long term position trading -primarily etf's-

sowterdad · Aug 24, 2015

What a historic day! Over -1,100 pts on the Dow !What a sell-off open!
Glad i had the day job to worry about-
What was amazing was the extent of the initial sell-off- I wish I had simply taken the steps to place a ridiculously low order in on some of my positions- because they would have filled! I talked about doing that a time or two- and failed to have a ridiculous low order waiting for such a day- The scary thing is that perhaps it is not too late to get that extreme low fill.
I still hold some free cash in the IB account- XBI hit 180- RXL saw a low of $31 with a close at $62.00. Wish I had limit orders down that low!
I have greater losses mounting-
Futures are displaying a higher open this Monday 8.24 pm
What are opinions worth? Everyone is entitled to have one-
Was this just a reaction-panic sell-off - and the worst is now behind us?
The skeptic in me thinks we will still grind lower- perhaps for weeks or months...
What will turn the tide and drive us higher?

sowterdad · Aug 25, 2015

Well,

sowterdad said:
What a historic day! Over -1,100 pts on the Dow !What a sell-off open!
Glad i had the day job to worry about-
What was amazing was the extent of the initial sell-off- I wish I had simply taken the steps to place a ridiculously low order in on some of my positions- because they would have filled! I talked about doing that a time or two- and failed to have a ridiculous low order waiting for such a day- The scary thing is that perhaps it is not too late to get that extreme low fill.
I still hold some free cash in the IB account- XBI hit 180- RXL saw a low of $31 with a close at $62.00. Wish I had limit orders down that low!
I have greater losses mounting-
Futures are displaying a higher open this Monday 8.24 pm
What are opinions worth? Everyone is entitled to have one-
Was this just a reaction-panic sell-off - and the worst is now behind us?
The skeptic in me thinks we will still grind lower- perhaps for weeks or months...
What will turn the tide and drive us higher?

Well, the market rallied as China cut rates- and anyone that followed the market breathed a sigh of relief- and then guess what- the fear crept back in .
and we went lower- again- This has to rattle the cage of every Investor- and traders with a long bias-
And- let's be realistic- What has occurred here in the past week- Not only for myself- but other Investor-traders - has many of us on the ropes-
Consider the case of the trader that held a wide stop loss on a position -perhaps following the market trend on a weekly chart with a wider stop-loss. - and the market opened down HUGE the other day- That stop-loss became a market order to sell- And that trader/investor found that position sold on the much lower open price-
Despite being willing to sustain Some wider volatility- the market dishes out a ration of Volatility that would choke a horse -all in a very short time frame-
Finding myself having to adopt the Investor mindset is not a comfortable role- I woul;d have preferred to have sustained a 3-5% loss on any position- and be out and licking my wounds.
Interesting day today- I understand the market pundits talked about how much
money was "lost" in 401k accounts- The averages ranged from 3K to 10K -
I guess this is to shake up the retail investor- Who traditionally will greatly underperform the markets on average- because they react only AFTER an event- has had an impact-
Selling after a landslide has started makes one feel they have taken action- but- personal experince tells me that i am not smart enough to time the bottom-
It is entirely possible that we see a world wide repricing of value- over the next year or so- And it is equally possible that all of this is just a passing indigestion and the markets fall back to FED/ quantitative easing policies in nationms around the world- and all will be fine in a few weeks as the new "assessment" of the global condition is redefined.
Is it too late to bail out and take a loss? when do you step back in and take the long position at a lower value? You cannot know what that answer is- You want to react and reduce your exposure and lessen the losses- but do you have the foresight to reinvest at the bottom? What if today IS the bottom?
Retail investors often sell at the bottom- I know- I are one. Pain is too great- Get out just to have that sense of having taken an action.....That's a normal reaction-
At this point, i can view the trading account objectively- and somewhat removed
Still have some free cash- will see what this week brings.

