long term position trading -primarily etf's-

[sowterdad]

Saturday -6.6.15 - 1 more day and it's back to work.
Never worked as hard on a vacation! Will be worth the effort-
Started block work- This will likely take several weeks - evenings and weekends-
just to get things up to floor elevation- My normal routine of DVR cnbc will be delayed-Once we acquire the needed digital adaptors...
If I was a more prudent person, I would simply put everything into cash and return when i have more time- and that may be the decision I actually make down the road. For the moment- I am playing out the active hand that I have authored.


What has occurred to me , is that I simply do not have the free time necessary to devote to seeking out new trades - the research, the ability to review and quantify -review a multitude of charts....and try to make an assessment of what forces are at work.
I think one has to be careful in believing that the US market should be the main focus of all-or the majority of one's investments. Historically that may have been the case- At least for the past 6 years - and that has likely been the profitable approach during that time-

As can be seen in some of the ETF's that give exposure outside of the US- there is life there-And the potential for growth-

What i recognize is that I am limited by a number of factors- Time- ability- dedication- focus- etc, to take advantage of sector rotations on a wider scale.
Ultimately, this may be worth paying a small monthly fee to define and qualify potential candidates . Everyone gets solicitations-- I am generally the skeptic.
Any suggestions?

 

[sowterdad]

DXGE - hedged Germany ETF- $29.50 was the bottom base, and instead of holding a tight stop just under perceived prior support, I elected top give it some room. My stop is at $29.30- and price spent 2 days under the $29.50 "support'.
Not understanding the complex issue of Europe-& Greece- A trade based on Germany and hedged against the Euro seemed to be the right approach- But Greece is once again in the spotlight-It looks like i will be stopped out on DXGE unless the European markets rebound Monday.
On the other hand, I think Japan closed up strongly- DXJ

 

[sowterdad]

Quick trade Note- DXGE stopped out $29.09 at the open as it declined further-
HEDJ (no longer a position) also declined similarly.
DXJ broke it's 2 hr trend ema and is at my stop to protect my entry.
XBI actually moved fractionally higher
uup is declining - TBT looks poised to break out higher- I am trying a buy-stop $50.50- lmt $50.60- $48.50 is the entry stop.
DUG- raising the stop to $51.00- It's trying to go higher- BUT- looks weak.
MKTs all were lower
RE: Monday- never posted- interrupted-
Tues: DXJ sold $58.37 Filled on tbt $50.60
XBI weakened & is at the low end of the channel- I have a limit order to add to the position at $236.00. I may lower that limit or scratch that trade -
Healthcare- PJP looks like it's ready to go lower-

Financials are reportedly going to benefit from a rate increase- But not showing much momentum.
SPY put in a perfect Doji- Open and close $208.45 - with an equal uprise and decline intraday.

Here we are, 6 months into the year , with the SPY up just about 1.5%, Dow down for the YTD, and the Q's appearing to be trying to trend higher- up4% or so YTD.
This has been a tough sled for the US markets. June is proving to be historically weak- but' we're not declining sharp.ly yet- A nice -10% correction might get some attention.
It's analagous to "it's time to change the diaper" - No one wants to do it- it stinks, causes a reaction- but once it's over and done- it cleans up the atmosphere...

I think it's a toss up between DUG & USO- I Will revert to a $1 stop-loss $50.77 and see how this pans out.

 

[sowterdad]

Quick trade Note- DXGE stopped out $29.09 at the open as it declined further-
HEDJ (no longer a position) also declined similarly.
DXJ broke it's 2 hr trend ema and is at my stop to protect my entry.
XBI actually moved fractionally higher
uup is declining - TBT looks poised to break out higher- I am trying a buy-stop $50.50- lmt $50.60- $48.50 is the entry stop.
DUG- raising the stop to $51.00- It's trying to go higher- BUT- looks weak.
MKTs all were lower
RE: Monday- never posted- interrupted-
Tues: DXJ sold $58.37 Filled on tbt $50.60
XBI weakened & is at the low end of the channel- I have a limit order to add to the position at $236.00. I may lower that limit or scratch that trade -
Healthcare- PJP looks like it's ready to go lower-

Financials are reportedly going to benefit from a rate increase- But not showing much momentum.
SPY put in a perfect Doji- Open and close $208.45 - with an equal uprise and decline intraday.

Here we are, 6 months into the year , with the SPY up just about 1.5%, Dow down for the YTD, and the Q's appearing to be trying to trend higher- up4% or so YTD.
This has been a tough sled for the US markets. June is proving to be historically weak- but' we're not declining sharp.ly yet- A nice -10% correction might get some attention.
It's analagous to "it's time to change the diaper" - No one wants to do it- it stinks, causes a reaction- but once it's over and done- it cleans up the atmosphere...

