long term position trading -primarily etf's-

[sowterdad]

SSO WEEKLY LOOK BACK-
Just for extremes- I am looking at a 3 year weekly chart of SSO- plugged in a very fast 3 ema along with a 30- The 3 hugs price very tightly- At first, I wanted to compare the % move above the 30 ema to see what the gaps % are in average- as a indicator of measuring momentum- One could likely just as easily and more accurately use a momentum oscillator (macd) to judge those same levels .....
I haven't bothered with doing the math yet on those swings- I noticed that price action was really well behaved in about 1/2 of the swings- That when a Bar closes red below the EMA, it is followed by a decline lower approx 50% of the time-- Except in some other periods where there was a closing red bar 2 or 3 times before a decline ensued- - OK perhaps not the greatest indicator - but one not necessarily discarded just because....
A price action indication was when a closing bar closed higher than the downtrending bar- This actually looks to be statistically relevant- in that following a price downturn, a higher reversal bar did a great job of signaling a potential trend reversal- What is also noticeable- is that in most cases of the reversal bar- is that while following price penetrates back into that bar- I don't think any bars closed below the reversal bar until after a close under the fast ema and resulting decline lower.
There was an early failure in section B -
This initial assessment could be worth exploring further-to see if it indeed has as high a % indication for gain as I think it appears- For now the 1st weekly chart.
Further homework to be done on this new position.

 

[sowterdad]

lOOKING BACK over this same chart, and following through with a bit of chart "backtest" of the raise a stop on a red bar close under the ema, reenter after a bullish bar closes higher above the downtrending bar, & above the ema- This approach underperformed the Buy and Hold approach by approx 50%.
I think it is important that one has a plan for an exit stop if the trade- or investment goes against you-
Getting to the point where one does not depend on intuition - or Bias to - make trade decisions- TA would appear to give one a method(s) that could be applied-
Although this is a weekly chart, it could also be a daily chart- or any other time frame-If one's goal is to stay in a position for an extended period, but have a plan for a stop to be raised- based on a drop in momentum or a potential downturn- As a starting point- I selected a weekly bar that closes below a moving average as a "signal" that a stop will be placed under the "low of the bar-. This 'rule' could be modified in any manner one chooses- this is just for study purposes. We can't have a stop without an entry-
For a MOMENT- Let's assume the entry signal bar low will be the initial stop. or perhaps the prior low- to be determined.
It would appear that price penetrates -intrabar- the moving average often and is a "normal" occurrence- Therefore, I may not want to have a stop that is actively just trailing price closely because it may get hit easily. I will nominate the bar that closes at- or below the ema as a signal of potential trend change is possibly occurring- I then choose a stop- perhaps to the low of that bar- perhaps the close of the bar- perhaps allow a ATR % value below the close? Here- I choose the low of the closing signal bar as the stop.
I now have a "Rule" to respond to a weakening of price- without simply selling-
Getting taken out by the stop requires a follow up reentry on a reversal bar-
The stop provides a margin of safety- and locks in gains- It works well - As IN A & B when price continues to decline and then offers an entry signal at a lower price- This is the Opportunity one has when applying this method- One can purchase more shares for less money. Unfortunately, this method seriously underperforms the Buy and Hold- in this study.
The whipsaw- getting stopped out and then having to reenter at a higher cost appears to be a large part of the issue.
How can the trading rule be modified to get a better gain?
What if we drop down to a faster time frame to get an earlier entry signal? That will come with it's own additional "what if" issues- but it's worth exploring.
Since this is a weekly chart for the stop signal-
let's consider the daily chart and what ways it could benefit on a reentry.
My premise here is also that if it was a daily chart with a daily bar being a signal, perhaps a reentry on a 2 hour- or 1 hour chart would be worth a look. ( this is how i tend to view charts /trades now-but i want to explore this more rigorously-) I was going to try to learn to do an automated backtest when I realized I simply had a method I preferred with a lot of discretion- and a 'Bull Mkt' to make it seem valid.

