long term position trading -primarily etf's-

sowterdad · Jul 1, 2015

Markets higher- Go Figure- Greece is not a concern? Puerto Rico not a concern? Fed not a concern?
The markets think that the Greece Referendum this weekend will result in the ousting of the present people in power-Tsipiras- and - I guess the assumption is that the new party in power will sign new accords and stay inside the EU.
What will fix the dismal economy the Greeks have ? The markets will read into any new
gov't what they want to believe- What will change in order for the Greeks to be able to repay the debt they are in default on?
I'm now sitting largely all cash- and i am comfortable with not forcing any trades -and my personal schedule is busy- consumed with things outside of trading, that are more demanding of my time.

The question I need to be prepared to ask myself- If the market does have a larger decline, where would i be willing to step in and BUY? and What?
An on going theme is pharma and biotech-
In terms of Biotech- IBB is larger cap, XBI includes some smaller cap companies- and i think is equal weighted? Have to verify that.
i also think I would want some wider global healthcare exposure- because this is a trend that likely will not go-away. As the economies of the developing world expand, healthcare becomes a greater option that was not previously available- Guggenheim offers a global fund-
and i am sure there are many others-
So, within the broad category of healthcare- Biotech and pharma- there are distinct ways to focus on categories within the broad segment. I think it is important - if one is investing- to get the wider exposure - If one is shorter term trading- go with the momentum favorite..
Cyber security- HACK- Nice decline- I think this market segment will be in demand for years to come- Presently in decline- but as Hackers get more aggressive, and sophisticated- and able to breach the US Gov't- protecting that data will remain a priority.

At this point, I am willing to sit and not fear that i missed the rally off the 2015 ultimate market bottom this week-
The skeptic that controls me shouts that this is not simply that easy a fix in the world condition. The longer term trader knows that the markets will assimilate and interpret as they choose-
Not a struggle i want to participate in - because the volatily swings can get very wide-
It was just a few years ago , we had 300-400 point swings up and down within a week.
History often repeats- not identically- but it takes us by surprise when a similarly wide move occurs.

sowterdad · Jul 3, 2015

Markets were closed today- Friday July 3 - I did not realize this until I got home early this pm. Talk about out of touch!
Charts tell us what occurred in the past, and we make the assumption that they can be extended into the future- until they fail to do so.
When i think of Warren Buffet- BRKB- I connect this with value investing within the US markets in solid companies- also including insurance and financials as holdings. After-all- Warren is the Oracle of Omaha. and Investors in his BRKB have had a great long term return.

i think that BRKB should be a good composite representation of mid cap US business with a solid value base- or Warren would not be holding the companies.
What I find interesting in comparing the charts of spy and BRKB- is that in the decline of 2008-09 , BRKB - as a "value" company lost as much as the Spy- No safety there.
Also, In the present condition in 2015- SPY is still holding above the EMA while BRKB has declined below the ema.
One would expect that a value oriented investment company would hold up better under market pressures than the SPY- Based on the chart, SPY appears to be holding the ema while BRKB has dropped below.
Is this the Smart money leaving BRKB?
Note that the SPY has not had a close on the monthly below the trend ema for 3+ years-
It could be argued that we are likely overdue for a more substantial correction- but thanks to the Fed policy intervention, the markets have been largely controlled on a nice steady upwards incline-
Anyone hear the music playing in the background? When will it stop- ? and how many chairs will be vacant?
This post is obviously focused on the possible negatives- The Fed through policy speeches has managed to keep the markets in line and going higher .
Why is BRKB showing a decline YTD?

At present, I am not making any attempts to trade in this market- I am standing in cash -
Other priorities are taking up my time- But i find it interesting that my preconceived notion- that a "value" oriented investment firm -like BRKB- should hold up better in an extended market- Instead, the chart indications suggest greater weakness- Thus, i think BRKB should be the 'canary' for the health of the market. i could obviously be mistaken- but if BRKB does not find reasons to go higher- What is the justification for the larger-wider markets to go higher?

Back to constructing the storm shelter/ sun room

sowterdad · Jul 5, 2015

I guess this is the weekend referendum in Greece to decide whether they will accept the revised concessions and stay in Euro land- or whether they will say screw you to the imposed Debt renegotiations- and go back to the Drachma?
I saw a Sunday pm analyst on the news suggesting that the outcome of the Greek drama could have a far reaching effect on the US citizen's 401 K value- i was not able to catch the remainder of the thinking beyond the headline statement-
Allow me to show my naivete- I don't know when I have ever purchased - allow me to correct that- I purchased a can of black olives last Christmas- for dinner- Possibly those came from Greece- An Export product!
How does a country that exports Olives, Ouzu? (Italian) and possibly Cheeses, hold the capacity to affect the financial markets around the world? OK,
It's a bigger and more complex picture- Snowball effect- unraveling of the present structure-

