long term position trading -primarily etf's-

Sunday 12.13.15-
Outstanding Weather +70 degrees mid December!- I don't understand all the Ruckus about this global warming- ready to fire up the grill!-Had a great spicy dog at Lowes today with sauerkraut-
While I DIDN'T SPEND ANY TIME FOCUSED ON TRADING OVER THE WEEKEND-
Did catch a replay tonight on CNBC of Cramer- SELL<SELL<SELL
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/cramers-game-plan-its-time-to-sell-sell-sell.html

At times- Cramer makes sense- I think his Sell-Sell-Sell concerning the high yield bond market HYG is right - conversely- look at the muni bonds- One fund i can access is AMHIX-
Not recommending it per se because i do not pay aNY LOAD OR COMMISSIONS -to invest in that fund- I am simply pointing out that ALL bond funds are not \created equal-
I caught the tail end of a financial advisors' radio show today- The Theme is to protect yourself from the possible market upcoming decline- and choose a safe approach vs a more speculative approach.
Which brings forth the eternal unknown question- Where will the market be in 6 months- 12 months- 3 years?
I think Investors - and certainly traders- are more sensitive to the fluctuations that occur that push prices higher- or cause them to decline.
Has the market fundamentally changed? For How long has the market been so focused on the FED statements concerning policy and rates- that it supersedes the long term essentials of valuations- ?
What is the reward vs the risk ?
When will you know if the hand you are dealt is a fair hand - or will be interpreted by a market policy statement as a positive or a negative?
I think a trader today - and perhaps myself- needs to recognize where the major forces
in the market are positioned and become more tactical in trade executions. When you are trying to assess something as obtuse as a future Fed policy statement- and how the market will react- it is certainly a crap shoot- We are waiting on a Fed policy statement this week.
WHY? What will be the market reaction?
This is what you base your trading approach on.
The chart in hand may look bullish- but if the interpretation of the Fed's policy statement causes reasons for "concerns' - Chart be damned- Price is selling lower.
This points out that we must understand and interpret the larger environment- because - for the most part- as goes the tide- goes the market.
 
The Fed spoke today, Finally raised a .25 basis point- and moderate language going forward. the wires of the puppeteer are well exposed- and the Tide is incoming- Markets moved higher across the boards- The expected Rate increase was declared along with dovish forward guidance. The markets rallied!

I was not able to view the markets intraday- but have placed limit Buy orders in Tech, SPY, Healthcare and Biotech after the close- as all of these sectors moved higher today. I also selected DTN to be an active trade- A dividend fund...
Ideally this rally has some legs after the long awaited Fed announcement.
I did not want to step in early- but now tghat we have the Fed pronouncement-
positive announcement- The initial market reaction is positive today- This should have some positive follow thru- and if it does not, i would assume it is foretelling a market that is in doubt.
 
sowterdad said:
The Fed spoke today, Finally raised a .25 basis point- and moderate language going forward. the wires of the puppeteer are well exposed- and the Tide is incoming- Markets moved higher across the boards- The expected Rate increase was declared along with dovish forward guidance. The markets rallied!

I was not able to view the markets intraday- but have placed limit Buy orders in Tech, SPY, Healthcare and Biotech after the close- as all of these sectors moved higher today. I also selected DTN to be an active trade- A dividend fund...
Ideally this rally has some legs after the long awaited Fed announcement.
I did not want to step in early- but now that we have the Fed pronouncement-
positive announcement- The initial market reaction is positive today- This should have some positive follow thru- and if it does not, i would assume it is foretelling a market that is in doubt.
More...
I got my Arse kicked today- as my positions filled as the markets started higher- and then turned South. I still do not know what caused the directional turn lower- but the major indexes all lost ground-
My biggest loser was TQQQ which stopped out for a -5% loss
PJP and XBI were the other 2 positions that filled on higher moves, but both closed down - 1.5% approx.
I had thought I would have had the opportunity to catch the market action at break or lunch- but my attention was needed else wheres- it was very late afternoon before i could glimpse the markets.
I had set initially wider stops- and i was surprised to see the TQQQ position had actually declined that far-
I see a decline of $184.00 - not the loss, but the difference in value from yesterday's open.
This is for 3 positions- TQQQ brought the biggest decline being leveraged. i went back in there because i thought i was assured of a few days of positive price rally- WRONG!

