long CME---profit potential 50%

U

Uncle_Ho

CME Holdings profit falls 30%
(7:23 AM ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- CME Group Holdings. (CME:CME Group Inc

Last: 240.34+21.78+9.97%

2:40pm 04/23/2009

CME 240.34, +21.78, +10.0%) said on Thursday that its first quarter net income was $199 million, or $3 a share, compared to $284 million, or $5.25 a share a year ago. The firm's revenue for the quarter was $647 million, vs. $625 million a year ago. On an adjusted basis, the company said it earned $3.20 share versus $5.24 a share a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet Research had expected the company to earn $3.23 a share on an adjusted basis, in the latest quarter.

Profit falls, yet the stock jumps 10%. Anyone like this exchange? I see a lot of profitability here. I see this stock gaining 50% over the next year if we get a nice bull run in Q3 or Q4 with dow up above 9k-10k
 
CME provided for a great long today. It showed relative strength early and bull flagged perfectly above yesterday's high near $232. Sold most into $240's for a day trade and holding some for longer term. Our chat room was all over this one!!
 
CME is an exceptional company. In fact, I'm wearing my black CME GROUP fleece right now!

As liquidity returns the Merc should benefit commensurately.

I trade their products, not their stock (disclaimer).

Happy trading =)
 
i have mixed feelings about ET and often prefer to just stay away form this place and simply post my pnl blotter.....but i feel that i'm out of my element and would like to hear some opinions of others...hopefully those who reply will be the posters who i have some resepect for (i.e. people who post in the pnl thread for instance, and a few others who actually make positive contributions in the form of intelligent analysis without the ego to go with it. Hopefully, the posers, neg balls, and assorted nut cases will not see this or at least move along to whatever else it is they do.

That being said....

I established a position in CME in April (see post above), with an avg. cost of 238. I entered into it as a position trade, expecting to hold for several months or maybe longer, with a target area of 350 - 425.

I do quite well as a, "reader of the daily trend" and make good money daytrading ES, however, I am not psychic and have no idea where the market will be next month, next qtr, next year, etc. Whether we are in a bear market rally or a new bull.... I would rather leave that issue aside because opinions on that matter are generally not worth a whole lot in my book.

Back to my question.....I'm thinking of borrowing a page from my daytrading strategy and scale some out in my target area and possibly hold the rest for......????

I didn't expect it to run up so fast, I was prepared to wait til late summer early fall for it to get to my target area. Certainly I could scale some out in my area and possibly look for a pullback to add if I thought the long -term prospects were good. However, as someone who is primarily a daytrader I'm reluctant to do that in this type market. The reason I'm reluctant is that I've conditoned myself to focus on getting good trade location....I believe that is a big part of why I can pull money out of ES prettty regularly. I feel that I have good location with CME, but have no idea how far it can run. If it was a daytrde, I would probably have sense, but I've become so myopic as a daytrader that I think I miss the forest for the trees at times. So while I trade their products I don't understand the fundamentals of the co. Some say that increased e-mini vol will make up for loss of vol in other areas..some say that derivaitve vol. will decrease if the market improves...etc....lots of different opinions.

I'm reluctant to play options on this, as I have never had much success with them in the past, my calling is to be daytrader, so I really feel out of my element here.

Informed thoughts and opinions would be appreciated.
 
There is a strong resistance at 363 xxxskier. Of course resistance doesn't mean a brick wall so the price can break through so I would reevaluate the stock when and if it gets there.

Personally I deleveraged 70% of my positions I bought into in March. No one really know whats going on, especially on this board in reguards to mid to long term prospecputs of the market so do what you're comfortable with.
 
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