long term position trading -primarily etf's-

sowterdad said:
setting up the XIV trade for Friday.
XIV has been penetrating the $ $28.00 level.
I will add to my position if XIV hits my buy-stop entry $28.10 - limit $28.25.
My original entry is $27.82.
More...
The xiv position filled coming out of the gate and then turned, and the total position stopped out for a quick loss shortly after 1 pm today . I had tightened the stop-loss level- and had expected we would get a good jobs report- So, it made sense to add to this trade- and the direction headed out correctly, but turned mid day- European concerns. Go Figure.
So, it sounds as though the jobs report was positive and strong, prompting the expectation that the FED would view this strength- and thus the financials got a boost.
At the close, I purchased a starting position in XLF- not the leveraged UYG- I'm thinking the leveraged position is good for trending markets- but it also works in both directions- With the XLF, I can set a stop that risks less than UYG, perhaps withstand some minor volatility and hold the position while the markets digest the possibility of the Fed speak at the end of the month and where rates will go.
The FCG trade has continued higher - and I doubled the position at the close now that I am clear on the initial entry and net profitable.
I went back into the EUO trade today as well . Partial position. Today's bounce was dictated by concerns over Greece. I will use the previous 2 day lows as the swing low.
Of course, this could turn back 180 degrees after "talks" over this weekend.
I sold IBB today in the trading account- still holding it "outside' of this account. I kept PJP. PHP has moved up to a new high , While IBB has been under pressure because of talks that some pharmacy's will be taking action to cut billings for products made by GILD.
I took a small loss from my entry on this sell today, but I think it will potentially go lower-particularly if the US markets get more volatile..My intent is to repurchase in this market segment.
And I continue to hear about on line security as an ongoing problem- HACK stalled today with the market.

Outside of the trading account:

This week was the market's "best" week of this year-trying to get back some gains.
IN the IRA account- - which is all mutual funds- I elected to sell the growth funds- holding
a larger bond position.
This decision to sell was a reaction to a number of factors- The fear factor, the pissed off- market is too choppy-the desire to lock in gains ahead of what appears to be a limited market opportunity in the weeks ahead. Likely got this wrong-
I may ease back in partially-in the interim- but the end goal is to transfer this account out of the present brokerage house and limited mutual funds.


Mutual funds only sell at the close, have higher expenses, stops cannot be employed- The end goal will be to transfer this account over to a Vanguard Brokerage-IRA . I simply haven't taken any steps to do so. Obviously, the brokerage firm that manages our company's investments will not like the assets being withdrawn and losing out on the management fees.....
Coincidentally enough- even as I write this, Cramer is espousing using the low cost S&P index fund- with the low fees- for those who don't want to try to pick stocks. He didn't mention Vanguard-specifically. I think a better -and more diversified approach is through the Vanguard Target Date Funds-- No expense ratio to pay, no commission to invest in,
and automatically rebalanced. AND- Vanguard allows a target date account to be opened for just $1,000.00 .
Have work this weekend- Will try to get some charts up at some point
 
XLE- I'M still holding XLE outside of the IB account-but it ties into the FCG trade as well.
it was a decent entry into the XLE , and price is profitable, and approaching the declining trend line and prior swing high level- both could present resistance, & profittaking by those employing technical analysis- On a TA level- targeting a partial limit sell just under $81 for 1/3 or 1/2 of the position, and bringing the stop up below the swing back to $78 filling the gap makes sense to try to allow this to develop into a longer term hold. I don't want to be exactly at the gap level, but slightly below- In this case, the 20 ema level gives a bit of space below, but still retains a trailing profit from the entry.
XLE 2015.2.6..PNG
 
xiv- I had a position fill Thursday going into the close- I elected to add to the account on Friday with a buy-stop-limit order- which filled at the open as price moved higher- on the positive jobs report. Sentiment turned, and xiv declined- both positions exited at the same stop $26.90 for a losing trade.
I ventured into trying to trade the volatility swing vs the SPY or SSO-and I need to perhaps focus on the SPY /SSO/SDS type of trade and gain some consistency there.
xiv 2015-2-6.JPG
 
ADDED TO FCG AT THE 2.6.15 CLOSE
Price was holding up, added to the position. Looking for it to move higher before it turns lower. stop-loss will be raised tighter on the entire position to reduce the loss on this latest entry add, and to lock in gain on the 1st entry. Goal is to see the trade go higher, sell a portion, and trail the remainder. Setting an aggressive stop too close like this increases the likelihood of getiing caught on minor volatility. The entire question surrounding the energy trades in general- is - "has energy already reached a bottom, or is there another leg lower?"
No one knows the answer- some predictions are that OIL will continue lower- If that's the case, it will likely drag down XLE and FCG. In the event that price breaks lower from the Friday entry, I am "averaging" this multi-entry position with a stop-loss that makes it a wash- essentially- no profit- no loss- BUT, I expect the trade to move higher- test the prior highs, and give me the opportunity to sell a portion higher, and hold the remainder for a larger net gain. The last time we had a high volume weekly move higher in December, price then fell 25% lower. So, it doesn't matter how much something may appear oversold, the market makes that determination for us-
FCG 2015.2.6.JPG
FCG WEEKLY 2015.2.6.JPG
 
