I did not make any decisions this am and did not even catch the premarket futures at 6am-
Got in this evening to find that my sole remaining position- FCG - a Nat Gas play gained 8% above it's close yesterday. about 6% above my entry-
A real negative about leveraged trades- is understanding what they are tracking- As unsophisticated as i am as to how these things work- I naively expect that if a Nat Gas focused fund like FCG can base and rally, the larger Nat gas market should be doing likewise-
UGAZ seems to be the 3x for UNG- Tracks comparatively the similar moves. FCG is not leveraged- but seems to be the more beneficial way to get in a bounce on the energy sector compared to UNG- I don't know if this holds true over the longer term- but with an energy rally underway today on oversold conditions-
I'd rather see the type of move made in FCG over the past few days- than in UNG_ which may be based on spot price ?
I find that i am not in touch with today's market rally- I see it on the charts after hours- and that all too symetrical Doji at 2 pm across diverse sectors- SSO, Cure- etc- Is this rally program trading or something
with substance? I'll sleep on today's action and see if i can catch some indication in the am .
My Bias is to the fear side - and i am skeptical - Trying to not sit placidly on the sidelines if a market rally ensues- but what is the driver?
Update-
I have totally missed the big market rally this week- I lost computer access at home, got tied up with work- no computer access during the market hours- Only after 2 hours late this pm with the internet service provider- and then HP Tech support to re configure my internet drivers to allow access- for an additional fee- was i back on line- after the market closed for the week-
The intent was to have been prepared to enter back in the Investment account- and to go long CURE and SSO. Instead of sniveling about the woulda=coulda- shoulda-
Something can be learned from this-about preparation
I didn't have a plan B- Losing access at the home is one issue- To have my laptop get
corrupted at the same time - even during the work day- if forced, I can find my way to an active wi-fi- spot during lunch. I also didn't know the FED was going to speak or pass out positive guidance-Some days the work day runs long- and i get in well after hours, after news. Can't make excuses though-
Missing the rally after having ample opportunity to reinvest when I had sold higher- supports the investment brokers thesis that market timers leave late and miss the rallies-
I didn't leave the positions late-per se- but i failed to get back in when I would have-
I lost the tactical advantage .
Having things break down when unanticipated- is rare- but "normal" - When does something break when you expect it?
True story about market excess- I remember one winter- Circa 2000 or so-Tech bubble- I had just started trading some with an online broker- but still had a fair amount of assets with a local broker- I had gone online on a momentum trade in the day in the trading account, and called my broker to also buy the same stock as it rocketed higher during the day. I didn't tell my broker anything about putting a stop-loss with the trade-
Even my mother had a position in the stock, and i moved a trailing stop up for her during the day periodically adjusting higher- Near the end of the day, the stock hit $54, Mom stopped out at $48 and i kept my position open overnight expecting this to be the next big thing-
One of the lead stories on CNBC that night was the little hyped up stock that had such a huge intraday move- and callers in were saying it was a fraud- I cringed- and immediately put a mkt sell order on my online account- but it was after hours and i could not contact my broker-
The ice storm that night took out my power lines- I navigated the ice covered roads the next am and was sitting at my broker's office about 5 miles away hoping he would have power- He did, and when he arrived I told him how important it was he put in a market sell
before the market opened. He did, and i was fortunate to actually get out with -perhaps- a small profit-as i recall-
That combination of events is rare- will likely not be duplicated again in my lifetime-
Internet bubble stock/ ice storm/ penny stock type of huge rise and huge decline within 24 hours. The learning experience should be that one should plan for the unexpected .
Perhaps something worth considering? A trailing stop-loss attached to every trade- possibly with a limit ( in the event of a flash crash spike down) A flash crash might activate the stop as a market sell but the fill may be 20% below the stop - not ever expected. but it can happen.- and perhaps a trailing buy-stop to get a fill on a market reversal.
For now, the missed opportunity has occurred- I felt very frustrated when I learned of the large market Rally this week following some FED talk- I should have known- I should have been prepared.....I shoulda- woulda-
But, the simple reality is, I have not lost any monies- I simply did not get the greater profits i could have been positioned for.
Going forward- I think it is important that I try to be informed-At least spend an hour in the pm to get a summary of what caused the day's events- what forces are at work.
Understand what positions/sectors are moving in and out of favor-
Because the larger market sets the overall tone- What does it mean for the sectors i am interested in?
I'm still holding FCG- my only position in the gas industry-
I don't know if anyone that might be reading this thread has a position in the energy area-
but look at the very large disparity in the directional move of FCG vs UNG or UGAZ-
FCG continues to gain while the latter gap down lower and decline.
In the world of ETF's -or ETN's - different forces are at work. As one drills down, into narrowed sectors, it is likely worth while to understand how the performance actually compares against the sector .
Choosing FCG long vs UNG was a technical decision- Oversold Energy industry- looking for an oversold bounce- In fairness, I have traded FCG in the past and felt that it traded better long vs UNG- There are likely sound reasons for that if one does the homework.
I was willing to step into an energy trade because of the oversold condition- However- I could have chosen UNG as a Nat gas play instead of FCG- both refer to Nat gas.
In this case, i made the better choice- Perhaps just by luck- UNG made the upturn ahead of FCG- but broke down, while FCG trended higher- It suggests to me that the 2 will come back towards one another in the near future- so- a raised stop is prudent.
Present trade is an 11% gain in a few days- Sweet- wish I had done that across the entire portfolio- It was a minor 2/3 position- or about 10% of the port value-
I will take a moment to give myself a bit of credit- I did time the initial shift of the market well, and took some quick short trades- which offset the declines in the values of the long positions. I think I would have been sitting pretty today had i gotten the opportunity to make the long entry- regardless of that missed opportunity- the account value is mostly cash within 1% of my recent high. Since i did not get much participation in the upside- but i had seen a 2-3% port value decline as the market turned- The short trades added a few % back.
The same is not true in the investment account where i had no options to take short trades....
The goal in this thread is to pursue a strategy that uses TA to improve the net results within a specific Investment. As investors get further along in life- they may not seek to get market returns and Risk- of 20-30% . But, If one can apply TA to a "safe" investment- like a bond fund- and also manage to not simply hold through declines- but to sell and reposition for a greater gain- why not? I'm not very well structured to speak to the investment side- as I am mostly focused on the trading account - but the end goal has similarities-
I made a decision this afternoon- while still on tech support and trying to upgrade Anti-virus software- that I was not going to concern myself with what had transpired the past few days- Damn- that feels good to be ab le to sit here tonight- at the end of the week, and to not be concerned about what i missed out on the past few days.
I'm trying to acquire that skillset - and it is an acquired skill- that one can not just react to the immediate stimulus. Daily or hourly chart- Maybe- Maybe Not.
When i started this thread, I thought IF- I COULD DEFINE MY TRADING APPROACH- I could just make this thing automatic- Do X & y ON b CROSS- BUY OR SELL-
I realized i did not have a truly defined technical approach- so, I continue -
to learn, to analyze, to discover- to try to retain my profits- to step up my game, to get more focused and to allow winning trades room , and cut those losers and kick them to the curb-.
2015 will be a challenge. Going shopping this weekend- Consumed with other demands- it is easy to lose sight of what is important in one's life- One's life should not be determined by external demands.
If you- the reader here- have not done so- go shopping friend! Someone will appreciate it and that counts more than anything found on these threads!
