long term position trading -primarily etf's-

[sowterdad]

Tuesday follow-up- While the markets & my 2 positions gapped open higher- for what appeared to be a nice early gain- only to slide back as the day progressed-ITA held up better initially than DTN- but I waited for a reversal to the upside but decided i just got it wrong- raised my stops higher-late am and took the loss- approx -$30.00.
Will see how the day closes-I have no open positions-
You would expect that at some point- declining Oil prices would eventually not be enough to pull the market lower - but presently the Oil influence is still holding the reins.
Perhaps we need a good old solid MidEast war and oil disruption to give the markets a boost?
Not wishing that on anyone- It goes to illustrate the influence of some of the macro themes
the market reacts to.
As I stopped out on the trades- i was considering going after the rising volatility -but decided not to chase into what may be a market building a short term base- Today's move perhaps the 1st attempt reaction higher- Perhaps we'll muddle around sideways for a few days?
Lunch is over- See what happens at the EOD

will try to not be too long winded-and only time to discuss 1 trade- choose the ITA trade.
Consider in the prior comparisom of the past year- ITA is by far a 'safer' trade than the DTN trade. Just a footnote here -( that I am borrowing - nothing original here-) it is perhaps
well worth the time it takes to do some comparisons when one has multiple choices .....
The day ended up closing higher after all!
Can i cuss here? Friggin Oil seemed to derail what had started off as a market rally-
I could not watch much but a few glimpses intraday after the Open and then an early Lunch where i raised stops-

Both positions were showing nice gains at the open- thanks to my taking a position the day before at the close- Gap open higher- what's not to like? Come back a few hours later and the profits are all but gone and price is tunneling lower like a mole on the 7th green.
Set some stops higher because it looks like the entry level s will be breached- and Sure Enough- Stops got hit as the decline continued. Latter Day, the market bottomed, and turned and closed higher- almost right at the gap open level-
Above that is now a potential Buy-Stop entry level.

I have noticed in the past on a faster time frame chart- What appears to be a 1st reaction move higher often fails- Today illustrates that same concept -
What is noteable- is that there was finally a slowing in the selling yesterday, a sideways basing action- and a stronger move closing higher- it all setup nicely for a reversal move continuing today.
got scuttled by Oil declining further (there is that MACRO influence!)
While price made a serious pullback, it failed to drop below the yesterday Base lows.
Indeed , it came close to moving back up to the Gap higher open at the Close-
This now becomes a choice to purchase a breakout above "resistance" .
A basing action has been set- 2 reaction high moves have now occurred in 1 dAy rejecting the prior declining trend- I think this sets up for a positive move higher.
As i write this- The President is about to give his State of the Union- and an American
Navy boat in the Persian Gulf with mechanical problems drifted into Iranian seas and the sailors have been "detained" by IRAN- This may turn out to be Nothing- and the Sailors released quickly- or IRAN could stall- This might be the straw that rattles the fragile markets
-Will reassess the considered Buy-Stop based on this new "News"

 

[sowterdad]

will try to not be too long winded-and only time to discuss 1 trade- choose the ITA trade.
Consider in the prior comparisom of the past year- ITA is by far a 'safer' trade than the DTN trade. Just a footnote here -( that I am borrowing - nothing original here-) it is perhaps
well worth the time it takes to do some comparisons when one has multiple choices .....
The day ended up closing higher after all!
Can i cuss here? Friggin Oil seemed to derail what had started off as a market rally-
I could not watch much but a few glimpses intraday after the Open and then an early Lunch where i raised stops-

Both positions were showing nice gains at the open- thanks to my taking a position the day before at the close- Gap open higher- what's not to like? Come back a few hours later and the profits are all but gone and price is tunneling lower like a mole on the 7th green.
Set some stops higher because it looks like the entry level s will be breached- and Sure Enough- Stops got hit as the decline continued. Latter Day, the market bottomed, and turned and closed higher- almost right at the gap open level-
Above that is now a potential Buy-Stop entry level.

