long term position trading -primarily etf's-

[sowterdad]

I think it's to one's advantage if one has a sense of what one is trading an what may cause it to move in one direction or another- The currencies- and their relationships - to political and economic influences are perhaps open to speculation as to what will move them. For example- Pundits were talking a strong dollar a few months ago- and look at how it has declined- Look at a weekly chart of UUP, and then change it to EUO- Walking hand in hand.
" Whats wrong with making money in trend off of MA's?" Absolutely nothing wrong- When trending. I tend to rely on moving averages on all time frames- for reference - direction- and momentum- One has to make the decision as to how much exposure to volatility one can think is appropriate- select a time frame that will support that level of RISK graphically. I don't trade on moving average crossovers-though- I trade more on price action as it behaves -with a drop under a moving average a warning sign that I may elect to respond to- There's a world of difference in exposure depending on the time frame one applies-
Choose your charting preference- Price Action, SLA- Trend lines, Moving averages, FIB levels--Gann- many others I guess- and then choose a time frame to act on, and another for a longer view.
"The question is rhetorical as you are a better trader than i."

I don't know that to be the case at all-Not Relevant nor an accurate statement.
Today was the icing on the cake in terms of being on the wrong side of the market- and achieving a new account low.

But consider that I am not a "Better Trader" than you at all.
But - becoming a "better trader" is my personal goal.- and is likely yours.

One should not measure their relative sense of failure or success against another trader. That's a mistake- There will always be Traders that make more- or lose more- Traders that have more money- and traders that have less money- Traders that make a huge win- but perhaps took an inordinate amount of Risk in doing so- Other traders with large accounts have a distinct advantage to traders with smaller accounts.
Trading is long term- It's not about what happened this week- or this month- It's not about some trader's big 100% gain


A "Better Trader" is yourself seeking to compare and improve your present trading against the trader you were last month- last year- 5 years ago. Compare yourself only against some market benchmark- SPY, FXE, etc. if you desire a metric of your performance- but then compare the amount of beta- Risk and volatility- that came with that performance- That's the only fair metric that you or any other trader needs- Because, we all have different tolerances and willingness to take on and accept RISK- Would you prefer to have a 15% gain with a 25% volatility swing- or
a 10% gain with a 10% volatility- Knowing what you are personally comfortable with in market exposure/volatility- and balance that against the net gain or loss you achieve in your approach - is what counts the most-

What is "Better"- ? Better for me implies higher consistency in my approach, Even if the approach is losing during a period of time, if i can execute properly-, and take my losses as needed- I am being effective -in my execution- Then- Recognize when the approach is not performing up to expectation- adapt to the changing environment, and modify the approach- perhaps initially smaller position size- perhaps look to see what is working elsewheres- Also- managing the RISK in each position, reducing the exposure to leverage, to size- and eliminating careless mistakes in order placement- and stop adjustments. I need to work on all of these.....
BETTER- for me - will be expanding my understanding of the bigger picture- and how to try to take advantage of it.

"ll the writers i read know a lot more than i yet still put on their pants and tie and shlep to work each day for income and benefits. Why dont they trade for a living?"

I think the answer to the question is obvious- It is easier to be an academic and do hind sight quarterback calls- than it would be to put yourself on the line and make that call up front- - IF you have such great trading prowess, Why not simply focus on executing your trading with investment monies- Why would you seek a subscriber base as income- That would be a major distraction to simply executing your winning approach for a select group of investment monies- Anyone managing a subscriber service- likely has found the subscriber service charges much more profitable than their own trading- and with virtually NO Risk! Ca-Ching!

Additionally- Let me add my personal disclaimer-
Last year I had a decent 12% +/- trading gain- with limited downside protection using a fast 2 hr chart- I had more losing trades than winning trades- but they were small- I learned to allow winners a bit of room to run longer- Doesn't occur all that often.
That was fine- because i was hunting in a private FED hosted preserve- in a perfect season for my approach.

This year, Hunting similar quarry, similar methods- has not worked out well. The tight stops have been executed as volatility has increased. Lack of trend momentum finds a trade looks good for a day or two, but then reverses. A prudent hunter would return to the lodge.....I am willing to hunt in the rain- to my disadvantage. A smart hunter would be looking for a different preserve.

