Long term only [2019+]

masterm1ne

masterm1ne

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I've been posting here now for almost 10 years. Short term trading has always been a mixed for me; for years I have had really good months, followed by months of losing or just breaking even. Anyway, I am of the opinion that short term day trading can only really be done by HFT, scammers such as Ross Cameron, or someone with their own algorithm. Either way, I am not in IT... maybe I'll develop my own program someday, but till then I plan on discussing my few long term ideas here. As years have taught me, I'm all about preserving money and managing risk and being very selective in my trades. Good long term trades come around once in a blue moon.

I have about 200k in cash and am a full time student working on my doctorate which is paid for. I also have a pension so I don't need money to live. I really need to buy property...
 
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For long term trades, I consider support, resistance and trend lines on weekly, daily and 15-30-1h charts. Futures and COT are very helpful for the commodity ETFs and indices. I think buying when the market is declining is what big boys do. Recently, I have had my eye on silver, oil and the indices.

Sadly I was looking at SLV around 14.25 and just watched it as it rose to 16. Futures are currently showing solid resistance so I'm not interested anymore. See the sell off that happened today!

I managed to buy into USO at the bottom, just noticing the hard support at 10.50ish. Futures had support at 50. I have scaled out of most of it after several green days. I took a small position of 400 shares, buying on the way down. I made a measly few hundred dollars from it...

I bought into IWM this morning as well and scalped out. I really don't like buying things when they are going up...
 

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PHD without an MBA lacks the business expertise required to translate higher mathematics into a full time quantitive alpha position and his or her cv may simply be dismissed.
 
Yup... the statistics say I would generate about 350k for a physician yes, so with independent state practice and a few more hours I could probably get to 250k or more.
 
masterm1ne said:
Yup... the statistics say I would generate about 350k for a physician yes, so with independent state practice and a few more hours I could probably get to 250k or more.
More...

then just buy and hold qqq at 12.5% annual return you multi-million in no time.... IWM is waste of time..
 
if you make $200k, you are a $4m bond yielding 5%... by getting to $300k your face value goes to $6m, the easiest $2m you make so far in your investment career...

some point down the road when you have $10m, then you will have an easier $2m as that will just be a 20% return...

nothing to it... you are sitting on a gold mine.
 
I was still apparently day trading stocks up until March this year and losing money. My account dipped below 25k for the PTD.

Anyway, I had some sort of trading epiphany... after a long break earlier this year, I changed my strategy to something I never thought to do in the 10+ years I been watching markets; I accumulate shares based on S/R/TLs, (normally no more than 100) on days the stock is down and then sell on strong days. I don't really use stops. I guess I would just exit if "enough" support was broken. Although if you are only holding a few shares and the stock drops hard you can just wait. This allows for a lot of flexibility, and not necessarily taking losses. From my years day trading, small losses just accumulate and obliterate your account. Seems like short term pattern analysis is pretty worthless unless you have a hyper computer. I'm going to focus on long only and use mostly daily and hour bars. Benefits of long term are much less stressful, you are less concerned about watching every twist and turn, and you can manage the account while working full time.

My best trade these last few months was buying and holding USO. I planned on holding for as long as it took and was relieved my pos was split instead of liquidated. I accumulated more (up to 600 at some point) after my position was diluted to 75. Gas prices were about $1.50 when I was buying. Never seen that in my life. Of course the "reopening" and USO rally is where most of the money came from.

From here on out, I think I just need to NOT do stupid shit. I currently am holding USO, ROSS and SBUX. I plan on doing monthly statements. I am very busy, almost a graduate of a doctor program. Income will be 20k a month, so money is pretty meaningless. I need to buy property and start my IRAs/401ks already... in addition to adding to this account.
 

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