long term position trading -primarily etf's-

sowterdad · Oct 19, 2015

After holding this position for several weeks- and seeing price move higher into positive territory-I expected that would have resulted in a momentum move higher-
I raised my stop-loss to break-even ($69.00) following yesterday's positive price action-
That positive fizzled today- and after a higher start, price weakened and took my stop-out at my entry cost- A break-even trade - with a $2 commission charge.
This puts me 100% in cash- and frankly i was overweight in PJP- There is a time factor in holding a position- Undoubtedly, PJP will now gap higher and move to capture my projected levels.
Holding this large a single position gave me time to consider how I will feel about an investment portfolio during times of decline- This gets back to how trading is more about the trader's psychology perhaps, than it is about the mechanics of a method one uses.

If it is open to a discretionary choice- One reacts to their assessment of the present environment in making a trading decision. One might get focused on the Micro- intraday price action- and overlook the wider Macro price action.
We'll see how this trade turns out- While i am willing to go overweight, I should have laddered into the trade as it progressed higher instead of jumping in all at once- and i likely should have staggered my stop levels- or to have gotten more aggressive in netting some gain while protecting some downside.
Busy week ahead- on a personal schedule on the home front- Too busy to be dabbling in trading.....

sowterdad · Oct 20, 2015

sowterdad said:
After holding this position for several weeks- and seeing price move higher into positive territory-I expected that would have resulted in a momentum move higher-
I raised my stop-loss to break-even ($69.00) following yesterday's positive price action-
That positive fizzled today- and after a higher start, price weakened and took my stop-out at my entry cost- A break-even trade - with a $2 commission charge.
This puts me 100% in cash- and frankly i was overweight in PJP- There is a time factor in holding a position- Undoubtedly, PJP will now gap higher and move to capture my projected levels.
Holding this large a single position gave me time to consider how I will feel about an investment portfolio during times of decline- This gets back to how trading is more about the trader's psychology perhaps, than it is about the mechanics of a method one uses.

If it is open to a discretionary choice- One reacts to their assessment of the present environment in making a trading decision. One might get focused on the Micro- intraday price action- and overlook the wider Macro price action.
We'll see how this trade turns out- While i am willing to go overweight, I should have laddered into the trade as it progressed higher instead of jumping in all at once- and i likely should have staggered my stop levels- or to have gotten more aggressive in netting some gain while protecting some downside.
Busy week ahead- on a personal schedule on the home front- Too busy to be dabbling in trading.....

Late Lunch break- Mid afternoon glance- PJP decining to $67-Fast bars -straight decline- Curious to see how far it goes before it shows and turns. This is occurring while all the major indexes look in the red-
hadn't seen what prompted this round of weakness-
Presently, I'm pleased that my stop filled where it did- Persistent weakness in the inability to get traction to move higher - should look elsewheres or attempt more tactical trading-
Enter at what appears to be a turn up from a recent support level range- look to the swing low of that range as a potential stop-loss- evaluate the Risk and select the position size.
I still have buy-stops waiting at much lower price levels- looking to capture a seriously lower entry on a sharp intraday decline. If price breaks the recent swing low made weeks ago, I expect another leg lower would cause me to look to lower those limit buy orders.

And, Since the markets are not trending- I will reduce my entry position size to something more responsible and not overweight. Lesson almost learned the hard way again!

sowterdad · Oct 21, 2015

sowterdad said:
Late Lunch break- Mid afternoon glance- PJP decining to $67-Fast bars -straight decline- Curious to see how far it goes before it shows and turns. This is occurring while all the major indexes look in the red-
hadn't seen what prompted this round of weakness-
Presently, I'm pleased that my stop filled where it did- Persistent weakness in the inability to get traction to move higher - should look elsewheres or attempt more tactical trading-
Enter at what appears to be a turn up from a recent support level range- look to the swing low of that range as a potential stop-loss- evaluate the Risk and select the position size.
I still have buy-stops waiting at much lower price levels- looking to capture a seriously lower entry on a sharp intraday decline. If price breaks the recent swing low made weeks ago, I expect another leg lower would cause me to look to lower those limit buy orders.