MY Trading account is Not my retirement account- It is a separate account- My trading account is the proxy for the time when I make the decision whether or not to actively manage my retirement account- Presently I am unimpressed with my abilities as a trader to position myself in the market gyrations- So, Vanguard- or a Robo account (Betterment.com) is high on the successor list. MUTUAL FUNDS are NOT on my list.

I would recommend to not be at all concerned with how you perceive anyone else's
trading - and simply evaluate your own progression against something like an Index.
This will give you a more balanced perspective of your performance/Risk - and forget what the other guy made on such and such a trade-
I will expand this on another thread.....
Regards- Thanks for posting-






I

In the prior post - I wanted to point out that each of us should compare against an index- both performance and Risk- and do not bother trying to compare against another trader's results- What counts is each trader's tolerance for Risk - balance against the Reward.

This type of market is a great teaching market- It is a warm-up - to what may occur down the road here- I think I posted the other day I was getting my ass kicked- A little Ben- Gay and I felt better- added to my positions- and - Damn! NOW I find I am getting my ass kicked in a one legged ass-kicking contest- Yes- Nose down in the dirt- Good visual!
I wanted this thread to be instructive in how my greater participation and attention provided larger performance- greater gains- Somehow, I got that wrong- it seems-in the short term- because i believed that once strong market segments would continue.
I got hit hard today as i added to Friday's positions- and saw a lot of market decline after the opening filled my buy-stops.
MY present account value is down 4.6% or $700 from the $16,225.00.

I added one winning trade today- TBT-
I also screwed up- this am- I intended to add 20 shares to the HACK position- with a Buy-stop- and instead Bought 120 shares on the auto-fill order .and that dropped 4% .
There is no excuse on my part to overlook this order-

- and i thought I had taken the time to review and adjust stops this am- but I overlooked the added auto-fill block order. Granted, i only had 1 cup of coffee - but how could i have missed this order?

I think an astute trader recognizes when the environment is changing- and they adapt to that change by either increasing or decreasing the market exposure, and then seeks to adjust to where the market flow is going. I got sucked in by the market rally the other day-
Not pleasant-
This sector swing can be demonstrated by the trending that occurs - Dollar- oil- oil services- emerging markets- CU-copper- Dollar- Euro- Tech,
Volatility makes for the need to consider wider stops- and - one has to ask- If the stops are hit- is this the playing field one wants to participate in?

Final thought for this pm- Are we on the verge of a weak market report this Friday, and a greater sell-off? Will May see the proverbial decline?
How am I positioned here? Do I hold - is this near a low?
I feel like I have gotten caught by the market with my hand in the cookie jar-
This is where I do not want to allow myself to turn from trader into unwilling investor- and i will take the loss as opposed to the mental loss of a break in the mindset/approach. I cannot allow 1 wrong to spawn a greater wrong.

 

[sowterdad]

In the prior post - I wanted to point out that each of us should compare against an index- both performance and Risk- and do not bother trying to compare against another trader's results- What counts is each trader's tolerance for Risk - balance against the Reward.

This type of market is a great teaching market- It is a warm-up - to what may occur down the road here- I think I posted the other day I was getting my ass kicked- A little Ben- Gay and I felt better- added to my positions- and - Damn! NOW I find I am getting my ass kicked in a one legged ass-kicking contest- Yes- Nose down in the dirt- Good visual!
I wanted this thread to be instructive in how my greater participation and attention provided larger performance- greater gains- Somehow, I got that wrong- it seems-in the short term- because i believed that once strong market segments would continue.
I got hit hard today as i added to Friday's positions- and saw a lot of market decline after the opening filled my buy-stops.
MY present account value is down 4.6% or $700 from the $16,225.00.

I added one winning trade today- TBT-
I also screwed up- this am- I intended to add 20 shares to the HACK position- with a Buy-stop- and instead Bought 120 shares on the auto-fill order .and that dropped 4% .
There is no excuse on my part to overlook this order-

- and i thought I had taken the time to review and adjust stops this am- but I overlooked the added auto-fill block order. Granted, i only had 1 cup of coffee - but how could i have missed this order?