I certainly judged this environment incorrectly.
Wasn't it just yesterday that the Fed announced a .25 % raise in Rates after 6 years?
Was this Not a truly significant change of the prior 6 year policy?
and did not the market Rally across the boards after the announcement?
And was this Rate hike not long anticipated? And if the Fed had failed to raise the Rates-
Would the markets not take that as a sign of underlying weakness and something to be fearful of?
SO- WTF- happened today that got the initial market moving higher- filling my orders- and then turning South and selling off?
Why did the Utilities- XLU move and close higher ? Because that is a defensive Sector.....
So, We had a 1 day "HURRAH!" for the Fed announcement- and then we simply sell-off?
I find this frustrating- Tell you the truth- It pisses me off- I waited to see the outcome - and the market reaction- of the Fed announcement- and I can't get a 2nd day of consistent market direction? !!!
Venting and writing feels good- Maybe others have had the same frustration?
This is a chop market- This type of lack of follow through and market weakness makes me think the greater move is lower- and my long positions are in jeopardy Perhaps this will just be a period of wider volatility.
Options Expiration occurs tomorrow? I'm not savvy enough to understand the impact on stocks- this single event.

i will have to Cry UNCLE! -
While i have the capacity to not "feel' emotionally -about the success or failure of a single trade-I can view these losing trades I am perhaps missing the larger message of the markets
Son of a gun- TYPO- Hit the wrong key ands everything is educed in size-
I'll click "POST Reply and maybe edit.
 
sowterdad said:
I got my Arse kicked today- as my positions filled as the markets started higher- and then turned South. I still do not know what caused the directional turn lower- but the major indexes all lost ground-
My biggest loser was TQQQ which stopped out for a -5% loss
PJP and XBI were the other 2 positions that filled on higher moves, but both closed down - 1.5% approx.
I had thought I would have had the opportunity to catch the market action at break or lunch- but my attention was needed else wheres- it was very late afternoon before i could glimpse the markets.
I had set initially wider stops- and i was surprised to see the TQQQ position had actually declined that far-
I see a decline of $184.00 - not the loss, but the difference in value from yesterday's open.
This is for 3 positions- TQQQ brought the biggest decline being leveraged. i went back in there because i thought i was assured of a few days of positive price rally- WRONG!

I certainly judged this environment incorrectly.
Wasn't it just yesterday that the Fed announced a .25 % raise in Rates after 6 years?
Was this Not a truly significant change of the prior 6 year policy?
and did not the market Rally across the boards after the announcement?
And was this Rate hike not long anticipated? And if the Fed had failed to raise the Rates-
Would the markets not take that as a sign of underlying weakness and something to be fearful of?
SO- WTF- happened today that got the initial market moving higher- filling my orders- and then turning South and selling off?
Why did the Utilities- XLU move and close higher ? Because that is a defensive Sector.....
So, We had a 1 day "HURRAH!" for the Fed announcement- and then we simply sell-off?
I find this frustrating- Tell you the truth- It pisses me off- I waited to see the outcome - and the market reaction- of the Fed announcement- and I can't get a 2nd day of consistent market direction? !!!
Venting and writing feels good- Maybe others have had the same frustration?
This is a chop market- This type of lack of follow through and market weakness makes me think the greater move is lower- and my long positions are in jeopardy Perhaps this will just be a period of wider volatility.
Options Expiration occurs tomorrow? I'm not savvy enough to understand the impact on stocks- this single event.

i will have to Cry UNCLE! -
While i have the capacity to not "feel' emotionally -about the success or failure of a single trade-I can view these losing trades I am perhaps missing the larger message of the markets
Son of a gun- TYPO- Hit the wrong key ands everything is educed in size-
I'll click "POST Reply and maybe edit.
More...
Karma perhaps- or lack of understanding the keyboard....Likely only my own "view' settings- similar to ignorance in understanding the possibilities in the market's reaction today.
this points out the thinking that understanding the larger environment is more important than the technical s on a specific trade.
 
sowterdad said:
Karma perhaps- or lack of understanding the keyboard....Likely only my own "view' settings- similar to ignorance in understanding the possibilities in the market's reaction today.
this points out the thinking that understanding the larger environment is more important than the technical s on a specific trade.
More...

Really feel sorry for your loss and even more for your not knowing why. However I am sure you are not alone. I bet many traders feel the same today, even some gurus.

As of me I have found that trading is not easy. I am looking around for a different approach. Found the following link interesting. Enjoy!

http://basehitinvesting.com/superinvestors/walter-schloss/
 
Swift5 said:
Really feel sorry for your loss and even more for your not knowing why. However I am sure you are not alone. I bet many traders feel the same today, even some gurus.

As of me I have found that trading is not easy. I am looking around for a different approach. Found the following link interesting. Enjoy!

http://basehitinvesting.com/superinvestors/walter-schloss/
More...
Hi Swift,
No need to feel sorry for my loss-it happens-part of trading-I'm venting a bit-and publicly sharing .I'm not looking for sympathy- I'm posting this loss as a measure of personal accountability and perhaps some reader will find some benefit in my mutterings. There are a lot of people that got whipsawed by this market turn- a-round. I'd prefer to be making notations about the great win streak i was having.
Part of my frustration is that I believed a major market hurdle had been erased by the Fed finally issuing a rate hike and a dovish stance going forward-I had greater expectations that an "all-Clear" of a major impediment had been lifted- That the response only lasted 1 day is discouraging. It's also a serious warning signal about the health of the markets imo.