I have noticed in the past on a faster time frame chart- What appears to be a 1st reaction move higher often fails- Today illustrates that same concept -
What is noteable- is that there was finally a slowing in the selling yesterday, a sideways basing action- and a stronger move closing higher- it all setup nicely for a reversal move continuing today.
got scuttled by Oil declining further (there is that MACRO influence!)
While price made a serious pullback, it failed to drop below the yesterday Base lows.
Indeed , it came close to moving back up to the Gap higher open at the Close-
This now becomes a choice to purchase a breakout above "resistance" .
A basing action has been set- 2 reaction high moves have now occurred in 1 dAy rejecting the prior declining trend- I think this sets up for a positive move higher.
As i write this- The President is about to give his State of the Union- and an American
Navy boat in the Persian Gulf with mechanical problems drifted into Iranian seas and the sailors have been "detained" by IRAN- This may turn out to be Nothing- and the Sailors released quickly- or IRAN could stall- This might be the straw that rattles the fragile markets
-Will reassess the considered Buy-Stop based on this new "News" View attachment 160579 View attachment 160579

I did not place the buy-stop order on ITA-instead of getting a premarket open break, It was later and the ITA had gapped a bit on the open, but turned and was heading lower- along with Spy on oil concerns -again-
I bought a small position in TVIX @ $8.25 @ approx 10:47 am. stop-loss below the low @ $7.55. Bought 100 SDS $22.15 @11:05.
I will apply today's opening lows as the stop.

 

[sowterdad]

I did not place the buy-stop order on ITA-instead of getting a premarket open break, It was later and the ITA had gapped a bit on the open, but turned and was heading lower- along with Spy on oil concerns -again-
I bought a small position in TVIX @ $8.25 @ approx 10:47 am. stop-loss below the low @ $7.55. Bought 100 SDS $22.15 @11:05.
I will apply today's opening lows as the stop.

Chose to split the position stops-

 

[sowterdad]

Nice

Chose to split the position stops-
View attachment 160601

I may regret this - but I will hold these 2 positions overnight-
Nice moves higher in SDS & TVIX 3:41-

 

[sowterdad]

Nice

I may regret this - but I will hold these 2 positions overnight-
Nice moves higher in SDS & TVIX 3:41-

Doing the EOD review-the primary question is WHAT will happen tomorrow?
I will raise the stops on the trade to ensure I lock in some gains-
If a Time Opportunity presents-often it does not- I will try to view the market open in real time.
I did not take the ITA buy-stop trade- This was not a matter of market prowess- simply a bit too busy at the day Job to take any time to place the order pre-market.
Had i gone with the early open- ITA gapped higher as i expected- but it quickly rolled over and declined all day.
i ended up going Long on the market weakness- and caught a nice up move- holding overnight.

 

[sowterdad]

Thurs 1.14.15 update-
Didn't get a break until 11:30 am OR THEREABOUTS.-Seeing the 2 positions in decline- but had an earlier bounce back higher - I set a stop-loss tightly under both TVIX and SDS- Stops were hit a few moments after placement- TVIX cost was $8.25 exit $9.14 SDS cost $22.15 exit $22.69 Had an intraday high of $23.49.
I then turned and with some remaining cash took an Inverse Vix trade-XIV which is my sole open position.
Had a short lunch- back to work and this moment for a break- Would like to take more time and do a better job of analyzing the recent trades- Nice to get the direction right and to be able to net some gains- The opportunity still does not present itself often intraday to spend time eyeing the markets. Closing up shop now mid afternoon- might catch the close.
Lots to consider.

 

[sowterdad]

Thurs 1.14.15 update-
Didn't get a break until 11:30 am OR THEREABOUTS.-Seeing the 2 positions in decline- but had an earlier bounce back higher - I set a stop-loss tightly under both TVIX and SDS- Stops were hit a few moments after placement- TVIX cost was $8.25 exit $9.14 SDS cost $22.15 exit $22.69 Had an intraday high of $23.49.
I then turned and with some remaining cash took an Inverse Vix trade-XIV which is my sole open position.
Had a short lunch- back to work and this moment for a break- Would like to take more time and do a better job of analyzing the recent trades- Nice to get the direction right and to be able to net some gains- The opportunity still does not present itself often intraday to spend time eyeing the markets. Closing up shop now mid afternoon- might catch the close.
Lots to consider.
View attachment 160644
View attachment 160645
View attachment 160646

DIDN'T SEE THAT TRAIN COMING! So much for calculating Risk based on setting a stops-
When the market gaps down on the open- stops -unless limit -become a Sell at Market=-
35 sold $18.36 & 35 sold $18.37. No time to snivel today-

 

[sowterdad]

