now fully apparent- and so is the relationship with market gains and market policy-

Some years ago , WE eliminated any credit card debt from our Family budget- and no longer pay anyone -anything- because we borrowed money today to pay for at a later date.
Our government can continue to print debt- at an increasingly higher cost - to each of us taxpayers- despite how we may run our own households more fiscally conservative.

The Fed will speak later this coming week, and will reassure the markets that it will not rush to increase rates another .25 bp.
this in large part is due to a a much weaker economy than anticipated- meaning that the Fed was pre-emptive-early ; and that the rate increase was likely premature and optimistic.

I think any long trades should be short term duration- and a larger cash position is prudent on these rallies.
 
This year has started out rough for the markets- I may have some of this info incorrect- as i catch bits and pieces-
The Fed raised, initially felt they would get back closer to "Normal rates " (Haven't seen that in 7 years- global growth fears, (cheaper Oil should be a major boost to business & consumers), but is interpreted negatively. Big lay-offs and bankruptcies occurring in the energy industry as OIL is being supplied exceeding demand and the price declines- Eventually,
producers will throw in their hat, production will lessen, reserves will be tapped, prices will rise-
But a lot of countries live and breathe based on their energy production & sale to the rest of the world- It is also essential to their political stability. There is a lot at stake-
In the US, production has slowed, lay-offs have occurred in an industry that paid workers well- Now- "Do you want Fries with that?" may be what is available.
higher dollar affecting US industrials, exports- Markets are considered overvalued,
earnings appear to be declining- employment is not earth shattering- with many jobs added in low paying sectors
Student and Parent debt- is the so-called "Next Shoe" to drop- Great indebtedness to get an education that may not guarantee a decent paying job in the field one selected- But the debt will only accumulate- and not be forgiven-

For years, I have been familiar with Peter Schiff- Outspoken critic of Gov't/Fed Policy-
For Years he has been saying essentially the same thing- but eventually he may be proven to be correct. Back in 2007- a number of the Naysayers back then- Gartman, Battaglia, were right-

Schiff believes we are in a recession- NOW- and that the Fed will have to reverse course and go on to QE4- Worth a listen to get a contrarian's viewpoint.This was this past Wednesday- It will be interesting to see if he is correct- He says we are already in a Bear market- The US Dollar will have to collapse lower. The Fed will have to pullback and go on to another QE . Of course -perhaps he also has his own agenda. From a listen- it sounds as though he expects the Fed will have to take affirmative action-and again, and again- and perhaps that means we get massaged and reassured for another 4 or 5 years. Rally may go higher yet!


I actually watched a good portion of this Davidson video- I think it is well done and convincing - and he wants the viewer to react . Video is too long - but - the illustrations he uses to explain his belief that we are on the "verge" of a collapse are indeed worth a listen-
The "Truth" likely lies somewheres midrange - and Davidson (I think) is also promoting some self serving product- I didn't watch the entire video to see the promotions-

I think it is worth getting perspective from both sides-

Is this a correction? -10%
IS it more than a correction ? -20% Is it a Bear?
Is it a recession? In the making?

Could we actually go even lower?

OR, Is it up to the FED this coming week to take this week's bounce even higher?

Or- will the FED toe the line and not give in to the market's concerns? Will the FED
simply reassure with a passive - no policy change at present- statement?

HMMM- what about Earnings?
wHAT ABOUT jOBS?
iSN'T IT ODD THAT WHEN A COMPANY ANNOUNCES IT WILL CUT 10,000 JOBS-The stock price rises????
That seems counter-intuitive - a stock becomes valued higher when it cuts workers due to the decline of orders and trying to meet profitability goals.

Would it not be far better to see a positive stock response to a company plans to HIRE 10,000 workers over the next year to meet increased demand for it's products and services.

2 totally different messages- The 1st suggests that things just are not working out - so to shore up a failing business- workers are being discharged to cut the costs to meet the lower demand for the product.

The 2nd message says that workers are being hired to meet the increasing demand for the product.

Which would you prefer? Which company would you think you would prefer to invest in?
Shrinking demand, shrinking workforce? Growing demand, growing workforce?