Quite frankly, If our system was more solid, we simply would ignore the financial bankruptcies of minor economies- Allow it to occur- contain the political turmoil - and allow socialism to bankrupt their country- and start again- With a view towards personal responsibility- Just because you live in a certain place or time does not mean you have a "Right' to all the benefits of those that happen to work for those benefits-
I don't want to sound like a staunch hard right winger- but like millions of Americans i have spent my life working year in and year out to provide for a better day for my family.-And i have done that for 40+ years- and now I have to be concerned about a dot on the map -Greece? It pisses me off!
It underlies that the US has become much more socialistic - and the similar fragility of balancing the benefits to the populace against the ledger sheet one is accruing, puts us in the same financial engineering bed as the rest of the world. I hate to be sounding so negative- but the markets are almost like viewing a magician's act- The Fed being the primary magician- with a slip of the tongue in a policy statement- the Fed plays the markets-
Eventually- This Fed market soothing- may have little or no effect-

The engineering works until the music stops and there are no longer enough chairs to sit one's arse on. This can go on for weeks, months, years; - and maybe in the end all will balance out-
We only have billions of live's affected by the experimenting process.......In the US and abroad as well.
In CASH- I just don't see the Risk to Reward worth it. But that's just me-
Congratulations to the nimble players that can make money out of all this!

sowterdad · Jul 12, 2015

A lot has ooccurred in a week-
We had China melting down with markets halted- Greece as an unknown - still- but looking positive -
Computer conflicts on the NYSE as well as on the airlines-
I barely catch any of these items of late-
I was tempted Friday to jump back in- Things appear to have made a turn higher- all markets up over 1% - But i realized I simply do not have time to distract myself from my present focus on the home front/construction- and cash is good- but this type of decline previously was called a buying opportunity- in past markets-
I wish I had something constructive to post - I plan to get back here eventually- but this is a good time to focus my energies on larger- more pressing priorities-

sowterdad · Jul 23, 2015

"
Dow closes in red for year as 3M, CAT weigh; transports fall more than 2% CNBC headline 7.23.15

Periodically checking in on what i am missing.....

sowterdad · Jul 24, 2015

7.24.15 headline
Stocks plunge more than 2% for week on earnings, global growth concerns.

looks like a very tough market to hold long positions, with the major
markets declining 1% +/- Today- Friday-
SPY closed at $208- opened 2015 near 202.00 That's Up just 3% for the year?
Q's held this week after last week's breakout move higher-
$indu looks to be inclined to break lower.

So much for a spot check on what i am missing out on- But the Q's look stronger over all -which favors looking at the tech sector .

What I did miss is that biotech and Pharma had a nice upside breakout the prior week- and this week provided the retest/pullback .Did not violate the break move higher.

The question becomes - If I have a market segment that has been an outperformer for the past 5 years- What holds me back from taking a position on this pullback?

sowterdad · Aug 15, 2015

8.15.15
Personal note-
Having been out of the markets these past weeks has not been a bad thing.
Work has been 6 days a week- Home project is progressing- but very slowly. I have not missed out on any "Easy gains" or large market rallies- possibly sidestepped some easy losses.
China has devalued the Yuan- and it appears that financial engineering- similar to the Fed's actions- appears to be the course of action for other countries.
Got out of work early enough to view Friday's close- 3-4 pm- Every sector is in the green for the week-
I decided to take partial entry positions back into HACK & PJP- Just a toe in the waters-
Both are at relatively lower price points- Hack has declined some -10% PJP down about -5% Appear to have some 'stability' on the charts, or at least a pause in the decline- compared to XBI- (biotech) which appears to be dropping lower.
At this point, I am not placing a tight stop-loss on these entry positions- I don't think the chart pattern of either position indicates a trend reversal higher- is on the cusp.
I'm giving both of these positions some room for stops-

sowterdad · Aug 17, 2015

As a follow up on Friday's entries- I had the day off today - and while waiting for an appointment, had started rereading Danial Solin- and his 2011 quick-read book on investing.
He points out in the first few chapters that active trading generally underperforms the index-
I returned home this pm and bought some TQQ, XBI, and RXL- in the trading account-
all had closes higher- Nice to be in a positive market flow- But what happens when this positive warm feeling hits a reef and the tide reverses? Tomorrow, Friday, next week?
The issue with volatility is that it causes you to react -if you are not prepared for it .
Will I react just as i always react? Will I take the next downleg as the start of a precipitous decline just commencing? I am not employing any tight stops on these transactions- We'll see.
I hadn't planned to get reactivated yet- But from a chart stand- this looks possibly interesting at this point- I took RXL for some leverage- and perhaps a more active trade-
I didn't care for the XBI - but this recent decline gives a base to consider stopping out on.
I really like the 2 hr chart/ reversal- and 225 .00 should hold as the prior swing low-
PJP similarly- prior lower high was $82 - $78 made the recent floor
I bought Tech because i think that will lead so 113 should not be seen again.
Still lots to do on the home project- and financial decisions i have post poned because i am 'busy'-
Today was a good day to be long.