And, Since the markets are not trending- I will reduce my entry position size to something more responsible and not overweight. Lesson almost learned the hard way again!
View attachment 158445

The prior chart snapshot was taken mid afternoon, and it looked as though things were headed lower- Actually, the selling paused, and going into the close- some early buyers stepped in Long- Note the higher closing bar - on this time frame- Yields a lower open today, with a sharp decline into the lower channel.- without even a pause in the decline.
So much for assuming that what appeared to be a valid exchange of buyers and sellers in the prior week is totally ignored this week and price blows through that level- How could this occur? Well- Support and resistance levels perhaps are most meaningful at the time they occur and within that larger environment. As time progresses, and the environment changes- Buyers and sellers perceptions and interpretations change as well- So- in my mind- yesterday's resistance- now broken higher- should yield a support level- but the caveat is that it is all based on buyers and sellers perceptions at that original level- and those perceptions change -as the market evolves- in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months.
i think it should be instructive to follow a closed trade to see if closing the trade was the right thing to do. Give it a few days- or weeks-

sowterdad · Oct 22, 2015

Lost the post-"security issue" might be I am using a public wi-fi-
Tried to update the chart as PJP continues to demonstrate weakness- Healthcare & biotech are in disfavor while the major indexes are up.
MY belief that The concept of support and resistance has a stronger meaning when the perceived levels coincide with levels on a higher time frame- and the hourly chart support
at this level coincides well with daily chart support levels made back in late 2014..
If the lower swing low level fails to hold- I would expect $62-$60 to represent the next substantial support level

sowterdad · Oct 22, 2015

sowterdad said:
Lost the post-"security issue" might be I am using a public wi-fi-
Tried to update the chart as PJP continues to demonstrate weakness- Healthcare & biotech are in disfavor while the major indexes are up.
MY belief that The concept of support and resistance has a stronger meaning when the perceived levels coincide with levels on a higher time frame- and the hourly chart support
at this level coincides well with daily chart support levels made back in late 2014..
If the lower swing low level fails to hold- I would expect $62-$60 to represent the next substantial support level

View attachment 158512

fOLLOWING UP WITH A WEEKLY CHART TO ASSIGN SUPPORT LEVELS BASED ON PERIODS OF PRIOR PRICE CONSOLIDATIONS- ALL PERIODS OF EXCHANGE BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS.
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHAT OCCURS INTRA BAR- IS OFTEN NOT WHERE THE BAR CONCLUDES- THE RED BAR ON 10.22.15 SHOWN INSIDE THE CHART INDICATES A DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER SUPPORT LEVEL. THAT DOES NOT TELL US THAT THIS BAR WILL END THE WEEK THERE- EACH OF THE PRIOR 3 BARS ALL DURING THEIR INTRAWEEK PERIOD ALSO LOOKED BEARISHLY SOLID RED LOW INTO THE PRIOR CHANNEL. THAT THEY ALL CLOSED ABOVE THE CHANNEL INDICATED BUYERS WERE WILLING TO FIND VALUE AT THE LOWER PRICES AND STEPPED IN BUYING .
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS WEEK'S BAR ACTUALLY CONCLUDES.
WILL THE POSSIBLE PRICE "PROJECTIONS" TO THE RIGHT - WILL EITHER ONE OCCUR?
nO CRYSTAL BALL- BUT WITH THE SECTOR UNDER WEAKNESS, i AM NOT AN OPTIMIST FOR THE BULLISH BAR.

sowterdad · Oct 23, 2015

sowterdad said:
fOLLOWING UP WITH A WEEKLY CHART TO ASSIGN SUPPORT LEVELS BASED ON PERIODS OF PRIOR PRICE CONSOLIDATIONS- ALL PERIODS OF EXCHANGE BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS.
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHAT OCCURS INTRA BAR- IS OFTEN NOT WHERE THE BAR CONCLUDES- THE RED BAR ON 10.22.15 SHOWN INSIDE THE CHART INDICATES A DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER SUPPORT LEVEL. THAT DOES NOT TELL US THAT THIS BAR WILL END THE WEEK THERE- EACH OF THE PRIOR 3 BARS ALL DURING THEIR INTRAWEEK PERIOD ALSO LOOKED BEARISHLY SOLID RED LOW INTO THE PRIOR CHANNEL. THAT THEY ALL CLOSED ABOVE THE CHANNEL INDICATED BUYERS WERE WILLING TO FIND VALUE AT THE LOWER PRICES AND STEPPED IN BUYING .
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS WEEK'S BAR ACTUALLY CONCLUDES.
WILL THE POSSIBLE PRICE "PROJECTIONS" TO THE RIGHT - WILL EITHER ONE OCCUR?
nO CRYSTAL BALL- BUT WITH THE SECTOR UNDER WEAKNESS, i AM NOT AN OPTIMIST FOR THE BULLISH BAR.
View attachment 158513