In the SSO chart- I'll ignore A & B where the strategy works- and go to the F period for a further look down in time-on a daily chart

 

[sowterdad]

lOOKING BACK over this same chart, and following through with a bit of chart "backtest" of the raise a stop on a red bar close under the ema, reenter after a bullish bar closes higher above the downtrending bar, & above the ema- This approach underperformed the Buy and Hold approach by approx 50%.
I think it is important that one has a plan for an exit stop if the trade- or investment goes against you-
Getting to the point where one does not depend on intuition - or Bias to - make trade decisions- TA would appear to give one a method(s) that could be applied-
Although this is a weekly chart, it could also be a daily chart- or any other time frame-If one's goal is to stay in a position for an extended period, but have a plan for a stop to be raised- based on a drop in momentum or a potential downturn- As a starting point- I selected a weekly bar that closes below a moving average as a "signal" that a stop will be placed under the "low of the bar-. This 'rule' could be modified in any manner one chooses- this is just for study purposes. We can't have a stop without an entry-
For a MOMENT- Let's assume the entry signal bar low will be the initial stop. or perhaps the prior low- to be determined.
It would appear that price penetrates -intrabar- the moving average often and is a "normal" occurrence- Therefore, I may not want to have a stop that is actively just trailing price closely because it may get hit easily. I will nominate the bar that closes at- or below the ema as a signal of potential trend change is possibly occurring- I then choose a stop- perhaps to the low of that bar- perhaps the close of the bar- perhaps allow a ATR % value below the close? Here- I choose the low of the closing signal bar as the stop.
I now have a "Rule" to respond to a weakening of price- without simply selling-
Getting taken out by the stop requires a follow up reentry on a reversal bar-
The stop provides a margin of safety- and locks in gains- It works well - As IN A & B when price continues to decline and then offers an entry signal at a lower price- This is the Opportunity one has when applying this method- One can purchase more shares for less money. Unfortunately, this method seriously underperforms the Buy and Hold- in this study.
The whipsaw- getting stopped out and then having to reenter at a higher cost appears to be a large part of the issue.
How can the trading rule be modified to get a better gain?
What if we drop down to a faster time frame to get an earlier entry signal? That will come with it's own additional "what if" issues- but it's worth exploring.
Since this is a weekly chart for the stop signal-
let's consider the daily chart and what ways it could benefit on a reentry.
My premise here is also that if it was a daily chart with a daily bar being a signal, perhaps a reentry on a 2 hour- or 1 hour chart would be worth a look. ( this is how i tend to view charts /trades now-but i want to explore this more rigorously-) I was going to try to learn to do an automated backtest when I realized I simply had a method I preferred with a lot of discretion- and a 'Bull Mkt' to make it seem valid.

In the SSO chart- I'll ignore A & B where the strategy works- and go to the F period for a further look down in time-on a daily chart
View attachment 147204

In this closer look at the past year- F & G periods- there were 4 declines and reentries based on the "rule". the reentries did not make gains - all lost compared to the prior sell stop execution.
What is also obvious from the chart, is that a more astute discretionary trader would have likely entered all of these trades well ahead of the rule entry. by entering earlier- the discretionary trader lowers his Risk to his stop ratio compared to the higher delayed entry.
The goal here is not to improve my skills at discretionary trading though- so a closer analysis for a reentry on a faster time frame- is next on the agenda.