DIDN'T SEE THAT TRAIN COMING! So much for calculating Risk based on setting a stops-
When the market gaps down on the open- stops -unless limit -become a Sell at Market=-
35 sold $18.36 & 35 sold $18.37. No time to snivel today-

While I thought I was getting a 'feel' for the market- yesterday's trade and overnight hold proves that a lot of sentiment can change overnight!
The net loss on the trade- entry $20.10 - loss of $1.64 or an -8% loss.
While this loss of over $140.00 on a single trade stings sharply-Let's consider what may have been done right- and also wrong with the trade.
It was a counter-trend trade- I tried to trade the flip side of the prior winning trades that were short the market- As the market appears to be putting in some oversold rallies. On the faster time frame chart, it appeared that the entry was valid- with a positive higher close.
The decision to HOLD overnight is the EOD trader's universe- Elements- like a day job - may offer little opportunity to view the markets in real time. The decision to hold overnight-or longer - comes with additional Risk for loss as this trade demonstrates- but also offers the opportunity to be in the position when it gaps higher in your favor the next open. Having a good sense of where the market is trending - and i got caught assuming a follow through the next day-for a bounce-higher- would suggest taking most trades WITH the trend- not betting on counter-trend bounces as i did.
One fortunate choice i made along the theme of not overly trusting a counter trend trade to last is that I did not take a leveraged Inverse position. Had i done so- the loss on this trade would have been 2x or 3x higher. possibly - 16% or -24% on a -+2x or +3x leverage trade.
The loss of $140.00 - while substantial for my typical losses- is slightly above a -1% account value loss. (Can't get the calculator App to open!) And, it was - thanks to being held to the single long trade due to waiting on cash to free- the only long exposure I took-
Which brings up a good point- IF I make the assumption that the markets will rally- or sell-off- Holding multiple different trades likely end up having the same or similar exposure as the broader market direction goes- So, if i hold 5 positions each with a 2% stop- My portfolio might find it has a -10% loss on any single market swing if the trades are all correlated.

: Had i taken a 2x short trade Thursday at the close -TVIX- and sold the long XIV-
TVIX gained 20% today- TVix is the 2x- but leverage works in both directions-
In your favor and against you.
I will take smaller leveraged positions and shorter term holds in the future.
I took a chance with this trade- it looked promising- I didn't expect to get taken out on one of the widest market open drops of the year! Glad it was not an all-or nothing gamble!

time to put the bull horns back into the closet- and dose with moth balls!

 

[sowterdad]

Met for a 2nd time with a financial Adviser this afternoon. A "Fiduciary" adviser.
since this is a trading website- feel free to skip this post-The Powers that be allow me some freedom to occasionally ramble about such things- I haven't read enough other threads to see if that ever comes up in discussion- but most of what i read here - is about the Here and now of Trading- There may be other threads that cover the important subject of "Here and Then"- meaning a time projected out into the future.
Anyone reading this may be the exception to the majority- but it's tough to assess since myself and most of us think we are indeed exceptional and not average. Most of what is written here applies to myself- and my life planning.

Can i repeat that? Most of us think we are not Average- BUT, by definition- the Majority of us are, indeed, just Average.

If you have any interest in long term retirement planning- and just might concede that a Plan B is simply a good back-up to just a single approach (Nasa has built in redundant back ups for critical mission components) and your future long term plan is indeed a critical component for a life after trading-or apart from trading.

Since i have not proven much with my recent Trading- that's a Given! WHY should anything i ramble about long term planning/retirement be given any more focus than my trading ramblings?
At first- long term planning seems to be not the focus of this website-That's understandable- locking in short term gains and achieving consistency in one's trading is where most here are focused.
Having a short-term trading plan is starting point #1. But it should be starting point #2-5?
There are a lot of other things in one's life that should be financed before one starts a trading account- Many do- on a shoe string hoping to make their life more stable and profitable.
85% WILL fail- nOT YOUR FAULT- You are underfunded and don't know it.
you don't have the experience or screen time and don't know it.
You have not experienced anything but a Bull market and don't know that the universe can warp and cut you in half.
You have been sold an idea that if you just grasp and execute a trading concept- indicator-approach- riches will be yours.
I am speaking to the guy like me- just an average guy that wants to do better for himself and his family for the long term