At home this Friday-Taking a few minutes for charts - Took a position back into PJP today bouncing off that "support level-"- yesterday- and finally moving higher with the rest of the markets- perhaps this will become the recent oversold bottom .
I really like the price action of the fast chart- attached - That 1st reversal off that support level drops back to support again and then moved higher- Ideally- If I had been trading intraday yesterday, I would have entered after the 2nd move off support and that would have provided an ideal stop-loss just below a defined point of failure-Since i don't trade intraday- and don't pay for real time charting- that is wishful thinking- but whether it's a faster chart or a daily or weekly - getting in on a faster time frame than one normally trades on brings potential earlier entry signals and more opportunities for failed trades.
I'm going back to some fundamentals- to save me from damaging my trading-
ThaT is - even if i take an oversized position- not exceeding the Portfolio Risk by 1% on any position. Instead of jumping in with 100 shares- I took a 50 share position- about one quarter of the account value-and did the evaluation on where the stop-loss should -and could be set.
Tight stop would be below today's open- $66.00- and only would Risk $62 should it be hit.
However, that doesn't allow much room for volatility swings on Monday- or even this afternoon if the gap open gets tested today.
Looking below the recent 'support line" that price bounced from- a stop just below Risks 1%.
Since I plan to hold this trade as long as price behaves- I am looking to potentially sell 1/2 at $69.00 - small gain- and to trail a higher stop with the remaining 1/2-
Should price then move back above the expected pause at $69.00- I would reenter with the goal to work with that 25% as my allocation to this trade.
I will also seek to widen my horizons and target other trades-as I see some blue sky in my personal schedule .

sowterdad · Oct 23, 2015

sowterdad said:
fOLLOWING UP WITH A WEEKLY CHART TO ASSIGN SUPPORT LEVELS BASED ON PERIODS OF PRIOR PRICE CONSOLIDATIONS- ALL PERIODS OF EXCHANGE BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS.
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHAT OCCURS INTRA BAR- IS OFTEN NOT WHERE THE BAR CONCLUDES- THE RED BAR ON 10.22.15 SHOWN INSIDE THE CHART INDICATES A DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER SUPPORT LEVEL. THAT DOES NOT TELL US THAT THIS BAR WILL END THE WEEK THERE- EACH OF THE PRIOR 3 BARS ALL DURING THEIR INTRAWEEK PERIOD ALSO LOOKED BEARISHLY SOLID RED LOW INTO THE PRIOR CHANNEL. THAT THEY ALL CLOSED ABOVE THE CHANNEL INDICATED BUYERS WERE WILLING TO FIND VALUE AT THE LOWER PRICES AND STEPPED IN BUYING .
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS WEEK'S BAR ACTUALLY CONCLUDES.
WILL THE POSSIBLE PRICE "PROJECTIONS" TO THE RIGHT - WILL EITHER ONE OCCUR?
nO CRYSTAL BALL- BUT WITH THE SECTOR UNDER WEAKNESS, i AM NOT AN OPTIMIST FOR THE BULLISH BAR.
View attachment 158513

Looking 1 day later at that Weekly chart- Point to note that the WEEKLY chart does not support going long today- Today's still intraweek bar has not concluded yet- but it would have to go much higher to look buyable . Taking a look at the next faster chart- the Daily would perhaps indicate some positive reasons to consider an early entry at this level.

sowterdad · Oct 23, 2015

Friday trade Note- 10.23.15 some quick comments -I hadn't anticipated Intraday time to be available- on trading- but the market is finding strength - and we're in October- it appears the Fed is passive- and perhaps emerging markets are not going into a tailspin -total recession? Politics and healthcare being challenged- It appears that we could continue to see reasons to see the market's find reasons to grind higher-Large cap Tech supporting good earnings .
Went long a mix of ETF's- even though it appears there has been a lot of upside already recently- China rate news- Bought some EEM, CU-even though there remain concerns about growth slowing- Copper futures reportedly lower but CU etf looks to be making a nice hammer on the weekly- also gives a defined stop level . There is a lot of skepticism about whether
these market rate manipulations and strong dollar will support any real growth.
Tech is strong- bought QQQ, HACK is weak but took an entry near the Point of Failure, smaller position,
and bought the volatility hedged SPXH-
Fully invested in the trading account.