 

[sowterdad]

In this closer look at the past year- F & G periods- there were 4 declines and reentries based on the "rule". the reentries did not make gains - all lost compared to the prior sell stop execution.
What is also obvious from the chart, is that a more astute discretionary trader would have likely entered all of these trades well ahead of the rule entry. by entering earlier- the discretionary trader lowers his Risk to his stop ratio compared to the higher delayed entry.
The goal here is not to improve my skills at discretionary trading though- so a closer analysis for a reentry on a faster time frame- is next on the agenda.
View attachment 147205

CHART WILL BE PERIOD E COMPARING SIGNALS ON THE WEEKLY to using a similar reentry signal on the daily, with a close above the ema. This is also using the 5 ema in this example on the daily as the signal line- but it could be anything one selects- The closer the signal line is to price- the more likely a false signal will occur-a whipsaw entry; the more removed the signal line is, the slower in getting that earlier entry bar confirmation, and the further from the price swing low.
This chart is interesting- had an almost signal as price declined- The buy-stop rule for entry would have had an order above that price high- as opposed to a market Buy order- Not getting sucked into a bull trap perhaps means being less aggressive in the downturns, and more aggressive on the confirmed upturns?
Will not always work- And one could start off with a partial position and add.....
In the uptrend in December, price was orderly and well behaved- The close below the ema on the daily indeed signaled the pause in momentum.
The uptrend move in Feb had momentum, and numerous penetrations intraday of the ema, but stayed intact.
I like the initial improvement in results with this daily method vs the weekly. Less Risk, earlier entry
For me, this is also why I tend to try to also refer to the 2 hr vs simply using only the daily & weekly.
It gives a quicker- view- but also comes with greater potential for getting chopped up, or exiting a winning position too soon.
It's about finding that balance.......
I recognize that some traders don't use moving averages at all- but I find them an asset-
for example- If I have a guideline that says 'Wait' in a trending market for declining price to
confirm a reversal by a close above the ema- it would keep me- or caution me- to not step into that late Jan when price was trying to get a reversal going- It came close-

 

[sowterdad]

CHART WILL BE PERIOD E COMPARING SIGNALS ON THE WEEKLY to using a similar reentry signal on the daily, with a close above the ema. This is also using the 5 ema in this example on the daily as the signal line- but it could be anything one selects- The closer the signal line is to price- the more likely a false signal will occur-a whipsaw entry; the more removed the signal line is, the slower in getting that earlier entry bar confirmation, and the further from the price swing low.
This chart is interesting- had an almost signal as price declined- The buy-stop rule for entry would have had an order above that price high- as opposed to a market Buy order- Not getting sucked into a bull trap perhaps means being less aggressive in the downturns, and more aggressive on the confirmed upturns?
Will not always work- And one could start off with a partial position and add.....
In the uptrend in December, price was orderly and well behaved- The close below the ema on the daily indeed signaled the pause in momentum.
The uptrend move in Feb had momentum, and numerous penetrations intraday of the ema, but stayed intact.
I like the initial improvement in results with this daily method vs the weekly. Less Risk, earlier entry
For me, this is also why I tend to try to also refer to the 2 hr vs simply using only the daily & weekly.
It gives a quicker- view- but also comes with greater potential for getting chopped up, or exiting a winning position too soon.
It's about finding that balance.......
I recognize that some traders don't use moving averages at all- but I find them an asset-
for example- If I have a guideline that says 'Wait' in a trending market for declining price to
confirm a reversal by a close above the ema- it would keep me- or caution me- to not step into that late Jan when price was trying to get a reversal going- It came close-




View attachment 147206

pERIOD F -SSO
SHARP DROP ON THE WEEKLY SIGNAL-RIGHT AFTER MAKING A NEW HIGH
The daily reentry gives a single valid earlier entry signal- there was also no "almost 'signals suggesting a potential for a whipsaw entry. The conventional stop below the entry signal bar would have been fine as well. There was a retracement the day following the entry- filled the gap. the retracement bar did not close below the fast daily ema - IF it had closed below the ema, that would be reason to perhaps raise the stop from below the signal bar to below the low of the retracement bar- particularly on just taking the position?
Something to consider in further trades.