I think an astute trader recognizes when the environment is changing- and they adapt to that change by either increasing or decreasing the market exposure, and then seeks to adjust to where the market flow is going. I got sucked in by the market rally the other day-
Not pleasant-
This sector swing can be demonstrated by the trending that occurs - Dollar- oil- oil services- emerging markets- CU-copper- Dollar- Euro- Tech,
Volatility makes for the need to consider wider stops- and - one has to ask- If the stops are hit- is this the playing field one wants to participate in?

Final thought for this pm- Are we on the verge of a weak market report this Friday, and a greater sell-off? Will May see the proverbial decline?
How am I positioned here? Do I hold - is this near a low?
I feel like I have gotten caught by the market with my hand in the cookie jar-
This is where I do not want to allow myself to turn from trader into unwilling investor- and i will take the loss as opposed to the mental loss of a break in the mindset/approach. I cannot allow 1 wrong to spawn a greater wrong.

Checked my stop orders this Wednesday am- I still hold partial positions in TQQQ, XBI,-full position in PJP, Hack, and a partial position in TBT- stop @ $44.80- TBT closed weakly- near the recent prior $47.50 level. Can it get past this level?

USO closed above the recent range- technically 'breaking out higher'. Buy-stop entry $21.00- lmt $21.10 .I had a prior buy-stop order that was gapped over.$20.53- $20.60-
I will widen that limit to $20.85 .
XLB- @ the low side of the present uptrend move- Buy-stop $50.60- limit $51.00
Futures are reportedly higher at 6 am-

 

[sowterdad]

I was able to catch this Janet Yellen- market newsmaker headline this 5.6.15 lunch.

Email notification- the remaining TQQQ stopped out- XBI is up slightly-
TBT moved up sharply- I should have been filled on an addition to this position.

Time to hunker down and evaluate- This has all the earmarks of the "Go Away in May"
sentiment coming true.
If I could access my trading account - I likely would be reducing my losing positions .
I see HACK is heading straight down- and there is not a lot of history to this ETF- nor volume.
I had an order adjusted that should have filled on USO as well-I gave it some ample range with the limit.
Even the venerable BRKB- Canary in the Value Mine has not been immune to the selling the past 2 days- after what looked to be an attempt at reversing the recent downtrend that has been ongoing since the beginning of the year.

The question to be reconciled- Will we have a deeper-steeper correction- and when is it a good buying opportunity on reduced valuations?
I just caught a news clip- Pisani- discussing VIRTU- SYMBOL VIRT- Just started trading- HFT firm- mentioned that they do well trading currencies-during periods of Volatility- I hadn't thought about this area of financials- It sounds like it 's an active trading firm- using HFT techniques- Could be an interesting way to get multiple exposure to trading currencies- or whatever else they actively trade. I mention this company- it's not an ETF- but it sparked some interest in that I don't claim to even grasp the overall currency pricing/trading-that EuroD...has mentioned.
Owning some shares in a company that can go both long/short with active trading in these markets might be a prudent way for an investor to approach a confusing subject-And one has exposure theoretically to multiple trade positions- Might be worth looking into as a niche segment worth pursuing.

It also seems that automation- in many forms - is getting a much stronger hold on the markets of today- HFT- Robo investing- And Where else ?
Lunch is over-

 

[sowterdad]

 

[eurusdzn]

I think it's to one's advantage if one has a sense of what one is trading an what may cause it to move in one direction or another- The currencies- and their relationships - to political and economic influences are perhaps open to speculation as to what will move them. For example- Pundits were talking a strong dollar a few months ago- and look at how it has declined- Look at a weekly chart of UUP, and then change it to EUO- Walking hand in hand.
" Whats wrong with making money in trend off of MA's?" Absolutely nothing wrong- When trending. I tend to rely on moving averages on all time frames- for reference - direction- and momentum- One has to make the decision as to how much exposure to volatility one can think is appropriate- select a time frame that will support that level of RISK graphically. I don't trade on moving average crossovers-though- I trade more on price action as it behaves -with a drop under a moving average a warning sign that I may elect to respond to- There's a world of difference in exposure depending on the time frame one applies-
Choose your charting preference- Price Action, SLA- Trend lines, Moving averages, FIB levels--Gann- many others I guess- and then choose a time frame to act on, and another for a longer view.
"The question is rhetorical as you are a better trader than i."

