Market stayed relatively flat again today- pre Thanksgiving Wednesday. Probably also a light volume week overall. A number of things could have shook the markets this week, but did not -
Turkey shot down a Russian Jet and that continues to be a focus of concerns- possibly will increase tensions in the area. and is OIL a big concern from Turkey? Putin didn't level Turkey-yet.
I was pleased to hear that a large number of ISIS troops laid down their weapons when Obama announced the agreement with France to combat global warming together. Heard that this am on the ride in - GlobaL Warming -international accord- go figure. I would certainly hope that this President came up with something more substantial than what the radio host I was listening to presented. End of the political commentary-
On a more realistic note-Pharma had some upside gains (PJP position) and I saw the momentum up move in AGN today Nice breakout higher above the recent consolidation- The "news" about this possible merger came out days earlier- - Today's price action is a positive, and the lower channel gives a well defined support So, I decided to take a small stock position- Haven't considered an individual stock position in quite some time- $320.04 entry on AGN ; Added 40 HACK ($27.14) to the existing position, 40 uup $27.97 as the dollar increases.
This leaves me ALL-in Long .
Why take a position in a single stock? A single stock carries an inordinate amount of Risk compared to the multiple positions held in an ETF. Potentially, it also brings an inordinate amount of gain. I don't know that AGN will be a position that outperforms the index.
The decision to add an individual stock that had potentially momentum news gives a larger exposure to potential gain and loss. I chose to take a position here- because it was chart appropriate in an index that is showing strength. It will be interesting to see if this breakout move outperforms the index.
I had some time to view AGN on different charts today-
I have been including volume as a chart component - and I am not a fan of volume-in terms of making a trade decision-
I am still inclined to believe that the concept of waiting to enter a trade only once it has been confirmed by large volume is coming late to the party. Everybody else is already there- and are already celebrating when you decide to step through the door with your belated position.-waiting to see that confirming large volume.
I think the essence of building Volume as an asset in one's trading occurs only by viewing the potential signals of positive volume when it is ahead of a move-
I think a good study of volume is indicated by using faster time frame charts-
Because the essence of the charts- across all time frames- needs to hold 'true'
(But does it? - another question for another day)
As a proponent of TA, I believe charts and the information of the past can be useful in suggesting an approach to the future price action. Essentially- a trend in effect is still likey to continue- Until the time it is violated- Lower high, lower low- break of support etc.
interpreting indicators is more subjective- but worthy of additional study- only if it improves one's results- Since indicators interpret a lagging price action- They are not predictive.
In the couple of charts i am posting of AGN- One a candlestick, one a Renko-
I have included Volume -
Volume needs to be viewed in context with Price action-
I read on another post Volume Price Analysis - by Anna Coulley (?) and i intend to get the kindle version to read-
I hate to complicate a simple trading approach with unnecessary indicators-
The more complications that are added- the more removed one becomes from what is the real story- Where price has been and where it is headed. Candlesticks and moving averages are a good starting point- IMO.
Since i am an EOD trader- I could look only to the daily chart but prefer to look deeper inside to see some of the interaction that occurs on a faster time frame- In the charts i am posting- a candlestick- and a renko- both of these still support to have taken the entry i chose. Note the volume sequence that occurs preceding the day of the actual gap higher- This becomes more obvious as one employs a faster chart broken into smaller intervals of time.
This initial review of the chart shows a price pullback, tighter consolidation, and then a higher volume move up, then a pullback, followed by a higher volume move higher- pullback-
I think that those that seek confirmation employing Volume- need to explore this chart dynamic further- I - even as a skeptic- 'think' I see the somewhat subtle higher volume buy side vs the sell side preceding the breakout.
I'm not becoming a volume advocate- but i am willing to include it as an object of study-in a chart- Ahead of a move.
This 1st chart illustrates AGN with a Renko Close chart- meaning it disregards price projections that do not exceed the price bar ATR vaLUE.
sIMPLY LOOK AT THE CHART -
Renko is devious in that it fills gap spaces of price with bars.
Renko "close' settings disregards higher or lower price penetrations unless an entir Renko value is exceeded.
If you can sit back and look at this price chart- Notice from the large gap higher move-
All of the volumes decline over a period of days- until a swing low is reacted to with a higher move- followed by a higher sell volume but price manages to not go as low- and makes a higher low- small rally higher- pullback with a peak sell volume- followed by a move higher- and a pullback on even higher sell volume- that fades into a strong buy move higher-
I think this fast chart demonstrates a series of higher lows, an attempt at a high volume sell-off that fails to gain traction- that leads into a strong move higher and breakout of the the prior range.
This supports my rationale to take a long position on the breakout move.
