437 trades to get to 10 million. No resets boyee.
Long short game
- Thread starter nooby_mcnoob
- Start date
437 trades to get to 10 million. No resets boyee.
$50k by trade 100, tired after that.
Some issues:
If I could do this live for 11 years (i.e. corresponding to 100 * 40 days)? Probably not. Heck, just B&H last 11 years would do as well or better.
My selection criteria are heavily overfit on low vol regime of US equity markets created by QE.
Also, I wonder if the site owners are using the results of this as machine learning inputs.
Some issues:
If I could do this live for 11 years (i.e. corresponding to 100 * 40 days)? Probably not. Heck, just B&H last 11 years would do as well or better.
My selection criteria are heavily overfit on low vol regime of US equity markets created by QE.
Also, I wonder if the site owners are using the results of this as machine learning inputs.
Last edited:
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Think he's definitely learning from the successful players$50k by trade 100, tired after that.
Some issues:
If I could do this live for 11 years (i.e. corresponding to 100 * 40 days)? Probably not. Heck, just B&H last 11 years would do as well or better.
My selection criteria are heavily overfit on low vol regime of US equity markets created by QE.
Also, I wonder if the site owners are using the results of this as machine learning inputs.
I think I'm easily beating long only. In my previous test, it took 750 long-only trades to get to 5 million whereas with my "selective" long/short, it takes about 321 trades to get to 10.
I'm almost tempted to develop a notebook for this for my own use.
I'm almost tempted to develop a notebook for this for my own use.
Step 1:
View attachment 217159
Step 2:
View attachment 217160
755 trades to get to 5 million from $10K. What are the practicalities of this equity curve? There were multiple HUGE drawdowns.
But lets say you wanted to implement this strategy:
1. 40*755 = number of days needed = 30200
1. Number of weekend days in range: 2*40/7*755 = 8628
1. Total number of trading days: 21572
1. Total number of years: 21572/252 days per year = 85
So you'd need about 85 years to realize this strategy. That's about $60K/year on an initial capital outlay of which isn't too bad all things considered. So what's the strategy:
1. Randomly pick one of the top 500 stocks
2. Go long
3. Wait 40 days
4. Sell
5. Repeat
So what you need to do to show that you are talented is reach this number BEFORE 755 trades. Say in 100 trades.
That's the challenge homies. Make it so.
if it's compounded then 60k/year is invalid... you don't get it in the initial years.
so 85 years -
NDX 12.5% annual - $222m
SPY 9% annual - $15m
Dalio bullet proof 6% - $1.4m
bank cd 3% - $123k
I calculated 85 years but that's really 85 investment years for $10K. If you have $100K that gets reduced to 10 years because you can have more than one trade on at a time. Can't compound more than one QQQ at a time!
There is a lot of hand waving in this which is why I simply try to beat long only in # of rounds, which I've done.
where does 100k come from