I don't know that to be the case at all-Not Relevant nor an accurate statement.
Today was the icing on the cake in terms of being on the wrong side of the market- and achieving a new account low.

But consider that I am not a "Better Trader" than you at all.
But - becoming a "better trader" is my personal goal.- and is likely yours.

One should not measure their relative sense of failure or success against another trader. That's a mistake- There will always be Traders that make more- or lose more- Traders that have more money- and traders that have less money- Traders that make a huge win- but perhaps took an inordinate amount of Risk in doing so- Other traders with large accounts have a distinct advantage to traders with smaller accounts.
Trading is long term- It's not about what happened this week- or this month- It's not about some trader's big 100% gain


A "Better Trader" is yourself seeking to compare and improve your present trading against the trader you were last month- last year- 5 years ago. Compare yourself only against some market benchmark- SPY, FXE, etc. if you desire a metric of your performance- but then compare the amount of beta- Risk and volatility- that came with that performance- That's the only fair metric that you or any other trader needs- Because, we all have different tolerances and willingness to take on and accept RISK- Would you prefer to have a 15% gain with a 25% volatility swing- or
a 10% gain with a 10% volatility- Knowing what you are personally comfortable with in market exposure/volatility- and balance that against the net gain or loss you achieve in your approach - is what counts the most-

What is "Better"- ? Better for me implies higher consistency in my approach, Even if the approach is losing during a period of time, if i can execute properly-, and take my losses as needed- I am being effective -in my execution- Then- Recognize when the approach is not performing up to expectation- adapt to the changing environment, and modify the approach- perhaps initially smaller position size- perhaps look to see what is working elsewheres- Also- managing the RISK in each position, reducing the exposure to leverage, to size- and eliminating careless mistakes in order placement- and stop adjustments. I need to work on all of these.....
BETTER- for me - will be expanding my understanding of the bigger picture- and how to try to take advantage of it.

"ll the writers i read know a lot more than i yet still put on their pants and tie and shlep to work each day for income and benefits. Why dont they trade for a living?"

I think the answer to the question is obvious- It is easier to be an academic and do hind sight quarterback calls- than it would be to put yourself on the line and make that call up front- - IF you have such great trading prowess, Why not simply focus on executing your trading with investment monies- Why would you seek a subscriber base as income- That would be a major distraction to simply executing your winning approach for a select group of investment monies- Anyone managing a subscriber service- likely has found the subscriber service charges much more profitable than their own trading- and with virtually NO Risk! Ca-Ching!

Additionally- Let me add my personal disclaimer-
Last year I had a decent 12% +/- trading gain- with limited downside protection using a fast 2 hr chart- I had more losing trades than winning trades- but they were small- I learned to allow winners a bit of room to run longer- Doesn't occur all that often.
That was fine- because i was hunting in a private FED hosted preserve- in a perfect season for my approach.

This year, Hunting similar quarry, similar methods- has not worked out well. The tight stops have been executed as volatility has increased. Lack of trend momentum finds a trade looks good for a day or two, but then reverses. A prudent hunter would return to the lodge.....I am willing to hunt in the rain- to my disadvantage. A smart hunter would be looking for a different preserve.

MY Trading account is Not my retirement account- It is a separate account- My trading account is the proxy for the time when I make the decision whether or not to actively manage my retirement account- Presently I am unimpressed with my abilities as a trader to position myself in the market gyrations- So, Vanguard- or a Robo account (Betterment.com) is high on the successor list. MUTUAL FUNDS are NOT on my list.

I would recommend to not be at all concerned with how you perceive anyone else's
trading - and simply evaluate your own progression against something like an Index.
This will give you a more balanced perspective of your performance/Risk - and forget what the other guy made on such and such a trade-
I will expand this on another thread.....
Regards- Thanks for posting-


Rsonal


Yeah, my trading endeavors certainly dont stack up to being long the drift for the last 6 years
And i dont really have any metric for trading performance. I need to look at that and the need for more structure, effort and discipline in how i approach this.
Seems to me as well to be a tough equity market for 2015 . I havent looked at imdividual equities much at all lately and find the switch to ETF's only (excluding aaple and a couple commodity plays) a challenge but , possibly leading to improved vision to find tradeable/investable markets somewhere at all times, possibly even short via inverse etfs.

