Long Short Neutral?
- Thread starter Mvic
- Start date
SHORT SHORT SHORT
I see a 10-15% pullback over the next 1-2 months, that would put us back around 750 on the s&p.
Bear market rally is all this is, there is no need to rush in and buy when you will be able to buy over and over again in this sideways (going no where at all market) from now until 2020+
I see a 10-15% pullback over the next 1-2 months, that would put us back around 750 on the s&p.
Bear market rally is all this is, there is no need to rush in and buy when you will be able to buy over and over again in this sideways (going no where at all market) from now until 2020+
Nothing, based on economic conditions the markets rally seems to be just a bear market rally. Nothing has changed, I know the market looks ahead, however I just cannot believe that spending trillions of dollars is going create any growth in this economy. We still have plenty of bad news to follow this ever rising market and that is credit card delinquencies, ARMS resetting, more foreclosures as many more lose their jobs, commercial real estate only in early stages of completely falling apart, no bottom in housing and soon to be inflation.
Please show me a catalyst for this "NEW GREAT BULL MARKET" ????
Waiting to know what Mvic is doing, and possibly do the opposite.
More seriously now, if short options, looking for nothing except expiration to come and options going worthless.
All possibly true but in terms of making some coin trading this thing don't you have any levels or signs that would make you change your position? I agree this is a bear market rally but didn't start to get short until a few days ago and will get stopped out if we close over 895 and 271 on the Sox(I can always get short again if we give up those levels on the way back down but I am not willing to hold a short position for months and take the pain I took in the later half of 2007) have you really been short from the lows and willing to stay short till possibly 1000 SP? For what? Where do you think the low is that would justify sitting through a potential 300 point retracement? Also, are you not concerned that Bernanke will get his dream and manage somehow to start asset price inflation going such that by devaluing the USD asset prices will rise in nominal terms if not in real terms?
We all know that CRE is potentially the next shoe to drop but if the government just guarantee all CMBS then those of us short the sector get fucked. We already know that Geithner wanted the US to back ALL debt, now it seems he is doing just that but in a piece meal way that the public can't understand as clearly. Just look at what the REITs have been doing, all the news is catastrophic and yet SRS is hitting new lows, SPG is on a tear and CBG rallies on a miss. That's some powerful strength there and as right as it feels to be short in the light of the fundamentals you have to have an uncle point in the face of that type of momentum and strength and it has to take you out relatively quickly. I understand that part of the run may be short covering and part of the run may be prompted by a sense that BK can now be avoided by a lot of these REITS due to improved credit conditions but clearly there are buyers who believe in a second half recovery and they will keep buying until it is clear that is not going to happen. For all I know they may even be right, maybe we rally in to the summer based on al these green shoots (like the Chicago CPI today, we could see improvements of that nature for a few months yet and also a slowing of the growth in unemployment given how low the bar has been set by the 1st qt numbers).
The point is that the bear market may take until this fall to reassert itself or perhaps as late as 2010 if we get additional stimulus measures and more free money for banks. I think that traders have to have a point when they let the market tell them that they are wrong and that they are early or just plain wrong. Getting taken out by momentum and then having to get back in if support is then breached may cost a bit but it is certainly cheaper than holding on waiting for the market to turn no matter how much conviction you may have, and while I am talking primarily about cost in terms of P&L there is also a not insignificant psychological/physical/quality of life toll taken by being underwater/on the wrong side of the market day after day.
this market has confused pretty much everybody. the recent poll shows an unusual confusion above investors with roughly 1/3 each voting bull/bear/neutral.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161219&perpage=6&pagenumber=6
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161219&perpage=6&pagenumber=6
nice way to spam, I can show you 10 other sites that says the total opposite. Than again why base your decisions on others.