long term position trading -primarily etf's-

[sowterdad]

Today started off- I had put in a buy-stop on Dog, and FCG last night. Both partial positions dividing the remaining freed cash in the Trading account- I got the 1st e-mail notice that DOG had filled on my buy-stop -limit- @ $23.82- Only 40 shares unfortunately. The FCG trade never touched it's higher buy-stop, and retraced lower with XLE - I notice that USO made a new low as well.
Today, I sold XIV $29.20 for a $1 loss on my entry.
Sold XLE @ $75.00- If my chicken scratch is correct- my entry was $75.24- not as large a loss.
BRKB broke down sharply without a pause through prior minor support that I had posted-closing the day at the very bottom. Ugly- Separate account but a loss none-the-less.
Apparently the FED speak spooked the market, as I'm replaying Fast Money @ 9 pm, but the panel had a mixed interpretation of what was the take-a-way.

I hold very mixed feelings on the healthcare/biotech positions-I hold the Opinion- that the demand for the drugs and therapies developed from the companies in this sector will not go away- There may be future regulation & legislation in the healthcare industry that would put a hold on profitability-But I have to believe the demand for continued development will not abate . All of us aging "Boomers' want to keep the repair process going so we collect every dime we contributed to Social Security-with Interest.
Both have pulled back to my entry costs- even a bit lower in PJP- I also have a small CURE position. They haven't closed below the daily ema -yet- but have the 2 hour-and in the prior year, that earlier low close under the ema would cause me to raise the stop-loss to protect the trade- and most of the times- that was the right thing to do. and that lead to a more successful trading year-. It would be frustrating to set a tight stop to protect my entry , only to find it retraces 2-3% and rallies higher. My decision is- in the trading account- I will seek to reduce losses on signs of weakness- I may be more flexible in the Investment account-
PJP- $67 is below the prior swing low- It was a stop I had originally set- and it makes sense.
IBB- the last swing low suggests a $307-$305 - so volatile- Let's see what the market tosses up Thursday- i do not expect a big sell-off day in this sector- unless the market panics overall-
Is this the pullback that so many have predicted for so long?????
Volatility can bring wider swings- and fast reversals- in the other direction- and then back again in your favor- Fed Speak, market gets it wrong, decides all is OK 3 days later-
We've been there, done that-
Cramer blames that on HFT's ......He might have a point.
There is a 'shift' as we enter areas of increased volatility and market nervousness-
Perhaps EUO is a good example of this- It was a very extended momentum trade, and had 2 prior days of decline- I thought that odd based on the market "news" It rallied higher today- and i had given it a bit more room- I had a very late entry recognizing the trade was extended when I entered. Now that I have had a retracement and a move higher-
this retracement provides me a swing low to set a stop by that makes "sense" $24.00 it is.

I think being Short the financial sector makes sense - SKF lot's of exposure to declining energy companies. The Dollar- The Fed flat......But I don't have a position there- I will
add to the DOG position Thursday with a buy-stop $24.10 -stop $23.50 and see if this
gets any further traction. There seems to be fundamental reasons why this 30 stock sector may have headwinds.

wELL, i GOT THAT WRONG!
I was filled at $9:47 am as the DOG trade jumped higher out of the gate and activated my buy-stop order waiting for an upmove. It was a good fill based on the order-activation price was $23.80- filled $23.82- limit $23.95. I got an e-mail this am that the order had filled- and I figured I had got it right- and was somewhat concerned because of my other long focused positions.
As this 30 minute chart will show, DOG was a good entry for an hour and a half- and then the market tide turned bullish-
What turned the tide? I haven't heard yet as I kick in the DVR-
DOG and EUO showed declines, offset by IBB & PJP for a net $0 day essentially.Still down net $200.00- or -2.5% +/-
What is aggravating is that everything that stopped out the other day, has rebounded today. Despite today's up move- XIV is still well below my sell, but XLE sell @ $75 is close to being reached todayon the bounce higher.

There is something to be said for capitol preservation in this kind of market volatility-
Cash is indeed a position- and forcing trades because one has a long -or short -bias is likely only viable if one is watching price in real time- I indeed hope the market get's it's footing, as I am overall bullish with my positions-
On a side note- BRKB had dropped lower, tried to rally, but is held at that $146.50 minor support- now resistance. My thoughts on BRKB- if the market declines further- BRKB has a minor support $138.00 level- and better support @ 128.00.

Seasonality suggests that the market weakens near May- So, we seem to be not in cycle- Reminds me of the past years when we had volatility due to the US Gov't allowing the budget/debt to go unratified- political football.

Here's a 30 minute chart of what appears will be my Losing trade in DOG.