Let's assume you are the Exception and become the profitable trader-
What is your Plan B to roll over some of your excess gains into a separate account that has less exposure to Risk- Just in case the Meteor comes breaking through and your overly large positions are burned to a crisp.....
Let's assume you are like myself and perhaps simply just An Average Trader .
We will over-trade- we will under trade-We will have winning trades and we will have losing trades and we will be Engaged! We think we are exercising a great deal of control- and we will underperform the indexes over time.
What is our Plan B? In school years- you get a report card every quarter-
In Trading - we are now stepping up to higher college standards- And an F is not a C because the majority of the class also got an F on the trade- They have some kind of make you feel good term to tell you that you are simply not cutting the mustard but don't want to hurt your feelings! In Trading- the bottom line end results are what counts.
An F is an F because you Failed to make a profit on the trade!
I woke up one day and realized that i had nothing prepared for retirement- and started to scramble. Life has it's way of demanding Tolls for having children, better housing, cars, lifestyle, medical care, and even some entertainment- It's tough to gain perspective on a gradual improvement in one's lifestyle. It is what my generation expected and received-
yOU- THE YOUNGER GENERATION WILL NOT FIND IT COMES AS QUICKLY AS ONE EXPECTS.

In the end- If you are waiting to start a plan for that long away day in the future- it will be on your ass before you realize it- Yes- you had all the bil;ls the kids- the college- and there were a few other reasons along the way - but you have NOTHING PLANNED OR SET ASIDE- for your long term future- You will make it by putting it all on RED!
your 1st responsibility is to not become a liability to yourself or your family.
DON'T BE SO BUSY IN lIFE TODAY THAT YOU FAIL TO LOOK INTO THE FUTURE TOMORROW!

 

[sowterdad]

Met for a 2nd time with a financial Adviser this afternoon. A "Fiduciary" adviser.
since this is a trading website- feel free to skip this post-The Powers that be allow me some freedom to occasionally ramble about such things- I haven't read enough other threads to see if that ever comes up in discussion- but most of what i read here - is about the Here and now of Trading- There may be other threads that cover the important subject of "Here and Then"- meaning a time projected out into the future.
Anyone reading this may be the exception to the majority- but it's tough to assess since myself and most of us think we are indeed exceptional and not average. Most of what is written here applies to myself- and my life planning.

Can i repeat that? Most of us think we are not Average- BUT, by definition- the Majority of us are, indeed, just Average.

If you have any interest in long term retirement planning- and just might concede that a Plan B is simply a good back-up to just a single approach (Nasa has built in redundant back ups for critical mission components) and your future long term plan is indeed a critical component for a life after trading-or apart from trading.

Since i have not proven much with my recent Trading- that's a Given! WHY should anything i ramble about long term planning/retirement be given any more focus than my trading ramblings?
At first- long term planning seems to be not the focus of this website-That's understandable- locking in short term gains and achieving consistency in one's trading is where most here are focused.
Having a short-term trading plan is starting point #1. But it should be starting point #2-5?
There are a lot of other things in one's life that should be financed before one starts a trading account- Many do- on a shoe string hoping to make their life more stable and profitable.
85% WILL fail- nOT YOUR FAULT- You are underfunded and don't know it.
you don't have the experience or screen time and don't know it.
You have not experienced anything but a Bull market and don't know that the universe can warp and cut you in half.
You have been sold an idea that if you just grasp and execute a trading concept- indicator-approach- riches will be yours.
I am speaking to the guy like me- just an average guy that wants to do better for himself and his family for the long term

Let's assume you are the Exception and become the profitable trader-
What is your Plan B to roll over some of your excess gains into a separate account that has less exposure to Risk- Just in case the Meteor comes breaking through and your overly large positions are burned to a crisp.....
Let's assume you are like myself and perhaps simply just An Average Trader .
We will over-trade- we will under trade-We will have winning trades and we will have losing trades and we will be Engaged! We think we are exercising a great deal of control- and we will under perform the indexes over time.
What is our Plan B? In school years- you get a report card every quarter-
In Trading - we are now stepping up to higher college standards- And an F is not a C because the majority of the class also got an F on the trade- They have some kind of make you feel good term to tell you that you are simply not cutting the mustard but don't want to hurt your feelings! In Trading- the bottom line end results are what counts.
An F is an F because you Failed to make a profit on the trade!
I woke up one day and realized that i had nothing prepared for retirement- and started to scramble. Life has it's way of demanding Tolls for having children, better housing, cars, lifestyle, medical care, and even some entertainment- It's tough to gain perspective on a gradual improvement in one's lifestyle. It is what my generation expected and received-
yOU- THE YOUNGER GENERATION WILL NOT FIND IT COMES AS QUICKLY AS ONE EXPECTS.

