50 @ $28.50 Buy stop- limit $28.65 Stop loss $27.50 is the order I have in -GTC- We'll see if the chart indeed performs as it is suggesting it will.
long term position trading -primarily etf's-
- Thread starter sowterdad
- Start date
Break at lunch- I see this trade gapped much higher on the open- well above my buy-stop/limit-I had expected a fill as price appeared to have moved in smaller increments until today's larger gap. I will review this later in the pm
Eurusdzn,
I like your charting, and the net general concept I am vaguely familiar with- Gartman for example- would be long Gold short Euros- as his combination trade some months back-
Combination trades make sense- Find something that will rise, and the other will fall as the correlation and make a market in that trade- - and i think I saw that done regularly back when CNBC was having a Friday session on that focused on the currencies themselves. long one currency- short another. The buyers of the spread felt that they understood the inverse correlation between the two instruments and could use that to their advantage. That was a year or so ago- and was my intro to the long one position, short the other position-as a possible combination trade-
But i haven't a clue how that is ordered or executed- or perhaps even allowed within an IRA account- which is where i trade within. ...
It strikes me that this is likely the province of the more sophisticated market practioner that has a good understanding of what moves various markets and their relationships to one another- And i certainly find myself on the sidelines and only wondering about the WHY something seems to affect another area strongly during some market news event- and is ignored or not affected at other times-
GOLD would be a good example that comes to mind- At one time it was the safe haven trade for the skittish- Not so much these days.
I hate to demonstrate my absolute ignorance in this regard- but i am absolutely uninformed and ignorant as to how these types of trades are actually executed- In general, my ignorance extends to almost all of the more sophisticated ways an investor/trader can put their dollars to use- Options- futures etc.I've read about them a bit- but don't have any experience . I also often find myself wrongly interpreting the way the markets will react and How i think it 'should' react- that is lesson #1- take the individual perception out of the equation.
I would not even know how to put on such a long/short type of trade-I expect that IB would certainly be set up to accomplish this- but I am trading at the most basic levels within IB. (Interactive Brokers) I prefer the basic as i am essentially comfortable with
basic chart trend analysis-
As a simple country boy- I enjoy getting a greater understanding of that which I do not know- But i am also a slow adopter to making changes. I personally prefer something that is more tangible- a specific chart pattern in a specific direction is something I can visually "see" - I also trade only within retirement accounts- which- allow me to purchase inverse ETF's but not "short" positions- another reason to like ETF's. some other restrictions as well-
I do like your larger perspective-that you bring/ share- ( and your TMV trade was spot on-GEEZ- why didn't you mention it 1 day earlier? I could have used the 4% gain! LOL! )
Also- " Now because i can post a hindsight chart of trend does not mean i have made more than a dollar in these ideas over the past year. But , the opportunity was/is there for the betting." That's an objective chart assessment, and I would assume an honest disclaimer- That can be a rare commodity. I personally respect that- Thank You.
Please continue to share your perspective- when possible- And- if you want to take the time to expand the thinking- the process - please do so-
We all learn more when we are exposed to different ways of thinking - and Contrarian ideas- Appreciate you taking the time to share yours.!
The Gartman trade is a great example. I almost entirely want to work with etfs and inverse etfs
as i trade an IRA as well. TMV was a chart technical trade and is still open so
A trader here once advised me not to trade my or "a" narrative. You cant game this stuff at
our level. But we can follow trend if we choose to so we have a chance. I just want to spot things and act well. Sure , i beleive the fed, rates, currencies, equity markets are all connected
and i enjoy attempting to understand them better but, really this has not made me any money.
I have done a lot of testing, TA and such from and amateurs point of view so i am with you
regarding finding good patterns in trend. That is what is important . So in the future i will post
trend and how it can be put on with etfs(most of our etfs overlap) . Maybe i will open a thread
to improve my abilities to spot, and act on trends . What mostly caught my eye regarding
your thread was the focus to STAY with a proven trend to find entries. I have a bad habbit that if i am not the first mouse then i let it go and move on to something else.
I do realize how lucky it to post a single trade like TMV and have it work so no requests please.
as i trade an IRA as well. TMV was a chart technical trade and is still open so
A trader here once advised me not to trade my or "a" narrative. You cant game this stuff at
our level. But we can follow trend if we choose to so we have a chance. I just want to spot things and act well. Sure , i beleive the fed, rates, currencies, equity markets are all connected
and i enjoy attempting to understand them better but, really this has not made me any money.