2.8.15 SUNDAY-- THE XLF TRADE. Charts, trend line-
I bought an entry position -45 shares- of XLF at the close.
Listening to the news and talking heads, you get conflicting information- again- it's about what the FED is or is Not going to do, where rates will go etc. Some thinks Banks will benefit as rates rise- others think banks will struggle due to regulation, lower oil, declining global economies affecting the big international banks.
This BUY came as price has made a higher turn from the recent decline-
To put this in better perspective, I dropped back to a multi year weekly chart-
Chartists and straight line advocates could take issue with the lines I draw, meaning of- etc.
I certainly don't think chart lines are some "absolute' unto themselves- They are useful though - as any reference line - to review price action and it's relationship to that line.
I have spent many hours doing layout with a transit, and a minor error- in close, becomes progressively wider and more significant an error. I cannot give any line on a chart any more meaning than how it relates to help me reference price action. That Said:I think there is value in recognizing that other traders do employ such lines for trading decisions- support/resistance etc- and if that is indeed the case- Traders will respond to that information- If everyone throws up FIB lines on their charts- IT becomes relevant, instead of coincidental. Like a lot of things in TA- you See validity in what you seek - a way to learn and exercise a measure of "control' over what can seem randomness on a day to day basis.

In the weekly chart attached, I have included a single 30 ema -as just a random choice for the chart not entwined in up and down price action. It's significance is that the ema smoothes price - Again- some traders attach great significance to specific round number emas- 50, 100. 150, 200- "Death cross" etc... You find what you seek- and if other traders are seeking the same thing- they will find it with you.
In this chart , following the decline in 2012, price drops well below the 30 ema putting in a swing low, then rallies, and has a pullback with a higher swing low. The higher swing low touches the 30 intraweek, but moves higher. Support- or coincidence? I would say coincidence,-price reached a sell-off point where buyers step back in at that price level- perhaps based on the NEWS that week- Regardless- This gives 2 points for a trend line extension. Notice that price moves higher- well away from the trend line and the 30 ema for over a year, until coming back in later 2014 with what turned out to be a surprisingly lowered volatility , respecting that trend line extension. In later JULY 2014, price breaks and closes below the trend line, touching the declining 30 ema at that time.
That same trend line now appears to be the top trend resistance -supply -line- where shares get sold.
This may be sheer coincidence- but undoubtedly other traders have noticed this occurrence- and position themselves to react accordingly- What is troublesome about the past 6 months is how price has easily dropped below the ema, and the more recent decline
below the moving average, suggests a serious decline in price momentum.
This week's bullish upmove from the lows brings price back above the 30 ema.
What caused this higher price bullish looking move? It had nothing to do with the trend line, the ema line- It was all about the NEWS and the potential FED action. Price reacted to an external influence- Does it have any substance? Or is it just a passing moment in the wind? .
The weekly chart would suggest I employ a stop under $23.00- perhaps $22.90
With a $24.14 entry that would Risk $1.24 or 5% on the trade. That is not a 'Bad' Risk-
and since this is a partial entry - the risk is $56.00 or .5% portfolio Risk -
By most standards, that is certainly an acceptable narrow Risk- and it would provide a logical disaster stop for this trade, unlikely to be reached on a price gap down Monday should it occur-
Cold i improve on that stop-loss without getting taken out by a too tight stop volatility swing? Let's look at a fast chart and see what the expectation is and whether a lower loss stop is perhaps justified and necessary?
xlf 3 year weekly 2015.2.6..JPG
XLF 2 HR 2015.2.6..JPG
 
Worked late, surprise- no positions sold off today! All were down -but slightly-
The little bit I'm catching on the DVR- Gartman suggesting short the EURO- go long gold against the Euro. Glancing at the GLD- selling off the last few weeks- and today's close was still under the gap level. I'd rather consider GLD only if it moved higher 120.50+ -moot point as cash is not cleared yet. IBB did drop a bit lower- down to 314.00 Chart wise $308 looks likely- but why think so limited? Why not the $290.00 level?
If the events in Europe become more unsettled- Why do we think the US markets will be immune? Or not drop 10-20% on concerns over declining OIl, strong dollar, global inflation, lack of growth, continued slowing in China, Europe breaking it's EURO cooperative.
OR- Is the US market indeed the safe haven that world dollars will continue to come to- to buy our stocks, bonds, Tbills?
In my recent memory, it had been Europe,, then it was the semi-annual budget deficit and lack of agreement to extend the budget and go into a fiscal crisis- all politically engineered- and the various data points - China slowing- world growth engine slowing-currency devaluations- Budget concerns-huge deficit- Active Fed watch- political landscape-
"market climbs a wall of worry" -
What IF- you turned on the financial channel- and there was no big headline in the news that moved the markets one way or another that day- or that week? What If you turn OFF the financial channel - and become uninformed as to what piece of speculation moved the market that day? Just looked at charts..... No external information to give a bias....
Just some end of day thoughts.......
 