Yeah, i saw that Yellin comment today. Reminds me laugh,laugh of when i sold Yahoo and Excite
on the very day all internets popped in the 96 never to turn back for years.


I

 

[sowterdad]

FWIW- I found that i was a better investor- blindly contributing money on a weekly basis into a diversified allocation for those years-My trading lacked due to my own personal fear and negative bias-I also viewed my trading account more as a recreational hobby-
Last year was a distinct improvement for me- despite the fact that the market's overall return was less than the prior 2 years-It was solely because i had made a personal shift-several areas- Only trade ETF's -Individual stocks carry too much RISK -IMO- I tried to shrug off the bearish bias- focus on the chart-and start to apply a faster time frame chart (2 hour) to take entry and exit signals- I also realized that with the faster chart, I would get stopped out-more often- due to a stop trailed too closely- and i finally learned to be willing to turn right back around and reenter back into the same ETF that had just stopped out.
That was a productive approach within that market environment- This market is proving itself to not be as agreeable to that method-
A lot of trading success or failure is not based on technique- I wish I could expound on this from years of trading success. Excuse my generalities- But 'We' - retail traders- are slow to adapt- and modify when we get presented with higher volatility or sector rotations- We have not established a methodology- much less done any homework in seeing how our approach worked over the past N years. A lack of specificity in our approach defines us - because it also suggests that we trade based on how we feel - or think the market will react- When we look to TA - it gives us an opportunity to provide a framework to enter and exit trades -based on criteria we can choose from. There is not a single technical method that will enable us to achieve 'success' Likely , the path to 'success' would include a good ability to adapt in changing markets- to identify when it is time to pour on the gas, and when to let off.

We also don't realize that it is OK to lose money when we make a trade- As a matter of fact, this is likely a major reason that we retail traders "feel' when we get a loss- an emotional reaction- and that is not a plus in doing business where losses are to be expected-a normal occurrence and a cost of doing this business. and the willingness to take a controlled loss is something to be seen as a necessary milestone- in adhering to a disciplined approach.
I personally think the wide & evolving spectrum of ETF's makes a great method to employ
with the reduction of Risk by holding multiple companies at one time- You cannot wake up one day and Dennis Kozlowski style- find the CEO Fiddled & partied while Rome burned- With ETF's you can be long or short a wide index- or do the same on a very narrow segment-at a very low cost- YES, the index can decline large- but never as large as a single stock in that index.
" need to look at that and the need for more structure, effort and discipline in how i approach this. "
This is a good place to start-Consider a technical approach that you feel makes sense- Time frame- Then go back in time and 'Sim" backtest - how that consistently applied approach would have fared- This is actually a lot of work- but may provide insightful information.
There is a lot more- When putting on a new approach- in a new market- Position sizing works- A trader that will try out a new approach that looks promising after backtesting- should apply a basic position sizing model when testing that approach in real time- real trades- In general - Testing a new approach or technique- start with a max of a 10% position on any trade as the max- and a 1% position size on the potential loss-
This works- Once one determines the approach is potentially viable- the test parameters can be increased- You have to realize that if you have 5 positions all in, and each position has a 10% stop-loss- Market volatility may take out all 5 positions- and the account is down 10% in a single day. If you limit your test exposure to each position is just 1/10th of the overall account- and you hold the position Risk to less than 1%- you then become more capable- because you have a metric - a measured way to evaluate your potential trade- Risk. This is a good & necessary starting point- It allows you to evaluate Technical approaches when the markets were positive, and also when they transition-
Ultimately, When you decide what your preferred time frame is , and necessary Risk -
It leads you to compare how you apply an approach with how much Risk you are putting on in any single trade- A fast time frame - quick response- more false entries, stops-
Slower time frame- wider stops are required- Ability to stay in a trade longer .
I have to note that holding a Cash position - is indeed taking a position- It is OK to not put $$$ at Risk- to not take less than opportune trades because you feel you need to be involved- . Besides selecting the individual Stock- the individual ETF - one should also evaluate the individual larger market- and don't feel compelled to have to have an active trade- (I need to work on this myself) Nothing wrong with being the more tactical trader that takes fewer shots based on a higher probability target.
I personally do not consider losses on a dollar amount- but on a % of portfolio amount-
An account decline of 4-5% should be considered potentially "normal' As we extend past that level- Let's regroup- I'm at that point in the trading account - Time to be less aggressive- more defensive