I have done a lot of testing, TA and such from and amateurs point of view so i am with you
regarding finding good patterns in trend. That is what is important . So in the future i will post
trend and how it can be put on with etfs(most of our etfs overlap) . Maybe i will open a thread
to improve my abilities to spot, and act on trends . What mostly caught my eye regarding
your thread was the focus to STAY with a proven trend to find entries. I have a bad habbit that if i am not the first mouse then i let it go and move on to something else.
I do realize how lucky it to post a single trade like TMV and have it work so no requests please.
4.29.15 update-
I am getting my Ass kicked - relatively on my net trades- I am down a net 2.5% in the IB account- I know there are othes in the same boat- who are sitting there and wondering- Do I keep my position? Look at the chart- Is your trend intact/ ? If not- don't just be passive- and allow life to happen as it will do-
As i drove to work this morning- a small -young - possum- was in the 3rd lane of the 4 lane highway.....It had stopped trying to travel further , as the traffic approached. Held still in lane 3- i did not see the outcome- but it was not favorable for that situation. I would hope it made it acrossed the busy highway - but i would not rely on Hope.
I can't Buy a 10% upmove- OK, That's about as much emotional Angst I care to impart - I recently added to this account with the expectation of higher gains- and I find that i am now in a Net losing position
I am disappointed - relatively- but this is only the 1st quarter- and I have 3 more quarters to make the higher transition to outperform- Lot's of opportunity ahead to become the adaptive trader - ......
SO, other traders may find they are in a similar situation-
With the market not behaving properly- not meeting my expectations- Gollee-Gee -Whiz-
Who else might feel this way? POSSUM crossing the road? JUST hold still and Hope?
Or do you take Action?
Here is what I am doing- Right or wrong- Possum I am not-
I am tightening stops on all present positions- For most of my open positions, this will simply reduce the wider disaster stop-loss into a-lessor- and minor loss.
I think that this market demands less exposure- Take on smaller trades- become a more tactical trader- reducing losses quicker- reducing position size on entries- If the volatility swings take out the position- simply have the disciple to step aside. Don't be concerned with being proved correct.
I recognize that my trading approach depends on trends being able to be somewhat narrow in their volatility- I cannot sustain a position with a 15% downside stop-
My style of momentum investing is not working well- so I am reducing position size- and tightening stops-
This is a tactical decision- I do not have the stomach- nor the resources- to sit through a
possibly wider market decline-
I may find i can actually not have to make a trade- today- or tomorrow- and be the better for it-
With that course of action being no aggressive buy- action and a reduction in potential losers- I can go to bed somewhat relaxed this evening-
I am getting my Ass kicked - relatively on my net trades- I am down a net 2.5% in the IB account- I know there are othes in the same boat- who are sitting there and wondering- Do I keep my position? Look at the chart- Is your trend intact/ ? If not- don't just be passive- and allow life to happen as it will do-
As i drove to work this morning- a small -young - possum- was in the 3rd lane of the 4 lane highway.....It had stopped trying to travel further , as the traffic approached. Held still in lane 3- i did not see the outcome- but it was not favorable for that situation. I would hope it made it acrossed the busy highway - but i would not rely on Hope.
I can't Buy a 10% upmove- OK, That's about as much emotional Angst I care to impart - I recently added to this account with the expectation of higher gains- and I find that i am now in a Net losing position
I am disappointed - relatively- but this is only the 1st quarter- and I have 3 more quarters to make the higher transition to outperform- Lot's of opportunity ahead to become the adaptive trader - ......
SO, other traders may find they are in a similar situation-
With the market not behaving properly- not meeting my expectations- Gollee-Gee -Whiz-
Who else might feel this way? POSSUM crossing the road? JUST hold still and Hope?
Or do you take Action?
Here is what I am doing- Right or wrong- Possum I am not-
I am tightening stops on all present positions- For most of my open positions, this will simply reduce the wider disaster stop-loss into a-lessor- and minor loss.
I think that this market demands less exposure- Take on smaller trades- become a more tactical trader- reducing losses quicker- reducing position size on entries- If the volatility swings take out the position- simply have the disciple to step aside. Don't be concerned with being proved correct.
I recognize that my trading approach depends on trends being able to be somewhat narrow in their volatility- I cannot sustain a position with a 15% downside stop-
My style of momentum investing is not working well- so I am reducing position size- and tightening stops-
This is a tactical decision- I do not have the stomach- nor the resources- to sit through a
possibly wider market decline-
I may find i can actually not have to make a trade- today- or tomorrow- and be the better for it-
With that course of action being no aggressive buy- action and a reduction in potential losers- I can go to bed somewhat relaxed this evening-
This is a fast moving, uncertain, and insecure market. Since we do not have the stomach- nor the resources- to sit through a possibly wider market decline, we need to sell into strength whenever it is possible, even the profit is small. It is not easy to trade with small fund. Once we accumulate enough small profits, we could hold it longer for bigger profits, still the market has to be stable. At present take a rest, work in the garden, and recharge. Best wishes to you and all of us.