sowterdad · Aug 18, 2015

sowterdad said:
As a follow up on Friday's entries- I had the day off today - and while waiting for an appointment, had started rereading Danial Solin- and his 2011 quick-read book on investing.
He points out in the first few chapters that active trading generally underperforms the index-
I returned home this pm and bought some TQQ, XBI, and RXL- in the trading account-
all had closes higher- Nice to be in a positive market flow- But what happens when this positive warm feeling hits a reef and the tide reverses? Tomorrow, Friday, next week?
The issue with volatility is that it causes you to react -if you are not prepared for it .
Will I react just as i always react? Will I take the next downleg as the start of a precipitous decline just commencing? I am not employing any tight stops on these transactions- We'll see.
I hadn't planned to get reactivated yet- But from a chart stand- this looks possibly interesting at this point- I took RXL for some leverage- and perhaps a more active trade-
I didn't care for the XBI - but this recent decline gives a base to consider stopping out on.
I really like the 2 hr chart/ reversal- and 225 .00 should hold as the prior swing low-
PJP similarly- prior lower high was $82 - $78 made the recent floor
I bought Tech because i think that will lead so 113 should not be seen again.
Still lots to do on the home project- and financial decisions i have post poned because i am 'busy'-
Today was a good day to be long.

Well, today being the next day is a different story- PJP had a nice gap higher while XBI dropped lower- This is worth mentioning as the differential is one is biotech- the other healthcare-
RXL did not give me the extra pop I expected.
I'm not too anxious here- Haven't set any hard stops yet- don't want to get taken out on a minor volatility move-

sowterdad · Aug 21, 2015

I'm not particularly pleased with myself- and my recent "entusiastic" entry back into the markets.-last week -sans stops- But, I'll share some of the results of my laxitude-

Well, I should have considered allowing myself to be somewhat "Anxious" -not complacent- and set those hard stops based on the faster time frame charts - after-all.

Jeesh- I love looking back in Hindsight because i can be really accurate when I do that!
Like a lot of folks- I've been expecting a correction that has been long overdue- should have been a bit more patient and not got antsy earlier this prior week just because of a green veneer/patina showing up that week.
My intent was to also not get concerned with the day to day market fluctuations- and perhaps focus more on weekly time frames- vs daily or hourly, and take some "Investment" positions- Well. I now certainly find myself as that reluctant "Investor" vs trader., with everything down hard on the weekly as well.

I didn't set stops-initially- because i felt that the volatility swings would simply reach out and take me out- but I didn't plan on this type of hard 1 week severe sell here as I thought the market had gotten accustomed to all of the "known' issues- China slowing, oil declining- Fed possibly raising rates could be a positive-
As having held a much more disciplined approach for so many years- My laxness to view and assess the market's actions mid week- Not only did I not do that- I relatively ignored the market- didn't consider setting the stops -even on the weekly chart. Just preoccupation and laziness on my part. No excuses - I should have simply acted and sold earlier in the week . Since I really didn't give the market much of a look earlier this week, made no provisions for the possibilities- I totally deserve the results i get.
Interestingly this week- In my company sponsored IRA account- I just made arrangements to transfer a substantial amount of that account over to a Vanguard brokerage account- I've been largely in cash in that account since early in the year- not likeing the mutual fund structure that comprise the offerings- I had actually had several conversations with one Advisor who was promoting a "Hybrid Annuity" - "principal guaranteed safe-" "returns capturing some of the market upside" for some of those retirement assets- I made the decision to go to Vanguard Funds Tuesday with those funds- simply could not get my head wrapped around all of the variations offered in the annuity and the restrictions and penalties- There was a certain sense of relief in finally making the decision and initiating the transfer with a Vanguard rep-
Back to the position I now find myself in in the trading account-

Everything sold off across the board- and this Friday 8.21. Dow closed down over -500 16,459. Down over -1,000 pts for the week. World markets also selling off-
Currency manipulation by other countries is not keeping the balloon afloat.

The Vix sentiment is really high- Market pundits citing this as an extreme 'emotional' sell-off and potentially over reacted to-on high volume- and an oversold bounce may occur I don't know that i buy that theory - yet I chose to add some TQQQ just at the close- $92.22. This buying more of a losing position is "averaging down" .I will concede
that this is a flawed approach- as no one knows how low the selling may actually go-
I have to ask myself - Am I willing to simply hold this position- or the others for that matter-for a long period-multi months- That was not the intended approach when I started this thread-Might be more of my "Investment" approach- not particularly appropriate here- and- let me add: leveraged funds often do not track well, and can have significant decay over time.
It's amazing that i HAVE DROPPED $1400.00 IN A WEEK-
Account value is now $14,100.00 . Leverage is great when it works In your favor- but Look out on the down side!

Thought I would update this thread today- and "share" some of what i allowed to happen to my account-
In the final summary- I know that i can succeed best only when I pick trending positions in trending markets- I intentionally had gone flat- out of the market- and when i took a look- saw some green-this month- jumped back in without a plan or a focus-
I indeed get from the market exactly what i deserve -
Have a plan, Trade the plan- Hourly, Daily, Weekly.
Good Luck!