 

[sowterdad]

the EUO trade-
What happens when you get to the party way late? All the good stuff has been drank up-
I think this may have further upside eventually, but the immediate momentum has gone in the other direction. This will be another losing trade .

 

[sowterdad]

wELL, i GOT THAT WRONG!
I was filled at $9:47 am as the DOG trade jumped higher out of the gate and activated my buy-stop order waiting for an upmove. It was a good fill based on the order-activation price was $23.80- filled $23.82- limit $23.95. I got an e-mail this am that the order had filled- and I figured I had got it right- and was somewhat concerned because of my other long focused positions.
As this 30 minute chart will show, DOG was a good entry for an hour and a half- and then the market tide turned bullish-
What turned the tide? I haven't heard yet as I kick in the DVR-
DOG and EUO showed declines, offset by IBB & PJP for a net $0 day essentially.Still down net $200.00- or -2.5% +/-
What is aggravating is that everything that stopped out the other day, has rebounded today. Despite today's up move- XIV is still well below my sell, but XLE sell @ $75 is close to being reached todayon the bounce higher.

There is something to be said for capitol preservation in this kind of market volatility-

Cash is indeed a position- and forcing trades because one has a long -or short -bias is likely only viable if one is watching price in real time- I indeed hope the market get's it's footing, as I am overall bullish with my positions-
On a side note- BRKB had dropped lower, tried to rally, but is held at that $146.50 minor support- now resistance. My thoughts on BRKB- if the market declines further- BRKB has a minor support $138.00 level- and better support @ 128.00.

Seasonality suggests that the market weakens near May- So, we seem to be not in cycle- Reminds me of the past years when we had volatility due to the US Gov't allowing the budget/debt to go unratified- political football.

Here's a 30 minute chart of what appears will be my Losing trade in DOG.
View attachment 148812

i'M PLEASED THAT THE TRADE DID NOT TAKE OUT MY RAISED STOPS TODAY.
The Market giveth , and the Market Taketh!
The market indexes all closed down today over -1% across the boards-
This chop-chop- up one day and down the next volatility will tear up a trader's account-
In the Trading account, my bearish positions gained today, while my bullish healthcare and Biotech didn't lose as much as the rest of the market- Kind of Schizophrenic market up and down behavior-, Good time to sit on the sidelines- and preserve capitol to capture moves another day in a trending market-
As a defensive move, I tightened both stops to the higher level for today, since I've had 2 retacements to this lower level. In the Investment account, i have reduced my US market exposure, and Increased my European exposure today. Oddly enough, Europe is rising while the US is down3%. and- priced cheaper /PE. .In the Investment account, the US position is declining, while the Europe & new economy funds are gaining- This is truly a global market- Holding only a US Centric focus is like holding a patch over one eye during an optical exam.
In trading, I think we are drawn to what we know- are accustomed to. The familiarity is
comfortable. and illusionary. It is what it is only as long as it does what it usually does-
I am a creature of habit and find safety in what I perceive to be consistency .
This market is now not very consistent- Therefore- it is not trustworthy to what we have been accustomed to - and is much more a tactical trader's market-
As Investors- there has been a mild decline - 3%- Not so bad - I'm reallocating out of US Centric focused funds- and giving extra allocations to the Europe & new economy sectors- as price multiples are cheaper.
I think BRKB- is a good canary in the cage to get a sense of fundamental American Value investing- Likely reflects the $SPX as well.
If Fundamental America is under pressure- it won't be long that the outlying won't also return to the median. Is fundamental America overpriced? It is indeed a world economy.
I think that goes along with the expression :
"No Man is an Island Unto himself" - I don't know where that originates- perhaps biblical-
but it makes me wonder why the US of A =- 6 years in a bull- should still be the market that everyone turns to- Why- due to our Fed manipulation- is the US market able to continue on - and there is questions and concerns that the other world 'Fed' economies can't manipulare rates to also pump up a 6 year bullish run in their economies?
let me get back on track and not go off topic too far-

The DOG trade chart- I expected this choppy schizo market to take me out today-
and i had raised stops yesterday pm to reduce my expected loss.
Surprisingly, the trade rallied higher and closed near the prior high.
Offsetting this trade was the decline in the healthcare/biotech sectors-
about break-even.

 

[sowterdad]

didn't upload the chart-
Trying again.

 

[sowterdad]

2.2.15
Energy found reason to rally today- USO moved higher- markets also closed higher-
My biotech positions didn't rally-with the market- I find that troublesome.....
The EUO trade weakened. While the currency may be a sell, The stocks may continue to be a better buy than the US stocks-at least on a valuation basis. I'm lightening up % wise on US exposure in the investment account- proportionately overweight Europe & "new Economy" funds.
Still holding DOG- close to hitting the stops.
Got filled on a buy-stop order I set last week with FCG- Small entry position -Buy-stop to enter if price exceeded the recent swing high. That occurred today going into the close.
Will the recent swing low represent the bottom? There is no way to make that determination- just that presently the momentum appears to be moving up today.
I will have to rely on the recent swing low as a wide stop while in this trade-. and if it behaves.......