sowterdad · Aug 26, 2015

sowterdad said:
Well,

Well, the market rallied as China cut rates- and anyone that followed the market breathed a sigh of relief- and then guess what- the fear crept back in .
and we went lower- again- This has to rattle the cage of every Investor- and traders with a long bias-
And- let's be realistic- What has occurred here in the past week- Not only for myself- but other Investor-traders - has many of us on the ropes-
Consider the case of the trader that held a wide stop loss on a position -perhaps following the market trend on a weekly chart with a wider stop-loss. - and the market opened down HUGE the other day- That stop-loss became a market order to sell- And that trader/investor found that position sold on the much lower open price-
Despite being willing to sustain Some wider volatility- the market dishes out a ration of Volatility that would choke a horse -all in a very short time frame-
Finding myself having to adopt the Investor mindset is not a comfortable role- I woul;d have preferred to have sustained a 3-5% loss on any position- and be out and licking my wounds.
Interesting day today- I understand the market pundits talked about how much
money was "lost" in 401k accounts- The averages ranged from 3K to 10K -
I guess this is to shake up the retail investor- Who traditionally will greatly underperform the markets on average- because they react only AFTER an event- has had an impact-
Selling after a landslide has started makes one feel they have taken action- but- personal experince tells me that i am not smart enough to time the bottom-
It is entirely possible that we see a world wide repricing of value- over the next year or so- And it is equally possible that all of this is just a passing indigestion and the markets fall back to FED/ quantitative easing policies in nationms around the world- and all will be fine in a few weeks as the new "assessment" of the global condition is redefined.
Is it too late to bail out and take a loss? when do you step back in and take the long position at a lower value? You cannot know what that answer is- You want to react and reduce your exposure and lessen the losses- but do you have the foresight to reinvest at the bottom? What if today IS the bottom?
Retail investors often sell at the bottom- I know- I are one. Pain is too great- Get out just to have that sense of having taken an action.....That's a normal reaction-
At this point, i can view the trading account objectively- and somewhat removed
Still have some free cash- will see what this week brings.

Nice across the boards rally today- Had a net gain in positions of $847.00 today-
Just 2 more rally days like today , and I'll get back where I was last week before stepping back in in- Good luck with that occurring any time soon- !
I think I was more of a mindset that we would drop lower- after the initial reaction rally- Using TQQQ as an example- it gained almost 15% from yesterday- I'm close to where i took my $92 entry- but still a far cry from my 107 average cost.But- that could be reached-
I have to consider - I missed a great opportunity in not having some of that free cash waiting with a ridiculously low limit order-. What is a ridiculously low % for a limit order? As TQQQ showed- a 50% drop can occur very quickly-
In trying to consider salvage operations- Had i purchased more TQQQ yesterday, I would have seen a 15% gain-today- but my crystal ball was clouded- and today's rally was not what i anticipated- I thought we would chop around for a while- certainly not pop back up higher.
Instead of adding more to the TQQQ tech trade- I'm going to add to RXL- ultra healthcare- It also had a significant drop in price- and resulting rally- but I have a belief- and that is dangerous- that healthcare is a theme that has historically been strong and is not going to simply go away- Scary when you have a "belief' about something-
The Buy order is $66.50 stop- limit $67.50 and a stop-loss at $59.90. Very wide- but just b elow the recent lows-
A final note on this post- Had i not gone back into the markets just the prior week- I would not be trying to do any trades today- This is damage control- and comes with no guarantees-
Thanks to the market bouncing- I'm not down as far as i was-
This is one of those lessons the market dispenses periodically- but the Fed's control = market manipulation has kept volatility in check for several years-
Doomsayers like Peter Schiff think that we are on the road to a huge market correction- Manipulation of the various different economies currencies by the powers to be - perhaps that is all smoke & mirrors- and we are headed for a day of reckoning-
OK_ perhaps I need to go back and put in stops across the board-We've had a great rally back somewhat higher-

Just keeping things real: Would prefer to focus on all the green - but this does not display Where these positions started.(higher)
Screenshot of today's losing positions-
Unfortunately the Average price ( was much higher for all) does not display in full-