I think one has to watch carefully in this market- because it has become much more
critical and is willing to toss out unrealized growth with unrealized expectations.
Market is getting a PE reset- gradually it would appear.
 
I think that was correct-It does not matter the specific company-
I think it is typical that the market loves it when a company slashes it's work force-
"Getting lean and mean"
While the market loves it when a business takes such actions to improve it's balance sheet-and bottom line- that would seem to be a very shallow reason to see a stock price increase-Consider what led up to this course of action.
Everyone wins when a business sees expanding growth and needs to add to the workforce to meet the increase demand of it's product or service-
Because a company takes cost reduction measures to improve it's bottom line may simply be a short term bandaid for a larger ailment . While it may improve the net results for a quarter or two- One should wonder about the WHY - and if the initial reason for the WHY still exists -despite the cuts in the work force-
And share buy-backs- another bandaid? Or good value purchase? While it would seem to be done to encourage the market to believe the company thinks it's a buying opportunity- I think Sbux-Shultz? CEO said he's backing the truck up and buying shares at this decline.
The difference is- They are expanding their stores and their growth- while the other is in decline.

Glass half empty or half full?
I tend to think such occurrences are indicative of how much of a struggling economy we really do have- and what will be the replacement going forward- Not just in energy-but it's certainly a disrupted entire global industry- extending to many areas .....in the world economy.
It was only in just the last few relatively recent years that we became a new energy technology producer of magnitude-and in those few years a lot of well paying good jobs were developed, and a lot of optimism was surrounding this entire field of energy and it's benefit to the economy.
Sure didn't last long- Boatloads of those folks working out in the fields have been laid off
and more to come it looks like- but this is just a recent example-Consider all of the downstream 2nd tier businesses that have been devastated by this decline-
I'm letting my bias and very limited understanding of Economics show here-.
Since I'm surrounded by trees- perhaps I don't see the forest-Change is inevitable-
Technology- and all the swings in social and political - and economic forces- will work it's way throughout the country, the world- "Future Shock" is ongoing and present -disruption brings forth new evolutions. There will always be casualties. Businesses will adapt , hire new employees-The energy company of today that survives will buy those that did not for pennies on the dollar.
For every energy job lost - how many other jobs were supported - by other industries-
from the Machinery companies- the real estate-the local diner- etc- grocery store- tax base-etc.
I think there's a greater & wider impact than what at first it appears.
Fits into the larger Bearish scenario - IMO-
But my bias is often wrong! If everything else is doing well in the economy, the portion that is energy accounts for ?%-a small impact?
 
sowterdad said:
Market rallied this week as oil moved higher.
BOOYAH! 3 days higher and a positive close on a Friday 1.22.16.

I caught snippets of what moved the markets- Draghi- made announcements promising continued easing- The FED Evaluation of punitive rate hikes seems to be off the table-Perhaps the Fed will give us a continuation of the present .25 rate for the next quarter.-without an increase. Perhaps this is because the economy is not as strong as predicted- growth is not as robust as expected. Perhaps we are still the best economy in a larger weakening global economy?
HYG is not collapsing after all...., Rally with the market-
Took a few positions just before the close- 3 up days seems to portend a move higher maY BE UNDERWAY.
PJP, DTN, Boil, TNA-
Pharma, Dividend payers, Nat gas 3x -and small caps bear.

All small positions- just expecting this is a short term bounce and don't want to be a flaming bear on the markets-
Nat gas underperforms the energy spike- Just for the exercise took a 3x in Boil- a sideways consolidation- As a blizzard warning is approaching the NE - perhaps Nat Gas will find a breakout of today's range- Winter has finally arrived-. A very small training position-

On the remaining entries- i did not enter into any trades until just prior to the market close.
Stocks have been closing higher since Wednesday- and closed strong this Friday-
As long as N Korea or IrAN does not launch a missILE at San Francisco this weekend-
Perhaps we get a continuation of an oversold bounce.