 

[sowterdad]

pERIOD F -SSO
SHARP DROP ON THE WEEKLY SIGNAL-RIGHT AFTER MAKING A NEW HIGH
The daily reentry gives a single valid earlier entry signal- there was also no "almost 'signals suggesting a potential for a whipsaw entry. The conventional stop below the entry signal bar would have been fine as well. There was a retracement the day following the entry- filled the gap. the retracement bar did not close below the fast daily ema - IF it had closed below the ema, that would be reason to perhaps raise the stop from below the signal bar to below the low of the retracement bar- particularly on just taking the position?
Something to consider in further trades.
View attachment 147211

PERIOD G:
What is noticed here is that price did not smoothly decline lower under the descending ema after the weekly stop was hit.
There was a whipsaw entry, that stopped out the next day- then , there was a very large bullish engulfing candlestick, that also met the entry signal criteria- a buy-stop order above the high of the signal candle was not touched and price declined further.
As indicated by the other examples, the signal bar at the end of the trend provided a smooth entry above.

It might be useful to view the daily on the other price breakdown periods as well to see if they are similar to chart E & F or more like G with whipsaws.
In terms of getting back in earlier for more gains, the daily chart certainly does that well compared to the weekly.
Also worth noting- look at the strength of the reversal trends on the daily from these larger sell areas-
For example in this G chart- price moved up and did not have a single closing bar under the daily ema for over a month and a half- And then price stepped higher yet. That's impressive, and - if typical of the other major pullback moves- would bear paying attention to during the next retracement.

This feels like the outline of a method is taking shape with some supporting examples- I grant that 3 examples does not a method make - but it's a starting point to explore further.

 

[sowterdad]

I was stopped out today on 2 positions-
My very recent entry in TQQQ $103.78 stopped out today -fill $99.99 for a 3.7% loss on the position, and about .4% against the port value. TQQQ was a leveraged trade on the qqq's.
The stop was set based on the recent swing low pullback that extended into a sideways consolidation.
The entry was based on an up move within the consolidation- looked promising at the time- but it dropped back and continued sideways....
My stop-loss was adjusted this weekend- on all positions- It feels like we're long in this up move-But that's just Bias getting in the way of rationale.
My stop was below the low of the swing low. Additionally, I adjusted the stop below a whole number to
$ 99.90. yesterday pm. On an initial entry, I want to reduce the loss should the trade go against me- as this one has.
Also stopping out was TDIV- also in the Tech sector- but a dividend focused ETF. I have a nice gain in TDIV, owning it from $ $25.59 off the prior sell-off. sold @ $27.99 net $2.4 or + 9% gain. Not bad for a dividend investment in 6 weeks. Also I was fully invested in a full position size $2500.00 so it
earned it's keep.

I also again purchased 3 shares of UVXY $18.59 as a tracking position.

Let's talk about the raised stop being hit-
Well, my assumption is that a trade will go in my direction-
I entered on a higher move off a basing -consolidation- and the move did not gain any traction- Price fell back into the consolidation sideways. I could have chose the 'safer' but higher entry above the declining psar value- but, the market has been all about keeping momentum moving..... The candlestick chart with the PSAR value is adamant- and stays above the entire price range. Not that it is always correct- but in this case it did not support an entry to be taken.
Note that The early entry is closer to the point of failure- thus a lower Risk trade.- Paraphrasing Farley- who learned from L Rashke (sp?) The very best trade is that taken closest to the point of failure- simply means that a trade taken at the extreme swing- gets the most gain- or has the least amount to lose -
This has taken me a long time to wrap my head around- and it's hard to break some ingrained patterns of thinking in trading. IMO- This is actually a very significant concept to understand- and then to figure out how to apply. Let me use my losing trade as an example.
My defined Risk on the TQQQ entry is below the bottom of the consolidation range- This is a standard TA principle- I see some "support" at a bottom in a sideways consolidation.
While i hate to be 'wrong' the Risk was a very modest hit to the port value of less than 1/2% - The actual trade lost 3.7% OK, I don't feel bad about this controlled lost.