I think it's a toss up between DUG & USO- I Will revert to a $1 stop-loss $50.77 and see how this pans out.

Well, it panned out as one might expect- stopped out on DUG $50.75.
TBT moved up about 2%- and XBI revisited it's recent 240+ level.
With the market sectors all higher- XLF finally made a step up higher-
Both HEDJ and DXGE looked to make a turn higher- guess that's on Greece and Merkel's willingness to discuss ------But no matter how it plays out for the theatre audience-
Greece will likely continue to disappoint down the road- and why does the market put so much concern on Greece? We've been here in the past years on numerous occaisions- where "concerns" about Greece has reportedly been the cause for some market instability-
Again, I'm showing my general ignorance of the larger political influences- Maybe the concerns do not end with Greece alone-
Perhaps if Greece falls it undermines the tenuous thread that binds the largely socialist states with their very high unemployment-and undercurrent of social unrest ......Something Europe wants to keep on a back burner.......
Anyways- I don't have a clue as to the WHY a market rally could be attributed to the vague
notion that Merkel & Greek counterpart may start some talks......

Why should that be able to affect the US Markets? Are we also on that tight a thread?

After an extended 15 hr work day- I'm ready for the markets to suck up the Fed will make a token Rate increase, it will be a positive on the improving US markets- and not hamper growth as it is already priced in-
Forget the Greek tragedy that is playing out- But the European contagion is a legitimate concern if one starts to challenge all those other borderline socialist countries that have + 20% unemployment, 6 weeks of vacation, etc- Because if one domino falls, it may knock over the next- and then the next-
Much like when the auditor asks intially for last years returns- and then comes back and wants the prior three years- just to probe a bit deeper-I have no real insight as to what the value is to not allow Greece to Default- Companies and businesses that do not mind their expenses - that spend more than they take in- eventually have a day of reckoning- It should be the same with Countries.

I know we are in a bull market that is historically Long in the Tooth - That our PE ratios are on the "fully valued" historically- but perhaps still some room to run.
That the FED has manipulated this market - and now world economies are imitating what the Fed has done .
Simply phrased "We are Not in Kansas Anymore " seems appropriate .
At some point- markets reevaluate- There may be extended periods where excess valuations are allowed and purchased- but perhaps if these valuations are indeed excessive- the market eventually reverts to the mean- perhaps overshoots.
When will we ever reach that point? I don't have a clue- So, play the chart you are given-
Not the one your personal bias wants

 

[sowterdad]

Markets a step higher- The TWC tech person came to the house to try to correct the issues with the digital decoders devices- Got things working for an hour- and then back off-line-
Love the technology......When it works. It's such a core part of our lives to expect it will work on demand.

TBT dropped -4% today. That is a substantial 1 day drop , taking it below my entry .
i bought into the momentum move higher- but do not intend to sit this one out with a wide stop-loss- just to be kept in the trade- The potential lower trend line would drop another 4 or 5% - AND there is no assurance that that will continue to hold-

The better trade- is to be a buyer at the lower trend line- thereby reducing the % Risk on the stop-loss-

i had planned to illustrate with a chart -
but It's getting past the witching hour-
The end result of this market's indecision and wider volatility is that swings lower taking out a stop-often close higher- The wider the time frame one steps back into - the wider is the range of the volatility swings.

Virtually everything I have been stopped out on recently looks to be turning higher That's the effect of a 2 day market turn-a-round- .
PJP, TAN, XSD, DXJ- are all at potential pullback reversals- Don't want to forget tech-
Will look again in the AM.,......Perhaps add some reentries-

 

[sowterdad]

Gollllee!
Remember Gomer Pyle?
No added trades - A quick Summary update-and some notes to date
I'm 6 months or so into this thread, and i have not been able to accomplish what i initially set out to do- i.e......... demonstrate a profitable (and replicable) trading process based on technicals and selection- initially based on a continuation of my approach last year - faster time frame chart - reducing the % between stops and possible entries.... and possible reentries following a stop-out with a resurgence in price-

The net account value is down to $15,363.00 from $16,225.00 - or -5.3% - Prior to the cash add to the account this year- add an additional -.5% and that means I am Nominally down -6 or -6.5% % or so on average. Let's use -7% as that will include present positions -should they stop-out. No claims to a winning approach from this thread yet.

If time allowed, I would go back and chart each and every trade made this past 6 months- and see what was the follow up conclusion- days -perhaps weeks later. I don't have that luxury of free time presently. Or, I don't choose to expend the time to demonstrate - It's about having limited choices.....due to Time. I'm presently making choices in terms of time expended outside of a trading focus - There is that J.O.B. thing going on as well with some extra efforts in hours-required. But this is not about excuses......

