Long Spy, short vol: feedback welcome

[deltaf0rce]

In the simulator;

Rationale: triangle about to break out to 380-390

Long stock; due to negative delta at inception - should I gamma scalp?

last point; my buddy is a pro at a bulge, told me not to cap upside on this trade.

 

[guru]

How are you shorting vol?

 

[expiated]

I trade purely on updated technical analysis that answers the question: Is price rising or falling? And according to my diagnosis, SPY is currently at a decision point or level. So if it drops below 350, I'm bearish. However, if it climbs back above 351 and stays there, I'm bullish. But, at this point, I have to wait to see which direction it takes.

 

[deltaf0rce]

How are you shorting vol?

Selling the back month at the money ..

 

[taowave]

Fast move up is your friend..Sitting still,drifting lower is your enemy...You are calling for a 10% up move,short 100 diagnols(-2.5 delta) and long 437 shares againt it??? Thats not the play I would make if I was as bullish as you

In the simulator;

Rationale: triangle about to break out to 380-390

Long stock; due to negative delta at inception - should I gamma scalp?

last point; my buddy is a pro at a bulge, told me not to cap upside on this trade.

 

[deltaf0rce]

Fast move up is your friend..Sitting still,drifting lower is your enemy...You are calling for a 10% up move,short 100 diagnols(-2.5 delta) and long 437 shares againt it??? Thats not the play I would make if I was as bullish as you

The Greeks are in my favor but I’m certainly open to ideas. The payoff looks like selling a fly except I am selling vol. I also run the risk of getting assigned here.

An up and out diagonal may be better.

 

[Adam777]

IV(30) = HV(30) so why sell vol? Maybe something directional?

 

[horizon]

Could you please tell me your break even point?

 

[taowave]

You have to make an assumption on how the diaganol trades with a move...

Start with what,as in what range, causes the pain on the diaganol

 

[deltaf0rce]

To anyone wondering; not great!

when the spy comes back in to touch the triangle I will throw on an up and out and see where that goes.