I bought on a price breakout of the consolidation range that looked bullish at the time- Meaning i was buying at the high of the recent price action. The prior bar had dropped back to the 30 ema- which had been hit previously- and from where price had bounced higher each time-
Why did i not have a buy-stop waiting at the 30 ema $102.00?
I would have still used the same stop-loss level - just under $100.00 But my entry there would have risked about 1/2 of what the next bar entry gave me as it bounced higher- Yes, I was looking for confirmation to have the trade go in my direction- but I recognized when i took the trade that my desire to be early- was also potentially late- there were a lot of other traders perhaps waiting to do the same thing at that level,
and no one was left to take my entry shares higher. Thus price dropped back into the middle ground of exchange.

Had I recognized the consolidation- as having a bottom range, and a top range- A Buy long near the bottom is in the trade before all the breakout traders get on board when price moves higher-
A buy near the bottom also loses less when it is wrong- it is that much closer to the defined point where support has failed.

This aggressive style makes for many more failed entries and exits- but if the losses are much more close to the point of failure, the Risk of each individual trade is small and the hit to the port total account is relatively minor- Let's say a swing trader enters and chooses -O'Neil- for example- a 7% loss and then exit- He has 1 chance to have that 7% loss hit- only to see the trade reverse in his direction- Psychologically, if you get slapped with a 7% loss, it might be hard to jump right back in again and buy higher and risk another 7% . It doesn't take too many of those hits to be really discouraged.

Let's assume I was willing to set a tighter stop- say 5% - but it fills wider and I take 2 losing trades and am down 10-14% on the position- Trade #3 comes along - and i know i don't want to be down 20% with another losing trade-. '3 strikes you're out' type of thinking-

What if- instead of risking 5% on each trade- the Risk was just 1 or 2% ? Instead of 3 trades Risking 20% - Perhaps 10 trades Risk 20% - This is where I am at presently in my trading approach-
I want to lose less- more often- to get to that winning trade- instead of taking 3 swings at bat- I want 6 swings- and to lose less in the process. At the same time, I want to be willing to build on winning trades- and this means adding to the positions if they go in my favor- or cutting position size on weakness or locking in gains-

I think all of the recent chart look backs on the weekly charts brought home the point how much one has to lose on the wider time frame before one reacts. I have to balance this with the desire to stay in a trending position with a shorter term chart- Daily- 2 hr. etc..

As i review the recent SSO position- it has broken the recent consolidation range and is retesting the prior swing low. $128.00 I have a stop at $127.00- I expect this will be hit and price will decline further-
This is my Bias- but- I'm trying to not trade based on my Bias- just on the chart- and give price a small amount of leeway to act in my direction.
View attachment 147243

 

[sowterdad]

I was stopped out today on 2 positions-
My very recent entry in TQQQ $103.78 stopped out today -fill $99.99 for a 3.7% loss on the position, and about .4% against the port value. TQQQ was a leveraged trade on the qqq's.
The stop was set based on the recent swing low pullback that extended into a sideways consolidation.
The entry was based on an up move within the consolidation- looked promising at the time- but it dropped back and continued sideways....
My stop-loss was adjusted this weekend- on all positions- It feels like we're long in this up move-But that's just Bias getting in the way of rationale.
My stop was below the low of the swing low. Additionally, I adjusted the stop below a whole number to
$ 99.90. yesterday pm. On an initial entry, I want to reduce the loss should the trade go against me- as this one has.
Also stopping out was TDIV- also in the Tech sector- but a dividend focused ETF. I have a nice gain in TDIV, owning it from $ $25.59 off the prior sell-off. sold @ $27.99 net $2.4 or + 9% gain. Not bad for a dividend investment in 6 weeks. Also I was fully invested in a full position size $2500.00 so it
earned it's keep.

I also again purchased 3 shares of UVXY $18.59 as a tracking position.