 

[sowterdad]

2.3.2015- Go Figure- the market rallies as Oil moves higher-!Outside of the trading account, XLE moved up nicely
The FCG trade popped 6% - always nice to focus on a winning trade- but I was also aggressively short with DOG & EUO- although I had tightened stops to just under the recent swings-
Both of those positions were taken out for losses today, and the FCG position was not large enough to offset those losses. PJP- the Pharma gained a bit , but IBB declined- I expect on the issues with GILD pricing on the Hep C....... But don't know why that holds back the entire sector?
It is disturbing when the market puts in a large rally across the boards and a position you own does not go along with the flow higher-
AAPL- not a position - holds at resistance- What does this mean for QQQ?
Financials- XLF tried to bounce higher today. Have things really improved for the Financials?
Just hearing tonight -CNBC Guest- a comparisom of S & P companies earnings ; US beat 58%, International companies beat 78% -

BRKB Finally moved higher today! It broke below the recent "support' - and that's a tell on the health of the value investor's view of the US market.

I am going to put in buy-stop orders- PJP to Buy $70.80, limit $71.00 stop $69.00.
It's trying to make the upturn-
XIV- The chart tells the story- We have a few days of rallies, and then it declines lower-
I think this is a possible trade- but I don't believe we are at a major market turn higher-Just my BIAS-
So, The idea here is a Buystop entry $27.8- - limit $28.10 with a stop at $26.50, and a limit sell $29.38.-or a 5% trailing stop.....
pjp- I want to see it move higher- Buy-stop limit- $71.00-$71.25 stop-loss $69.00

 

[sowterdad]

I'm getting multiple small cuts- with the end result being the account is losing value in this whipsaw market. a big rally yesterday, followed by a sell day today- Greece news is once again moving this market. The XIV trade opened higher and flipped around lower mid day on "NEWS" . The energy trade rallied higher and then sells off the very next day (still a position) FCG- stop raised to lock in a gain.
At this point, I will Cry UNCLE - I am down $400.00/$9,600 over numerous trades-or -4% +/- while the SPY is now just down -1%. This one day move up, followed by a decline , then up- is not tradable for me. I have to capture trending moves on a fast time frame chart, with price allowing me to raise a stop above the entry within a few days-.

I just don't have confidence that this market is willing to move meaningfully higher-
That is my FEAR side speaking- Since my method of trading had some success last year, but does not seem to be "working' this year- the difference is that the market has gotten choppier and more whipsaw types of moves.
I have allowed the IBB and PJP positions to decline- because these were positions I "believe in" for the long term- As certainly as I set a tight stop, these will rally higher?
Well-perhaps not- but that is the fear . IBB just dropped into negative territory and PJP just closed below my entry today-.
In this account, it is about the method- and the selection- so I will set stops based on this ongoing weakness and not allow price to become a significant loser.
I will set IBB@ $307.00 PJP $67.50.

Unfortunately, when the price drops below the uptrending ema, it can often drop much wider intraday during volatile markets- causing that early sell and price rebounding. There will be investors/traders that have learned that pullbacks are minor 7-10% occurrences and to be largely ignored. The market always comes back and fills the bag for those that are patient enough- some would believe- That's a minor consolation in a bull market- Tide is moving higher.
We no longer are in a trending market. I don't think I will miss a huge bull market rally in the next couple of days- As things get stopped out, I'll pull back into the shell with smaller trades, smaller Risk.

 

[sowterdad]

I have been reducing my investment exposure to equities in the investment account-
Holding a larger Bond position. This is likely simply an extension of the discomfort i feel with the present market volatility- But, I had to ask myself- What is the upside potential vs the downside potential- and it occurs to me that the upside in US markets will be fighting the strong dollar, increased competition. Additionally, The Euro-pacific trade has been an out performer - and it may be that this Investment sector gets volatile as the politics increases.
Will I miss out on the big impending Rally that drives the market higher?
Probably-
Will I sleep more soundly with less volatile positions? Certainly.

Will I be able to "Invest" on a longer time frame chart ? That is to be determined.