I've now gone through and added stop-losses to each of these positions-

sowterdad · Aug 27, 2015

sowterdad said:
Nice across the boards rally today- Had a net gain in positions of $847.00 today-
Just 2 more rally days like today , and I'll get back where I was last week before stepping back in in- Good luck with that occurring any time soon- !
I think I was more of a mindset that we would drop lower- after the initial reaction rally- Using TQQQ as an example- it gained almost 15% from yesterday- I'm close to where i took my $92 entry- but still a far cry from my 107 average cost.But- that could be reached-
I have to consider - I missed a great opportunity in not having some of that free cash waiting with a ridiculously low limit order-. What is a ridiculously low % for a limit order? As TQQQ showed- a 50% drop can occur very quickly-
In trying to consider salvage operations- Had i purchased more TQQQ yesterday, I would have seen a 15% gain-today- but my crystal ball was clouded- and today's rally was not what i anticipated- I thought we would chop around for a while- certainly not pop back up higher.
Instead of adding more to the TQQQ tech trade- I'm going to add to RXL- ultra healthcare- It also had a significant drop in price- and resulting rally- but I have a belief- and that is dangerous- that healthcare is a theme that has historically been strong and is not going to simply go away- Scary when you have a "belief' about something-
The Buy order is $66.50 stop- limit $67.50 and a stop-loss at $59.90. Very wide- but just b elow the recent lows-
A final note on this post- Had i not gone back into the markets just the prior week- I would not be trying to do any trades today- This is damage control- and comes with no guarantees-
Thanks to the market bouncing- I'm not down as far as i was-
This is one of those lessons the market dispenses periodically- but the Fed's control = market manipulation has kept volatility in check for several years-
Doomsayers like Peter Schiff think that we are on the road to a huge market correction- Manipulation of the various different economies currencies by the powers to be - perhaps that is all smoke & mirrors- and we are headed for a day of reckoning-
OK_ perhaps I need to go back and put in stops across the board-We've had a great rally back somewhat higher-

Just keeping things real: Would prefer to focus on all the green - but this does not display Where these positions started.(higher)
Screenshot of today's losing positions-
Unfortunately the Average price ( was much higher for all) does not display in full-

I've now gone through and added stop-losses to each of these positions- View attachment 156230

View attachment 156228

The market is trending higher this am- I Was filled on my add order for 30 RXL @ $67.50-
RXL opened higher- $68.42, pulled back- and according to my chart- hit my limit- which was also the low so far today. I hope it manages to stay that way.
I do not think we simply snap back to our prior level-Adding to RXL is an attempt to get some additional upside leverage in the pharma space, and reduce the prior loss in value of that position.
The decision I have made is to set some stops after the fact- - now that the horse has already left the stable- the barn has quit burning- but is still smoldering-
Instead of thinking all may be well-and this was just a reaction over sell- Perhaps it was just a glimpse of what could occur in the days ahead if the markets get rattled again - by Fed, Data, China etc.
At this point, I will monitor these positions daily- and adjust stops higher to try to make a reduction in the net loss in all prior positions from the prior week.
Several thoughts came to mind regarding stops- and what I am comfortable with-The most efficient stop is the one that captures the greatest gain- within a single trade- But that assumes price drops lower and the trade is reentered lower- improving the cost basis- and adds more shares. When stopped out of a position on a minor volatility swing- and chasing a higher reentry level- or waiting for the "Pullback" that does not occur-
With conventional stops- potentially the stop-loss occurs when the market overnight
decides it's time to be selling- and -like we had this week- The price opens & gaps down well below the stop- and the stop order fills perhaps not at the lower open- lack of liquidity and buy orders- but even much lower.
The only protection from not getting an extreme low fill on a stop execution is to have a limit order attached to the stop-loss- but if the range between the stop-loss and the limit is too narrow, the order may never get filled and price drives even lower.

If we are indeed going to be in a more volatile market in the days, weeks, months ahead, We may see additional opportunities to get some value tradable entries- I do have some free cash positioned in a different account - more Investment focused- and I will set some orders to try to capture those at a "value" price-

Meanwhile- TQQQ is up +6% today at $97.00-So, at least on paper, my losses are diminishing on this rally- in all positions.

sowterdad · Aug 27, 2015

sowterdad said:
The market is trending higher this am- I Was filled on my add order for 30 RXL @ $67.50-
RXL opened higher- $68.42, pulled back- and according to my chart- hit my limit- which was also the low so far today. I hope it manages to stay that way.
I do not think we simply snap back to our prior level-Adding to RXL is an attempt to get some additional upside leverage in the pharma space, and reduce the prior loss in value of that position.
The decision I have made is to set some stops after the fact- - now that the horse has already left the stable- the barn has quit burning- but is still smoldering-
Instead of thinking all may be well-and this was just a reaction over sell- Perhaps it was just a glimpse of what could occur in the days ahead if the markets get rattled again - by Fed, Data, China etc.
At this point, I will monitor these positions daily- and adjust stops higher to try to make a reduction in the net loss in all prior positions from the prior week.
Several thoughts came to mind regarding stops- and what I am comfortable with-The most efficient stop is the one that captures the greatest gain- within a single trade- But that assumes price drops lower and the trade is reentered lower- improving the cost basis- and adds more shares. When stopped out of a position on a minor volatility swing- and chasing a higher reentry level- or waiting for the "Pullback" that does not occur-
With conventional stops- potentially the stop-loss occurs when the market overnight
decides it's time to be selling- and -like we had this week- The price opens & gaps down well below the stop- and the stop order fills perhaps not at the lower open- lack of liquidity and buy orders- but even much lower.
The only protection from not getting an extreme low fill on a stop execution is to have a limit order attached to the stop-loss- but if the range between the stop-loss and the limit is too narrow, the order may never get filled and price drives even lower.

