Long term equity market top today

[Blotto]

Expecting the high of the year we made on May 2nd to hold.

Whether this is a corrective phase before new highs (minimum six months) or the beginning of another 12-18 month bear phase is more difficult to tell.

Volatility should increase nicely from here.

Discuss. (and for the record I have made exactly zero market top calls during this bull market...until today)

 

[Locutus]

Thank god.

 

[actionzip54]

Are you calling the top cause its a good trade, or, because you want to be the guy that called the top on ET?

 

[actionzip54]

Are you calling the top cause its a good trade, or, because you want to be the guy that called the top on ET?

 

[Blotto]

Quote from actionzip54:

Are you calling the top cause its a good trade, or, because you want to be the guy that called the top on ET?

Doesn't matter if I do call the top. If you think it will do anything for me, remember that it will get lost in the noise, and secondly I do not make enough calls that anyone could tell anything significant - one swallow does not make a summer.

I think it is a good trade, but I could be persuaded out of that view by many things. One of which would be an overwhelming response of agreement with posters claiming to already be short.

Whether this is an overall turning point does not matter as I mostly day trade. However sometimes I like to open a longer term trade, and this seems to be a location for it. I'm encouraged also by the bearish nature of the Euro these last few days, although ES and NQ did not have any downside follow through today.

 

[volente_00]

I'm with you

1340 was my projection from 1260


My black box has spit out 1347.25 for short term high

Quote from volente_00:

I like a short from 1337-50 on cash with a stop at 1375 and target of sub 1200

 

[gdtrader]

From my experience you always kicked in the balls before you get any relief. Looking at 10 & 30 year T bills looks like we will have one more push down in rates giving market boost. From there On think top could possibly form.

 

[Zr1Trader]

Quote from Blotto:

Expecting the high of the year we made on May 2nd to hold.

Whether this is a corrective phase before new highs (minimum six months) or the beginning of another 12-18 month bear phase is more difficult to tell.

Volatility should increase nicely from here.

Discuss. (and for the record I have made exactly zero market top calls during this bull market...until today)

What metrics were you basing this top call on? Just curious.

 

[Zr1Trader]

I say we get to 13300 before a top based on past bull legs avg measurement.

 

[pokito]

Quote from Blotto:

Expecting the high of the year we made on May 2nd to hold.

Whether this is a corrective phase before new highs (minimum six months) or the beginning of another 12-18 month bear phase is more difficult to tell.

Volatility should increase nicely from here.

Discuss. (and for the record I have made exactly zero market top calls during this bull market...until today)

I'm not very active on ET but I think markets getting ready to go down too.
If not, they should go back up soon.
Although, I must say, they may go sideways for 12-18 months before deciding whether to go up or down.

and, and, and .....Miller Lite is better than Bud Lite