 

[sowterdad]

FWIW- I found that i was a better investor- blindly contributing money on a weekly basis into a diversified allocation for those years-My trading lacked due to my own personal fear and negative bias-I also viewed my trading account more as a recreational hobby-
Last year was a distinct improvement for me- despite the fact that the market's overall return was less than the prior 2 years-It was solely because i had made a personal shift-several areas- Only trade ETF's -Individual stocks carry too much RISK -IMO- I tried to shrug off the bearish bias- focus on the chart-and start to apply a faster time frame chart (2 hour) to take entry and exit signals- I also realized that with the faster chart, I would get stopped out-more often- due to a stop trailed too closely- and i finally learned to be willing to turn right back around and reenter back into the same ETF that had just stopped out.
That was a productive approach within that market environment- This market is proving itself to not be as agreeable to that method-
A lot of trading success or failure is not based on technique- I wish I could expound on this from years of trading success. Excuse my generalities- But 'We' - retail traders- are slow to adapt- and modify when we get presented with higher volatility or sector rotations- We have not established a methodology- much less done any homework in seeing how our approach worked over the past N years. A lack of specificity in our approach defines us - because it also suggests that we trade based on how we feel - or think the market will react- When we look to TA - it gives us an opportunity to provide a framework to enter and exit trades -based on criteria we can choose from. There is not a single technical method that will enable us to achieve 'success' Likely , the path to 'success' would include a good ability to adapt in changing markets- to identify when it is time to pour on the gas, and when to let off.

We also don't realize that it is OK to lose money when we make a trade- As a matter of fact, this is likely a major reason that we retail traders "feel' when we get a loss- an emotional reaction- and that is not a plus in doing business where losses are to be expected-a normal occurrence and a cost of doing this business. and the willingness to take a controlled loss is something to be seen as a necessary milestone- in adhering to a disciplined approach.
I personally think the wide & evolving spectrum of ETF's makes a great method to employ
with the reduction of Risk by holding multiple companies at one time- You cannot wake up one day and Dennis Kozlowski style- find the CEO Fiddled & partied while Rome burned- With ETF's you can be long or short a wide index- or do the same on a very narrow segment-at a very low cost- YES, the index can decline large- but never as large as a single stock in that index.
" need to look at that and the need for more structure, effort and discipline in how i approach this. "
This is a good place to start-Consider a technical approach that you feel makes sense- Time frame- Then go back in time and 'Sim" backtest - how that consistently applied approach would have fared- This is actually a lot of work- but may provide insightful information.
There is a lot more- When putting on a new approach- in a new market- Position sizing works- A trader that will try out a new approach that looks promising after backtesting- should apply a basic position sizing model when testing that approach in real time- real trades- In general - Testing a new approach or technique- start with a max of a 10% position on any trade as the max- and a 1% position size on the potential loss-
This works- Once one determines the approach is potentially viable- the test parameters can be increased- You have to realize that if you have 5 positions all in, and each position has a 10% stop-loss- Market volatility may take out all 5 positions- and the account is down 10% in a single day. If you limit your test exposure to each position is just 1/10th of the overall account- and you hold the position Risk to less than 1%- you then become more capable- because you have a metric - a measured way to evaluate your potential trade- Risk. This is a good & necessary starting point- It allows you to evaluate Technical approaches when the markets were positive, and also when they transition-
Ultimately, When you decide what your preferred time frame is , and necessary Risk -
It leads you to compare how you apply an approach with how much Risk you are putting on in any single trade- A fast time frame - quick response- more false entries, stops-
Slower time frame- wider stops are required- Ability to stay in a trade longer .
I have to note that holding a Cash position - is indeed taking a position- It is OK to not put $$$ at Risk- to not take less than opportune trades because you feel you need to be involved- . Besides selecting the individual Stock- the individual ETF - one should also evaluate the individual larger market- and don't feel compelled to have to have an active trade- (I need to work on this myself) Nothing wrong with being the more tactical trader that takes fewer shots based on a higher probability target.
I personally do not consider losses on a dollar amount- but on a % of portfolio amount-
An account decline of 4-5% should be considered potentially "normal' As we extend past that level- Let's regroup- I'm at that point in the trading account - Time to be less aggressive- more defensive