 

[sowterdad]

Thanks Market-2.05.2015 a rally day!
Stops weren't hit- market sectors gained 1-1.5%- my positions gained 2 -3.5%. Another day like today and i may get optimistic- but looking to get 2-3 days in a row upside move may be asking alot.
Jobs report pending premarket tomorrow! This could be a market mover in either direction.
Sell orders on the investment side captured today's upside close at the EOD closing prices. Nice gain in the Euro-pacific . May ease back into this theme- If things get worked out in Europe- potentially, it could get a large surge of Investor enthusiasm if earnings there are indeed undervalued relative to US pricings. US still has the strong dollar headwinds.
Chart wise- PJP moved up 3.75% making a new multi-year high. IBB was up from it's pullback, but not breaking out. FCG closed higher for the week- xiv as well-
We have the market closing higher across all sectors- following a choppy week of mixed signals- I think this suggests go long- expect follow through Friday.

I like the HACK theme- some 80 million people got their information- accounts "Hacked" this week through a major healthcare supplier- President Obama was on last week with cyber concerns- Home depot, Target, The US Gov't- There is substance here that this may be worth a small position (held outside of the trading account)
XLE is still holding it's recent upmove- but OIL (USO) may go lower-
The FCG trade moved back up- and i will continue to hold with the stop protecting my entry. IS the XLE Way oversold? What is one's time frame?
This is something that a short term trading focus has issues with- Do I hold a position for the longer term- because it is historically way oversold......

I heard from a friend that trades somewhat differently than I do- and he occaisionally challenges and provides a different perspective- and I respect that different perspective that he is willing to share-
He noticed i am getting chewed up with this up and down volatility- and as i responded to his comments; I had to evaluate and 'justify' - more to myself than to him- the WHY I will succeed in this method, despite the short term decline-
My faster chart method is based on capturing trending moves , and cutting losing trades quickly. it also requires considering a tighter stop-loss as part of the entry. Simply put- If i take 3 losing trades that each lose 1.5%- I am down 4.5% If the 4th trade captures the move I expect- I exceed the loss of the losing trades- In essence- this is trading- but with less RISK than the swing trader that gives a 7% stop and hopes the trade goes in his direction. My method requires a tighter stop- but also a willingness to
recognize that I need to step back up to the batter's plate and take another swing -despite striking out 2 x in the last inning. I gave the IBB and PJP positions greater leeway than normal- just my bias and belief there.....

In this type of market, The NEWS RULES!
Tomorrow it will be the JOBS REPORT- IF you were positioned on the correct side of the trade today-and held overnight- when the jobs report comes out tomorrow, you will see a pop in your direction-ONLY IF- the Jobs report is interpreted as a positive.
This market is somewhat akin to taking a trip to Las Vegas- rolling black or white on the Roulette wheel. It reacts to each and every morsel of information, and the 'market' interpretation.
Let's not forget what happens in Europe- That's back in the headlines and causes a market reaction.

I will expect a positive jobs report- and will add to the XIV trade- I think it moves a bit more than the leveraged SPY-
And hopefully I get out of work before the close.

As an after-note- In the investment account I significantly increased my cash position-
Sold assets at the close today- increased the cash position.
I do not care for the inability to have stop-losses, to only sell at the market close, and a number of other issues- including Costs associated with holding actively managed mutual funds. My thinking is that John Bogle has it right- LOW cost ETF investing through Vanguard.com is the smart Investor's pathway.
Over the course of this 2015 year, I intend to remove the majority of the Investment IRA account out of the hands of the management broker (Edward Jones) that has me locked into his actively managed (American Funds) and transfer that account to a lower cost Vanguard Brokerage account, focusing on passive funds with their lower expense ratio, lower transaction costs, no 12-b-1 fees, and no extra commission and tax liabilities.
IF YOU- The passing Reader of this thread- have Investment dollars through your employer-and then they assign a broker that guides your account-into a select focused account of where you can allocate your investment contributions- WAKE UP- SMELL THE ROSES! you may want to research what your actual costs to you are in that account-
In the last 1-2 years, I have been learning what seemed to be a relatively low active management expense actually amounts to in my retirement account-
This is a learning curve- but it amounts to a significant expense and lower returns for the Investor to simply allow your retirement assets to be charged for an active management that does not yield a higher return from a passive portfolio.
So- reaching out to those that have trading accounts and separate retirement accounts-
It is worth your while to check out the difference in costs and overall expenses between Vanguard and your positions. Vanguard.com.
iF YOUR EXPENSE RATIO was actually costing you 20-30% of your return vs passive funds- would that make a difference in getting your attention?
That is likely a low figure- Wake up- Guys or Gals- Check out John Bogle on you tube-

Back to this thread- Short term trading for me works if I can allow the short term trade the chance to get past my cost of entry- and then move higher- This is what i will try to accomplish in this year.

 

[sowterdad]

setting up the XIV trade for Friday.
XIV has been penetrating the $ $28.00 level.
I will add to my position if XIV hits my buy-stop entry $28.10 - limit $28.25.
My original entry is $27.82.