Let's talk about the raised stop being hit-
Well, my assumption is that a trade will go in my direction-
I entered on a higher move off a basing -consolidation- and the move did not gain any traction- Price fell back into the consolidation sideways. I could have chose the 'safer' but higher entry above the declining psar value- but, the market has been all about keeping momentum moving..... The candlestick chart with the PSAR value is adamant- and stays above the entire price range. Not that it is always correct- but in this case it did not support an entry to be taken.
Note that The early entry is closer to the point of failure- thus a lower Risk trade.- Paraphrasing Farley- who learned from L Rashke (sp?) The very best trade is that taken closest to the point of failure- simply means that a trade taken at the extreme swing- gets the most gain- or has the least amount to lose -
This has taken me a long time to wrap my head around- and it's hard to break some ingrained patterns of thinking in trading. IMO- This is actually a very significant concept to understand- and then to figure out how to apply. Let me use my losing trade as an example.
My defined Risk on the TQQQ entry is below the bottom of the consolidation range- This is a standard TA principle- I see some "support" at a bottom in a sideways consolidation.
While i hate to be 'wrong' the Risk was a very modest hit to the port value of less than 1/2% - The actual trade lost 3.7% OK, I don't feel bad about this controlled lost.

I bought on a price breakout of the consolidation range that looked bullish at the time- Meaning i was buying at the high of the recent price action. The prior bar had dropped back to the 30 ema- which had been hit previously- and from where price had bounced higher each time-
Why did i not have a buy-stop waiting at the 30 ema $102.00?
I would have still used the same stop-loss level - just under $100.00 But my entry there would have risked about 1/2 of what the next bar entry gave me as it bounced higher- Yes, I was looking for confirmation to have the trade go in my direction- but I recognized when i took the trade that my desire to be early- was also potentially late- there were a lot of other traders perhaps waiting to do the same thing at that level,
and no one was left to take my entry shares higher. Thus price dropped back into the middle ground of exchange.

Had I recognized the consolidation- as having a bottom range, and a top range- A Buy long near the bottom is in the trade before all the breakout traders get on board when price moves higher-
A buy near the bottom also loses less when it is wrong- it is that much closer to the defined point where support has failed.

This aggressive style makes for many more failed entries and exits- but if the losses are much more close to the point of failure, the Risk of each individual trade is small and the hit to the port total account is relatively minor- Let's say a swing trader enters and chooses -O'Neil- for example- a 7% loss and then exit- He has 1 chance to have that 7% loss hit- only to see the trade reverse in his direction- Psychologically, if you get slapped with a 7% loss, it might be hard to jump right back in again and buy higher and risk another 7% . It doesn't take too many of those hits to be really discouraged.

Let's assume I was willing to set a tighter stop- say 5% - but it fills wider and I take 2 losing trades and am down 10-14% on the position- Trade #3 comes along - and i know i don't want to be down 20% with another losing trade-. '3 strikes you're out' type of thinking-

What if- instead of risking 5% on each trade- the Risk was just 1 or 2% ? Instead of 3 trades Risking 20% - Perhaps 10 trades Risk 20% - This is where I am at presently in my trading approach-
I want to lose less- more often- to get to that winning trade- instead of taking 3 swings at bat- I want 6 swings- and to lose less in the process. At the same time, I want to be willing to build on winning trades- and this means adding to the positions if they go in my favor- or cutting position size on weakness or locking in gains-

I think all of the recent chart look backs on the weekly charts brought home the point how much one has to lose on the wider time frame before one reacts. I have to balance this with the desire to stay in a trending position with a shorter term chart- Daily- 2 hr. etc..

As i review the recent SSO position- it has broken the recent consolidation range and is retesting the prior swing low. $128.00 I have a stop at $127.00- I expect this will be hit and price will decline further-
This is my Bias- but- I'm trying to not trade based on my Bias- just on the chart- and give price a small amount of leeway to act in my direction.
View attachment 147243

Trying to get both charts:
a candlestick- and a Renko

 

[sowterdad]