I took small positions- but i believe we should expect the market to find fundamental reasons to decline further. The Fed behind the curtain is now fully apparent- and so is the relationship with market gains and market policy-

Some years ago , WE eliminated any credit card debt from our Family budget- and no longer pay anyone -anything- because we borrowed money today to pay for at a later date.
Our government can continue to print debt- at an increasingly higher cost - to each of us taxpayers- despite how we may run our own households more fiscally conservative.

The Fed will speak later this coming week, and will reassure the markets that it will not rush to increase rates another .25 bp.
this in large part is due to a a much weaker economy than anticipated- meaning that the Fed was pre-emptive-early ; and that the rate increase was likely premature and optimistic.

I think any long trades should be short term duration- and a larger cash position is prudent on these rallies.
More...
mONDAY 1.25.16-
hAD THE OPP TO CATCH SOME MARKET ACTION AT TIMES-
boil POSITION GAPPED DOWN AT THE OPEN- My initial stops had been wide- I thought the recent base was constructive- and thought we'd get a pop again to boost energy/Nat gas higher-Although the supply available is HUGE- similar to Oil- driving price lower and lower-
Back in Dec price dropped to $12.50- and had a substantial rally - This is a small spec trade on this leveraged ETF- that went straight against me at today's open.
It has recovered much of the initial loss, and I've moved from the wide stop I had at $14 to $14.80 .
TZA-just got notified it stopped out $61.71 almost enough profit to balance out Boil -


Boil still has promise- A multi-day consolidation, today's slightly lower gap seeing a recovery may prove to yield better results before the day is out- I'll be cautiously optimistic and try to check it out later in the day if possible-
boil 10 1.25.16.png
boil daily 1.25.16.png
 
tza 10 1.25.126.png
sowterdad said:
mONDAY 1.25.16-
hAD THE OPP TO CATCH SOME MARKET ACTION AT TIMES-
boil POSITION GAPPED DOWN AT THE OPEN- My initial stops had been wide- I thought the recent base was constructive- and thought we'd get a pop again to boost energy/Nat gas higher-Although the supply available is HUGE- similar to Oil- driving price lower and lower-
Back in Dec price dropped to $12.50- and had a substantial rally - This is a small spec trade on this leveraged ETF- that went straight against me at today's open.
It has recovered much of the initial loss, and I've moved from the wide stop I had at $14 to $14.80 .
TZA-just got notified it stopped out $61.71 almost enough profit to balance out Boil -


Boil still has promise- A multi-day consolidation, today's slightly lower gap seeing a recovery may prove to yield better results before the day is out- I'll be cautiously optimistic and try to check it out later in the day if possible-
View attachment 161103 View attachment 161104
More...
TZA TRADE-
This worked out in my direction
Entry was close to the Point of Failure-based on that day's price action.
What is not evident from the short term chart, is that this day was a pullback following multiple days higher since the beginning of the year. The primary trend is higher, and I am considering a reentry using this swing low as the higher stop.
 
sowterdad said:
View attachment 161106
TZA TRADE-
This worked out in my direction
Entry was close to the Point of Failure-based on that day's price action.
What is not evident from the short term chart, is that this day was a pullback following multiple days higher since the beginning of the year. The primary trend is higher, and I am considering a reentry using this swing low as the higher stop.
More...
Boil surprisingly has pushed higher- at one time above my entry- stop has been raised but still below the entry.
Went back into TZA when it pushed above the recent consolidation where i stopped out on,
but could not get a fill close to the bid-ask spread- although I went higher in increments of $.20
over the ask-and finally got a late fill near the 2 pm high-I was well above the bid-ask price-with several attempts and i assume it was due to being less than a full 100 shares. Chased the breakout of that pm range and got a really high fill $63.27.

Boil stopped out $15.18- Still in a sideways base- but i'll consider today as just fortunate that it did not become a 15% or 20% decline. CHoppy price jumps intraday-with large gaps in Boil-and just 100k or so in volume.
TZA is 3M in volume-
As i toy around with these- I'll try for a limit of $64.70 as price is picking up momentum, stop up to $63- can't stay on line this last hr-
tza 2nd trade 1.25.16.png
 
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