2.10.15
HMM, I have taken my own advice- DVR was filled up- got in late- see a market that tried to move up 1%. 1/2 of my FCG position got stopped out $10.89 just under my averaged cost of entry-I raised the remaining stop now to this same level- price has moved higher after the swing low that caught my stop.
EUO, PJP ,XLF trying to move higher- PJP is pushing the recent high- EUO is tight-
XLF had a pullback-slight up move- but the recent pullback that filled the gap, and today's higher move- says that the stop should be $23.85. Cost $24.14 Risk is now $.29 or 1.2%.
No time for charts- unfortunate, because taking the time to post a chart also helps to gain a perspective on the trade that a passing glance may not provide. Also, I think falling back and keeping the larger time frame perspective/trend lines etc is beneficial.
Just not enough free hours so far this week to do much of that yet-
Just to mention- similarities in TLT and the bond fund i have track similarly-
TLT has been dropping the past week- For holders of bond funds that have had a nice rally recently- Note that TLT gave up 20% between mid 2012 -2014.
The recent upmove was a momentum move, and the return to the mean appears to be similar- on the weekly chart. If TLT drops and closes below $129.00- the prior swing low- I'd wonder what is next. and WHY? I'm going to reduce the AMHIX bond position on this continued weakness.
 
2.11.2015
WELL CRAP! cAN i SAY "CRAP' without offending anyone?
The remaining portion of FCG hit my stop today and sold at $10.90.
PJP held up, EUO held up- XLF held up Where's the Beef?

Grinding hamburg and the scraps are getting dropped bit by bit.
Chart wise- The Ultra SPY- SSO - potentially trying to move higher- Can it break higher?
Test the recent high? Worth a trade?
I'll try a buy-stop $130.20- limit $130.35 - with a stop at $126.00. This requires it overcomes today's bullish spike that failed to hold the move. C'mon - let's give it a chance- low risk .

Perhaps for the best- the work schedule has kept me relatively uninformed of what the heck is holding this market back! We're heading into Valentine's day- and the Spouse
won't understand my whining because my most recent trade did not do well-
Btw....Pressure is on guys!
Going Long the Jewelry store! Got to show some appreciation for the One that puts up with the back of my head - opposite the computer screen most of these evenings!

Nice move higher AAPL- So that pulled the qqq's higher while the rest remained flat. ? ??
HACK has moved higher- Good to see- With the News every other day about some break in someone's website- or data breach- how can this sector not be appreciated? FEYE seems to be a specific stock mentioned on the news - but I'm focused on diluting the Risk through the ETF. FEYE is trading well below 50% of it's recent high. The ETF dilutes the upside as well as the individual stock risk.

Unless the management of the ETF fails to adapt to changing markets- Why will Internet security not become an increasing concern and stocks focused there not be rewarded?
Not a large position- but it seems a targeted tech play that may have a long term trend .
I really have not done any extensive homework on how this ETF is set up - I like the idea of this theme - but the structure of the ETF will be the prime ingredient in it's long term success. Worth looking into IMO.
 
Friday- 2.13.2015
The SSO trade was gapped over yesterday- I went ahead and raised the limit and was filled $132.07 , market closing at a new high today.
I added to the xlf position $24.46
I thought i had a 3rd order in for TQQQ- possibly it was a day order- not filled- But TQQQ moved smartly higher.
HACK has moved sharply- US Gov't involved in a Cyber conference.
Energy moved higher- XLE is up, FCG (No longer a position) also moving higher.
Oddly enough- BRKB closed lower. That is troublesome when the markets rally and a position fails to follow suit.
PJP made a new high
CURE is trying to move higher, but struggling. I think it tracks IBB . Although I had sold IBB, I do hold a small position in CURE.
EUO stopped out yesterday.
I Didn't forget-Tomorrow is Valentine's day- Although I got out of work early, I had to make a stop to take care of the more important stuff-Anniversary after all....stop by the jewelry store- . and didn't get to make any trades at the close. Not a problem......
Keep the primary focus! If Mama aint happy- Nobody's happy!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top