I expected several days of a relief rally - Not to get whipsawed the very next day due to OIL being weaker. It illustrates that my perception of the market's present psychology was naively overly optimistic- as it was easily replaced with an on going concern- lagging Oil prices. Underlying that concern, is the much larger indication that the world's economies have reduced demand for energy- meaning that the world's economies are struggling to stay afloat- Behind the curtain , is the relatively recent expansion of other countries attempting similar manipulation of their lending rates- and the net value of their currency. Also, the concerns that the US markets have only been gaining by a relatively few large stocks- while the majority all have seen losing prices on the year. This has been referred to as a very narrow market participation in gains- The majority have seen declines- This is likely also reflected in the relatively high PE values most companies are-or were- trading at-
The market reportedly looks into the future- and this combination seems to be a larger concern. And Art Cashin- on CNBC brought up something unusual in the Fed's pricing to the banks-http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000467200- Worth considering his "concern" about the oddity.
"Looking around for a different approach"-History is full of different people that succeeded in different ways- different approaches- The question is - as Schloss points out- what survives over the longer term?

I appreciate the link -Walter Schloss had an amazing career if he indeed averaged 21% per year for 50 years! I read in the links that his average holding period was 4 years- so perhaps he sold when things became fully valued, freeing up capitol to invest in another under valued company. His "niche" approach- appears to be that he bought and held value- and perhaps he doubled down-even tripled down? - or added to his value buys if they declined further . He also held a larger # of positions 60 to 100- so if one or two or a few went South, he had some diversity. and he had to have a belief in the merits of his approach-
Sounds a lot like Buffet. If one wants to duplicate his approach, it would likely take an extensive amount of time and personal commitment-and we are in a society that has grown to expect immediate rewards (including in our trading approaches)
At this point, I will exit- I won't point out that it is likely that few younger people are both traders and investors-today's society is all about quick rewards.
Perhaps the concept of the duality- Investor and Trader-as separate entities- is not in the consciousness of today's market participants-
Worth mentioning - and exploring further. Another time-
 
Hi SD,

First I want to applaud to you that you have reported your gains and losses honestly for us, readers, to learn from your successes and mistakes.

I also want to apologize for not making myself clear. I did not mean to give you sympathy but empathy for I understood having many small losses to have big hits are parts of trading. However like investor Water Schloss personaly I don’t like to lose money.

Second I agree with you there was no reason the market turned south right after the Fed hiked ¼ point interest rate the previous day, based on the improvement of economic datas.

Even though I had known around 78% traders predicted that the Fed would raise ¼ points interest rate, I thought Janet Yellen might endure the pressure not to do it. With many other people I felt there was not much economic improvement in the USA, yet other countries were adjusting their economic policies to USA's low interest. It is not the time to raise rate. Of course I was wrong.

Third oil price dropped unexpectedly on the next day – another undoetunate variable. There are so many unpredicted variables which make trading really very difficulty.

Swift
 
Swift5 said:
Hi SD,

First I want to applaud to you that you have reported your gains and losses honestly for us, readers, to learn from your successes and mistakes.

I also want to apologize for not making myself clear. I did not mean to give you sympathy but empathy for I understood having many small losses to have big hits are parts of trading. However like investor Water Schloss personaly I don’t like to lose money.

Second I agree with you there was no reason the market turned south right after the Fed hiked ¼ point interest rate the previous day, based on the improvement of economic datas.

Even though I had known around 78% traders predicted that the Fed would raise ¼ points interest rate, I thought Janet Yellen might endure the pressure not to do it. With many other people I felt there was not much economic improvement in the USA, yet other countries were adjusting their economic policies to USA's low interest. It is not the time to raise rate. Of course I was wrong.

Third oil price dropped unexpectedly on the next day – another undoetunate variable. There are so many unpredicted variables which make trading really very difficulty.

Swift
More...
 
Empathy rather than sympathy - that I can appreciate - in the shared experience.
Thank you- I try to be straight forward - honest with others as well as myself -
We all have losing trades- and a well executed loss should be viewed just as a well executed gain- if one can be balanced in their approach and not too emotional-
but this year I have really made some blunders- and I need to determine if i can correct that situation in the future - Or if I simply don't have the discipline required? Losses because of poor trade entries- , careless stops- impulsive trades-Leveraged trades and half a dozen more issues need to be corrected if i am going to see any positive results-
I Will think about those in the days ahead-
Thanks for posting!
 
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