Well, on the bright side I am freeing up cash-perhaps cutting some potential losses on the downside due to stops being hit on these recent entries- Today SSO sold at the open- It actually sold $1 lower than my 127 stop- at my stop limit.126.00 fill-126.01 also the gap lower open.
130.91 entry- 126.01 sell- loss of $4.90 / 130.91 = -3.75%
Cure oddly enough went higher yesterday, but indeed dropped lower with the market today.
SPLV also made a new high in the am yesterday, but closed in the consolidation are.
SPY &QQQ closed lower yesterday and gapped lower today, but tried to climb back .
DTN- not in this trading account - also dropped with a gap down $.20 below my stop-to activate- so I will also have some opportunity there- But only if price declines further-

The fact that prices tried to come back higher today- but are at the low side of what appeared to be a 2+ week consolidation is troubling - as to WHY-? What prompted price to sell-off and gapdown? What caused the wider volatility move today? It has to be institutional sell-orders qued up to lock in some profits?
And the gap is because there was not enough waiting buy orders to fill the sell demand.?

There is an interesting pattern in charts- Where a sideways consolidation suddenly gets a push lower- I usually assumed this was a market manipulation to take out the closer under support stops- and buy those shares at a discount- and then price promptly rebounds higher and breaks through the top of the consolidation as part of a new up trend. Or you could say it's not manipulation, it's just that sellers gave out, Buyers just got excited and decided to buy at the price drop- and then got into a buying frenzy- pushing price higher- It's a pattern worth watching should it develop - and a breakout above a consolidation on such a pattern should be worth an entry- as it should have momentum on it's side-

Since there is a 3 day turna round on getting cash freed-There is time to see what develops- Frankly, I'm not sure what the forces are that will drive this market substantially higher- Perhaps we just had the Christmas rally in the past 6 weeks- Reportedly hedge funds are behind and part of this market's recent up move -as they are playing "catch-up" ?

If one considers 'seasonality' and looks back over the past 3-4 years- consolidations during this period have often been followed with a resumption of the trend- It does not occur cleanly-however. 2011, 2012 both saw declines in November- followed by upmoves- One of the market sayings- Is that the market in Jan predicts the trend for the market for the year- 2011 was up, but the market ended lower- 2012,2013, and it looks like 2014- all will have a higher market finish for the year- But there have been periods of decline in December before a new trend develops and moves higher. So it seems there are no absolutes to trade upon- just historical sayings that may -or may not - prove true.

From this pullback, I would want to see price close above the prior range high- or give me some decline and reason to think that the trend goes back up. I don't feel it's a time to be too anxious about missing out on an explosive upside move- This may be a good 'test' of my attempt to apply a faster chart for entry/exits.

 

[sowterdad]

I put in some sell orders in the investment account yesterday pm, reducing some positions- Since they are mutual funds in that account- they only execute at the market close and not intraday-- I will be putting in additional orders today to further reduce some of those positions- but not wholesale selling all-
I had intended to raise stops this am on my 2 remaining positions- CURE & SPLV- but I had some connection issues, and ran out of time to try to get the computer issues resolved and left for work-
Both of my intended stops would have been hit today- Now, my recourse is to set a stop at today's close and see what occurs Thursday-
As i review my Cure position- my average cost has increased as i sold a portion, repurchased higher as price moved up- and my average present position cost is $112.11- no longer $90.+ - I feel that it is likely that CURE could easily come back to this higher level.
Cure has become a larger position , and today's decline in Cure pulled the port value down over 1% .
I will set the stop for the entire position (17 shares). In the event we are fortunate enough to have a rally tomorrow, I will likely raise the stop trailing price higher.
The caution here is that this appears to be a market wide weakness - and it could give another great reentry opportunity on a sharp profit taking decline should one occur. If we simply drop into a sideways chop-
That's a harder market condition to identify as it develops and reverses, and reverses, .....
If some cash clears tomorrow - I perhaps would consider a small short position- because I think there may be more reason that the market goes into a sell mode than a buy mode in the near term. I also would be cautious entering into a long position - I think this is perhaps a good time to use partial positions and see what develops. The present goal - is preserving some of the profits- thinking about more tactical entries.