What has occurred this year has been a change in the overall US markets ability to trend-And- also my lack of ability to adapt & find market segments that outperform. But, this market condition has occurred on numerous occaisions in the past- Greece has been the Hot button before- The failure of the Gov't to fund a budget and drop in credit status- On many occaisions, we have markets that have reacted negatively to external events- and then move on higher- Lack of Adaptability to a change in environment is why we do not have dinosaurs ruling the earth today- or so some scientists claim.

Back when- Reading "Market Wizards" - and some of the long term outperforming
wizards had extended periods when their approach to the markets failed- but they stayed the course- eventually finding that their approach came back into favor and they continued then to outperform - despite the large temporary drawdown-
Hedge funds reportedly have been having a better than average year compared to past year's performance-
Private investors- or small retail traders like myself -lack the cash reserves, discipline,conviction in a method, and stomach to sit through larger drawdowns.

The benefit of the past 6 months is that i have started to get a wider focus , and am learning -albeit slowly- that there are many different ways to approach the markets through different ETF's - Conventional, sector focused-index focused- Country focused- Currency hedged- and then there are the many variations that can be considered- ETF's that dynamically select from the best of companies depending on their meeting certain criteria-
ETF's that equal weight an index vs a market cap weight-

Sector rotation strategies- Because Pharma & biotech outperformed for the past 3 years- does not mean they will continue to outperform for the next 3 . But perhaps they will.
HAcking and Cyber security will be an ongoing problem into the future- It would seem to be worth following hACK OR SOMETHING SIMILAR- Tech will likely be a sector worth following further- Because technology leads us forward-
One has to get more cautious when the market going higher is based on smaller narrowed segments-
Is it not the Dow theory that transports will lead the markets higher as business production expands- and a vibrant economy unfolds- ???
$TRAN has broken down this year particularly in the past 3 months- Dow theory may seem antiquated -
BRKB may also seem antiquated- But it is a Canary that does not look healthy on the weekly chart-It looks ready to make a directional move- with the last week's price action a Weekly Doji- indecisions- Investors are on the
Fed will give some guidance on Wednesday- A rate increase has to be in the future- should already be priced into the markets- but maybe the markets want a reason to give a reaction? To have a sell-off on the news when it occurs- Might as well put in some limit orders to buy 20% down from here- just in case the Fed roils the markets instead of
passifying them .

Presently, I have a lot on my plate outside of trading/investing-and my primary focus will be there- I will see what transpires in terms of attempted trades in the weeks ahead, but I will not be forcing any trades , and will likely reduce position size-

 

[sowterdad]

I added to XBI on today's pullback with a limit order $236.00
This raises my avg cost in the IB acct to $229.71.
Chart attached-
Today's pullback found my limit order very close to the price low- and i was filled. I've had that limit order waiting for over a week
With that fill, it comes on a price weakness and drop in momentum.
With the big Fed question mark ahead- and Greece- and Europe and China-
Well, I'm stepping back into the more tight stop - aggressive approach here.
I will split the position with slightly wider stops- one just below today's low for the add-
and one below the recent range for the lower entry. Still trying to cultivate that multi-week/month larger gain in XBI.

 

[sowterdad]

TBT is a recent position I entered in the IB account- Went higher and quickly retraced.
It pulled back to the prior swing low- and closed slightly higher-
Doesn't look bullish- tightened the stop-loss.

Has anyone told HACK this is not the time to be making new highs?

 

[sowterdad]

Added to hack today as my limit filled $.03 above the lows- and it moved higher-
Price is extended I need to acknowledge- This can be seen in the widening space between the ema's.
employing a 30 min hi-lo Renko chart here -

 

[sowterdad]

6.17.15

nice to have a green day- Markets closed up marginally- Dow, S&P, Nas up .20 on average.
I had a nice turna round in TBT- up 1.7 after being on the verge of stopping out.
Dollar went lower today- Interesting article in CNBC "http://www.cnbc.com/id/102767915"-
EUO- was down, HEDJ down, DXGE down, DXJ down EWG down.
I know that one of these days a bell will go off in my brain and I will think I understand the way different currency related or hedged trades will respond - but it is clearly not in the immediate future-
I think EWG - after 3 days flat should try to go higher- What is not "known" -
If Germany is Europe's engine for growth- What is happening there?
However, it's net best to be non-aggressive at this point-
The muted /subdued market response to the Fed - it sounds like the Fed thinks we're on a path for a start of a gradual rate increase- possibly this year......
PJP is still in a sideways channel (separate position) XLF not very inspired-