If we are indeed going to be in a more volatile market in the days, weeks, months ahead, We may see additional opportunities to get some value tradable entries- I do have some free cash positioned in a different account - more Investment focused- and I will set some orders to try to capture those at a "value" price-

Meanwhile- TQQQ is up +6% today at $97.00-So, at least on paper, my losses are diminishing on this rally- in all positions.

Markets finished this Thursday 8.27.15 higher again- but there was some intraday weakness- but a stronger close . Perhaps we are running out of willing buyers & short covering? Will tomorrow be the day we pause and possibly don't put in a higher high for the week?
TQQQ closed up 7.8%- rxl up +4% and acct value up $500.00 on the day
Commodities higher- this is also a good sign- indicates "growth" demand -good for business- ?
As i view the charts- I have to consider where i sell- and where i hold? I would think that this recent harsh snap sell-off - and the equally fast recovery- perhaps may bode well-in the event of the next future news that rattles the market- Not that there won't be additional selling pressures in the days/weeks ahead- but perhaps it won't be a scramble for the exits like this one was. On the other hand- One should consider how FAST AND FAR the decline gained momentum-
Regarding my leveraged trades- I am "overweight" in these leveraged positions-
Consider that with the higher Reward also comes proportionately higher RISK-
Attached is today's screenshot with the % move needed to get back to Break- Even.
The TQQQ position is more realistic than the HACK position- as TQQQ is a 3x .and only requires the q's to gain 3%- While Hack has to earn it all!

sowterdad · Sep 1, 2015

sowterdad said:
Markets finished this Thursday 8.27.15 higher again- but there was some intraday weakness- but a stronger close . Perhaps we are running out of willing buyers & short covering? Will tomorrow be the day we pause and possibly don't put in a higher high for the week?
TQQQ closed up 7.8%- rxl up +4% and acct value up $500.00 on the day
Commodities higher- this is also a good sign- indicates "growth" demand -good for business- ?
As i view the charts- I have to consider where i sell- and where i hold? I would think that this recent harsh snap sell-off - and the equally fast recovery- perhaps may bode well-in the event of the next future news that rattles the market- Not that there won't be additional selling pressures in the days/weeks ahead- but perhaps it won't be a scramble for the exits like this one was. On the other hand- One should consider how FAST AND FAR the decline gained momentum-
Regarding my leveraged trades- I am "overweight" in these leveraged positions-
Consider that with the higher Reward also comes proportionately higher RISK-
Attached is today's screenshot with the % move needed to get back to Break- Even.
The TQQQ position is more realistic than the HACK position- as TQQQ is a 3x .and only requires the q's to gain 3%- While Hack has to earn it all!
View attachment 156270

Follow up- today's sell-off took a $600 toll on the account as well as hitting stops on TQQQ , XBI with RXL still a leveraged position.

sowterdad · Sep 28, 2015

99.299.288.15

sowterdad said:
Follow up- today's sell-off took a $600 toll on the account as well as hitting stops on TQQQ , XBI with RXL still a leveraged position.

9.28.15-
It's been almost a month since my last post- and I've held 3 positions -PJP, RXL, HACK during that period of time- I set stops under the recovery lows of the prior flash crash- and then proceeded to go resume working on the home project- I did not try to tighten those stops in the past Month- and the fact they have been hit suggests further weakness-
During this week, IB sent me e-mails as my remaining positions were stopped out- Hack being hit today- the account is now down -20% for the year, and I'm all cash presently- I still retain under a 5% position in the IRA accounts.
This certainly 'feels' like this market has a potential for a much larger decline- While i'm rather out of touch with the day to day - The pendulum swings often go too far in both directions.
This is the point where real money can be made- or lost- Should the market drop substantially lower- an Investor can get some bargain panic prices- or a short position could gain some profits- I'm tempted to "short" using ETF's - but i'll stay clear of leveraged ETF's for today's trade.
DOG is the inverse for the DOW- I will buy 100 -stop $25- limit $25.20 with a sell at $26.90 looking for a momentum move- Stop will be @24.50

