long nat gas

D

dartheory

I don't hear anyone ever discuss nat gas.

Nat gas is in an area (trendline support) where I want to be a buyer. I'm waiting to see if it will hold around or above the 3.33 area before going long. I think if Nat Gas takes out 3.46 in the next week it's going to run for a while.

From the COT report it seems like large specs are reducing their short positions.

I'm not an expert with spreads yet but it seems like some of the longer dated spreads like NGH3-NGZ3 are beginning to perk up a bit.

What do yall think?
 
Quote from dartheory:



I'm not an expert with spreads yet but it seems like some of the longer dated spreads like NGH3-NGZ3 are beginning to perk up a bit.

What do yall think?
More...

I think the NGH3 have an LT of 2/26/13
 
i've followed the nat gas story for my entire 1.3 year trading career.. one of those things i called my uncle about who was big in the drilling business to talk about.....
 
This came in via Jefferies, Feb 7, before the number:
Quote from Jefferies Bache:
Although we expect a bearish storage figure today, we feel that a bullish response to the data could prove much stronger than a bearish reaction given proximity of support and resistance levels. For instance, we see support fairly close at about the $3.40 area while significant resistance doesn’t develop until about $3.50. Even allowing for an extension of cold temperatures, we have difficulty constructing a scenario that would carry nearby values much above the $3.50 level on a sustainable basis. The advanced stage of the heating cycle and the fact that average daily temperatures are becoming less cold will act as a regulator on buying interest as this month proceeds. We moved to the sidelines and off of the bearish stance via yesterday’s assertive push to above the 3.41 level. But, we are looking to re-establish a bearish strategy in anticipation of an eventual price decline toward the $3.20 area.
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via Macquarie, Feb 8:
Quote from Macquarie Bank:
Futures are higher this morning as blizzard conditions are expected Friday morning into Saturday afternoon across the Northeast. The 11-15 day forecast also shows widespread cold but details regarding individual storm tracks remain uncertain. That said, with the peak of the winter heating season past, opportunities to eat into the natural gas storage surplus are fading. Bulls will need a sustained period of colder-than-normal temperatures to make a dent in the surplus above the five-year average. Otherwise, inventories are on track to end the heating season near or above 2,000 bcf, which would be the second-highest level on record, below last year's 2,369 bcf. In such a case, the downside risk of breaking $3 per mmBtu seems likely.
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there are some very knowledgeble people on this site, involved in the industry

like one guy said, "I'd be willing to give up 30% of my profits if I could find a good weatherman."

everybody knows how this goes with corn or wheat

if it's warm they don't need it

if it's cold they do

and if it gets really hot they may need some more

there is no shortage, plenty of supply

so it's all just a matter of demand
 
well nothing to do this week in nat gas. I think it's inevitable that we'll make some new lows next week. Lets see how far it drops at this point.
 
Your the one with the position you should be telling us.

Quote from dartheory:

I don't hear anyone ever discuss nat gas.

Nat gas is in an area (trendline support) where I want to be a buyer. I'm waiting to see if it will hold around or above the 3.33 area before going long. I think if Nat Gas takes out 3.46 in the next week it's going to run for a while.

From the COT report it seems like large specs are reducing their short positions.

I'm not an expert with spreads yet but it seems like some of the longer dated spreads like NGH3-NGZ3 are beginning to perk up a bit.

What do yall think?
More...
 
just follow the price. for example, in the middle of this past week price rose b/c of the expected winter storm/cold temps then it gave back all the gains and more - that is a sign the market wants to go lower when it reverses on bullish news.
 
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