Europe down- US Futures looking like a down open at 6 am- Reviewed my stops on a daily chart- Most everything is sitting close to the stops-See what today brings.

 

[sowterdad]

markets looking brighter at lunch -Which of course comes with TBT & USO declining today-
The jobs report Friday sounds to be an important item for the markets .
I did catch part of an interviewer that asked if the jobs report comes in better than expected- does the market rally higher because of the good number- improving economy- or does the market choose to interpret that negatively- meaning the FED will be compelled to raise rates sooner-.......Glass half full or half empty.....

 

[sowterdad]

May 7-
Market put in a higher close today-
TBT "rolled over" -and hit my raised stop at $47.00 I was "lucky" - in that I raised the stop to reduce any potential reversal loss- but still gave it some leeway- So, a smaller loss is always the best loss-
XLB also stopped out and then rallied higher $50.21.
USO- oil went down today- Close to reaching my $19.80 stop- I could try to react and tighten the stop higher- or put in a sell order- but the stop is at a valid level- Inside the recent consolidation area that price broke out from. This could be 'retest' of the breakout- or it could go lower Friday.
In after hours, I am seeing higher gains in biotech- XBI, and Hack- that are not reflected on the closing charts-None the less- The losses in the stops being hit was not offset by the possible gains .
Net result is that my account balance has an additional decline- I certainly would like to see a 3-4 day rally, where i could trail stops back up and recapture a bit of what I have given.
This is how an Investor may feel- looking to salvage some skin.....
As far as stops- I have looked at what should be logical stops -based on lower support levels not being broken- Over the past year- such pullbacks were generally buying opportunities- But this year- and recent month - has seen a different shift -The larger volatility swings- prompted me to knowingly take on some wider stops % wise- based on the daily time frame- That has not served the purpose-though- although I am still holding long positions-However, I am running thin on patience- and optimism- I think stops set tight will either get executed on tomorrows report- or price is pleased and gaps higher-
While i hear Cramer talking up the reasons the market Could rally- It is simply a crapshoot as to which direction the market may go- I'll assume the direction will be higher-
because if the market breaks down - It feels like it's an -OMG moment-
BUT, look at where we are- where the market has come- in just the past 1 year-
Looking at the Bigger -Weekly picture- SPY - Broke out last May after several volatile months- Went from 184- to 208 or a YTD return OF 13%- That's almost 2x the Historical average.
OF course, that came with a bit of volatility- including a 10% correction last Sept-Oct.
If we should make a 10% decline - price will breach recent support-.
" The Market" has put in some substantial gains in recent years- but that also occurred with a good deal of volatility .
To put this in perspective- consider a look at the monthly chart going back a few years-
Consider that since 2011, SPY has not closed below the fast 10 monthly ema-although there were inter month penetrations along the way. Using a Monthly chart would not be appropriate for traders- and perhaps not even Investors- because by the time the month closes- a lot of damage could occur- However, present price looks dramatic on a daily chart- but not so on the monthly- If you have the longer term view, you get nervous if SPY closes under $202.00 for the month.
For Most of US on this site- A monthly chart is not something we normally might view-
But it does give a wider pesrspective.
This chart suggests we are basing sideways- near the recent high made in FEB- Perhaps all is not as Dire as it may appear...BUT, .There are still 3 weeks to go for the monthly bar to close....

 

[sowterdad]

Futures up @ 6 am- Jobs report pre market will get interpreted- but which way? GAp higher or gap down lower?
I'm not putting on any additional trades- stops are in.....Might reassess this afternoon if I get out early.