sowterdad · Sep 29, 2015

Was filled at $25- in reviewing the chart- I will look at the most recent daily push lower to adjust the stop just below- $24.00 is below the prior spike lower- allowing for the wider volatility- . in calculating a stop-loss- the best stop is the tightest stop- but there is also a need to be aware of the environment- In this example, a recent swing low in this higher upturn is perhaps more appropriate than a standard % loss- This is $.50 wider than my initial stop- and the question becomes whether this wider stop -which reduces the trade to just below a 2:1 profit:Risk

sowterdad · Oct 1, 2015

sowterdad said:
Was filled at $25- in reviewing the chart- I will look at the most recent daily push lower to adjust the stop just below- $24.00 is below the prior spike lower- allowing for the wider volatility- . in calculating a stop-loss- the best stop is the tightest stop- but there is also a need to be aware of the environment- In this example, a recent swing low in this higher upturn is perhaps more appropriate than a standard % loss- This is $.50 wider than my initial stop- and the question becomes whether this wider stop -which reduces the trade to just below a 2:1 profit:Risk

Today's price retraced- and my original $24.50 stop would have become a market sell.
Since i worked late and did not get home until 8 pm,,, i barely glimpsed that the markets were higher- perhaps because of the budget vote?
Regardless, Giving myself the time to view the trade, and it's eventual outcome is a good exercise- Today's trade is now down by $50.00 and a stop -out will be -$100.00
I'm comfortable with this present stop- but it's just at the lows of the recent range. and not at the wide side of that range- I could easily get stopped out in the next day or two if the market responds bullishly.
The prior swing low pullback was $24.20 in this most recent move-but that could easily be erased by a bullish announcement the market has been anticipating.
Having a trade on keeps my feet in the Fire- and this continuous Rain and approaching Hurricane prevents me from working on the hOME fRONT PROJECT-
What was interesting about working late this pm, is that i met a personable young man that is trading Forex in after hours- and Has spent $15k in training costs- I hope to learn a bit from him- but since he is still working for a living and not trading for a living- I assume it's a work in progress- much like the majority of us. He was taught to employ a position sizing approach- limiting his exposure to Loss- and not taking oversized single bets.
I don't have time to bring up a chart-but my entry was based on what looked to be a move higher- but i didn't set a higher buy-stop entry- and got filled on a mediocre move up-
Now, we've dropped back into the sideways channel-
Giving it some room to see where it goes- A lot will depend on Friday's jobs report -PERHAPS.

sowterdad · Oct 1, 2015

Posting a 10 minute chart of PJP that includes what occurred on 8-24 - "Flash Crash"

I should have taken 1 minute chart snapshots- but did not- and limited to going back that far in time in stockcharts faster time frame data.

Point I want to make is in a "flash crash" type of situation- a conventional stop-loss becomes a market sell-order- in a normal market of narrow spreads between the buy and the Ask- a fill is normally within the range one expects. In a Flash Crash- a stop- becomes a market order to sell- and if there are no buy orders waiting in the vicinity- the market sell order may get filled WAY below where a trader expects based on prior history-
In this chart example- If one had a safe and wide investor type stop-loss- of -10% or if one had an active trader type stop-loss of -2% on 8-23-
Neither one of those stops would have been filled anywhere near their expected stop levels.
The chart illustrates a price gap down and a sharp decline directly lower- Any stops that were in order would be executed only when a buy-order stepped up to fill that order-
In this example- it is entirely possible that the -2% or the -10% stop-loss would have filled at a -40% loss and rebounded 15 minutes later-
Only a stop- with a limit condition would have prevented the market order from executing at a huge flash crash low.
I wanted to take a moment to illustrate that this indeed occurs- and since it has happened in the past, will also occur in the future-
Suppose one happened to be all-in with stops on all positions and a flash crash occurs and you find out that instead of a -5% loss, your account stop orders filled at -50% down and your account is cut in half?
I'm not sure what the answer is- I think I experienced this in 2011 as well-
We assume we will have an orderly execution- but with the markets HFT making a lot of the orders, our small retail lots likely fill near the lows in such a situation.