YES! You were certainly correct - This is an unstable market- and relentless at that-
Looks like I have gone away here as May is just a day or two away!
I had my remaining 4 long positions all stop out today- all for losses. EEM, EDC, HACK, TAN
I am now down over -3.5 % from my added funding level- But, that's not worth sniveling about-
This is indeed a bull market that is overly long in the tooth- and perhaps we should consider that this is the new normal for a period of time- Or, The Fed may jump up and provide some reassuring statement to massage the market-
The opportunity may come that we indeed reset some overpriced stocks- Some of the stocks that have disappointed are getting absolutely trashed- dropping 25% on a miss-
AAPL is a large part of the market cap of tech- it's selling off , FB is selling off, TWTR- $52- 38; Biotech still in decline breaking the prior swing low; PJP-Pharma as well. LNKD gave back $58.00 to settle in near $200.
Europe - HEDJ dropped lower- EVEN GLD closed lower-
Perhaps ths is the time to consider what would be your favorite -would like to own- positions- and put in a Limit Buy with a 25% discount.? Or more?
I recall market periods where the market would go up 300 pts one day, down 400 the next-and back down - all within 1 week-
[
I think Trend following is a key place to start- Don't feel that because one misses a good entry, the trade potential is over- Trends often develop persistance- that exceed a trader's narrower focus of shorter term profits.
Ultimate success is not finding a winning or a losing trade- but how one manages each-
because we all can pick a winning trade-on occaision... or find ourselves in a losing trade.
If one sells all quickly on a winning trade for a 5% gain- and allows a losing trade to drop 8% - The odds do not look favorable for long term success.
One does not have to look elsewheres if one misses the initial 1st higher move- That is a mindset of a value buyer- who has to get it on the cheap- When momentum is in your favor- Paying a bit more is often the better purchase- Just does not seem to apply to today's markets. LOL!
Feel free to continue to share your ideas /input here if you choose for discussion- I enjoy the process of learning - although I am comfortable with that which I know and understand - but don't feel that you now have to deliver All winning trade ideas-
( I am in the RED in the trading account YTD. -3.25% )
The exchange of ideas does not mean one is a good trader because one idea seems to work- or vice-versa- What counts- is ultimately the outcome of numerous trades- over a period of time. and how that trade(s) was managed.
You hold a different perspective from US based traders- I think that different perspective itself is valuable- and I would encourage you to share your perspective- should you choose- It's not about picking the next good trade- TMV- It's the exchange of ideas - ultimately the market decides what is relevant or not. Should you elect to start your own thread-Kudos- Please post the link here-
If you want to kick the idea of a trade/ETF - I find it a learning process for myself to
consider different inputs- so feel free to share - judgement zone is in purgatory here so far as I can tell.
Thanks for posting- Sorry that my schedule limits my timing to respond
Swift,
My good friend- You are correct - I think this is a very insolvent market and the less exposure one has, the better- .
Reducing one's exposure to loss is a good tactical tool- Recognition that the environment is no longer positive for longer term trades- makes one a tactical trader-
I think holders of some individual stocks woke up today to find they are down much more than they anticipated.
Allow me to mention- again- that one is taking an inordinate amount of Risk when one holds a specific stock in a specific sector-
A good example today would be LNKD- down some 20% after hours - While the ETF Socl dropped some 3% .
With all my positions stopping out today- I may take a breather- or with Friday off- I may take on a smaller spec trade-
But your conservative voice should be heeded.
Did i mention- "Go Away in May"? is just 2 days away? LOL!
I totally agree- Prudent traders are parked with their hands under butts- unable to make reaction trades- Wait until the signs of a trend developing are in play....
Thanks for posting!
I did cotinue with an abandoned thread of mine in the ETF section thread. I would simply like to post some chronology of price action of some etfs. You are welcome to post as well.
By the way i am still open in TMV but using a weekly chart and am willing to let it play out here on a daily basis. I am fan of Renko charts as well but find the lower winning percentage and patience required an issue. Renko does help with "let the big money turn the market"
but easier said than done. Thanks.
By the way i am still open in TMV but using a weekly chart and am willing to let it play out here on a daily basis. I am fan of Renko charts as well but find the lower winning percentage and patience required an issue. Renko does help with "let the big money turn the market"
but easier said than done. Thanks.