In the end- If you are waiting to start a plan for that long away day in the future- it will be on your ass before you realize it- Yes- you had all the bil;ls the kids- the college- and there were a few other reasons along the way - but you have NOTHING PLANNED OR SET ASIDE- for your long term future- You will make it by putting it all on RED!
your 1st responsibility is to not become a liability to yourself or your family.
DON'T BE SO BUSY IN lIFE TODAY THAT YOU FAIL TO LOOK INTO THE FUTURE TOMORROW!

iN MEETING WITH A FINANCIAL PLANNER-
The end result is that i will put approx some of my assets into an annuity fund that guarantees a distribution plus a percentage of any market gain- and protects against any market decline. the principal amount is protected from Day1. Will never decline. limited to taking out just 10%/YEAR FOR 10 YEARS. There are no fees- There is a market match -2% based on the tracking index.
at this moment of market indecision, it seems particularly appropriate- while it limits the upside gain- it protects from the downside loss- As we saw in 2008- a 40% decline in value was possible.This guarantee protects from that downside- while it also reduces the upside-
Some of my other assets will be placed into a diversified stock & bond portfolio -12-15 positions with rebalancing on going- and mONTHLY CONTACT With the adviser.
The asset allocation model is set up with mostly Vanguard Funds.
Funds will be rebalanced Monthly- as needed if out of alignment.
Contact with the fund managers will be held monthly.
Cost will be 1.25% total annually- that includes all management fees. Since Vanguard funds are the primary allocations- the expense ratios are minimal and include the monthly reallocation. Note that one can find similar robo asset allocations for even a much lower fee-However, this guidance comes with Monthly personal Human adviser contact , periodic rebalancing and a tailored approach to one's Risk tolerance and time of needing to use the assets. When i consider that many of the mutual funds i hold in my IRA essentially charge fees that well exceed the cost of the periodic rebalancing and strategy allocation model-
I think these fees represent a fair value- and are greatly offset because they employ a Vanguard approach-

As i told the Adviser in today's interview- I already am aware of the advantage of employing Vanguards funds- I even have a separate broker account with Vanguard's low cost approach-
There are other funds out there with lower cost charges- Robo funds under a .50 ER
But if i want to speak to a Person that will actually LOOK at my account- I don't mind paying a small amount above the bare minimum. So, i think paying a 1-1.25% ANNUAL FEE ON VERY LOW COST MANAGED FUNDS -$625.00/year for a 50k account.
If thaT FUND manager calls me once a month as promised and talks with me about my account--and makes account adjustments- That $625 fee is divided by 12 months- or about $52 .00 per month or $13.00/week to watch & re balance my account
Let me do the math here again- What do i value my time at? If i can hav e a professional and unemotional re-balancing occur without my participation-at $13.00 /hr/wk- I think this represents a good value for service rendered.,
Previously, i have been to another adviser that also presented some annuities and market approaches- but i felt I WAS IN THE SHELL GAME- wATCH THE MOVING TARGET....
There is a lot to watch out for - in the financial Investment world- and every Buyer should be wary of who they are dealing with.
If any of this rings a bell with you- someone reading this in a situation where you can relate-
I would recommend that you seek multiple opinions - Since i am far from qualified to provide any financial advice to a anyone much less my daughter's hampster,,,
But if you want a second opinion of what you are presently being offered as financial solutions and want to seek a 2nd Opinion- send me a PM and i will provide you the link to the person i am dealing with and believe is reputable to offer you that second opinion. Getting that second opinion at No cost to you might give you the confidence that you are solid where you are at presently- or might suggest that you should consider other options.

I have No past experience with this individual or Company- but i believe they indeed are the real Fiduciary Advisers they claim to be. i think everyone should seek out a similar type of unbiased adviser - in person ideally. At least to discuss plan B with!
i guess i forgot to add- i am not sure of the ET site policies on "promoting' some one else's commercial endeavor-and i do not want to violate that- so, If asked by PM i will provide a link to the Adviser I am choosing to use.