sowterdad · Oct 23, 2015

Education- Link to a stockcharts.com resource on Wycoff charting-market cycles.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyc...wyckoff-power-charting-with-bruce-fraser.html
I actually just 'found' this series of articles - in blog format that interprets the teachings of Wycoff- Articles started this year; interesting format- I have not read each article- but expect to do so-
For those interested - i believe DB Phoenix has already contributed substantially for some time now on ET presenting similar content and interpretation of Wycoff's approach. It might be worth looking at both as resources in this method/interpretation.
Since it appears that Wycoff studied the signs of large and gradual accumulation- it suggests that he was not a day trader- more a swing/ position trader- holding for longer periods and expecting larger gains, following the moves of "big money" building positions.
Whether one desires to be a Wycoff follower or not- recognizing the general principles of price action in the context of position in the market cycle is instructive.

sowterdad · Oct 26, 2015

sowterdad said:
Education- Link to a stockcharts.com resource on Wycoff charting-market cycles.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyc...wyckoff-power-charting-with-bruce-fraser.html
I actually just 'found' this series of articles - in blog format that interprets the teachings of Wycoff- Articles started this year; interesting format- I have not read each article- but expect to do so-
For those interested - i believe DB Phoenix has already contributed substantially for some time now on ET presenting similar content and interpretation of Wycoff's approach. It might be worth looking at both as resources in this method/interpretation.
Since it appears that Wycoff studied the signs of large and gradual accumulation- it suggests that he was not a day trader- more a swing/ position trader- holding for longer periods and expecting larger gains, following the moves of "big money" building positions.
Whether one desires to be a Wycoff follower or not- recognizing the general principles of price action in the context of position in the market cycle is instructive.

I hope to get some additional time to actually do some "study" -Wycoff is a good place to start fresh. Sometimes we have to be ready to absorb what is placed in front of us-
Or we don't see it or recognize it - This likely comes gradually with copious amounts of screen time. I found it interesting that what i started reading the other day essentially described to a T several things i have noticed over time as i look to a faster chart for more in depth looks at intraday price movements.
One of those items is commonly known by those active traders as a 'spring' where price drops lower, taking out associated stops under perceived levels of support - and then rebounds substantially higher -
Another would be the 1st attempt of price to make a reversal - often meets with failure-
and a second formation generally has a greater opportunity-
I think Volume and the corresponding reaction of price study is likely very nuanced -
I think astute traders can interpret what volume may be signaling ahead of large moves and that gives them the impetus to take that early entry closer to the point of Failure- for a much smaller loss should the trade go bad- and a subsrtantially larger gain if it does indeed make that bigger move on large volume- which everyone then sees and then belatedly joins in.
I have found reason to Not use volume- as it confounds me with mixed signals- but i may include it on some future charts to see if i can actually see the benefit of my attempts at interpretation.
Holding all positions- PJP moved higher again today- so i raised my stop to B.E. and set a $69.60 limit sell. The remaining positions declined with CU and EEM down but not close to my stop.
I'm essentially referring to the daily chart for stops- but prefer to view price on the faster charts.
Have been discussing MCD with a friend-
the fast 15 minute chart with Volume shows an interesting pattern- Almost every day just prior to the close (except 1) buyers stepped in with large buy volume- This would appear to be signs of consistent accumulation preceding earnings-I am making that assumption, in hindsight since MCD broke out on great earnings- Would i have thought that before the breakout? No. Is this repeated in other charts prior to breakouts? Might prove worth noticing.
Today MCD closed lower on a bearish tall tail- Doji. (daily chart) I expect it goes lower Tuesday 10.27.15- Based on the bearish doji- and the prior gap- plenty of opportunity for profit taking and price pullback on weakness- Was this just due to the overall Market being weak today? Don't know- Will see if the doji's bearish sentiment gets additional selling.
15 minute chart with volume- to consider