Long and Short ATM Straddles are Dead Money - But a very accurate indicator of future stock movement

sle said:
Oh! Yes! Lets bet on two expiration buckets, OptionGuru. As I said before, if you are giving 50/50 odds on two 20-bp wide expiration buckets, I'll take the other side.
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Who said anything about betting on the straddle!

There is another point to the excercise, but one thing is for sure, I am not going to say it for all the idiots to pick up on it - there are a few who know what it is I speak about.

Now, shut up and wait till Friday till we see what actually happens - if you want to argue about silly things with other idiots, you are not short of threads:rolleyes:

J_S
 
2rosy said:
you don't have to hold the straddle until expiration. and you don't have to hold short maturity straddles
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What is your point?

Your reply is very ambiguous. Of course the trade can be exited at anytime, it doesn't matter.



:)
 
If you think that every trade will be a winner, then you are nothing but a thich egit.

You need money to make money!

Certain types of trading carry more risk than others - it all depends on your circumstances, both financial and personal, which is absolutely no one else's business but your own, and you should keep it that way.

Timing is everything when trading, and if you do not do everything to the T, with every trade, then you must be willing and able for the potential drawdown on your account - otherwise you will end up an emotional wreck and blow out in no time.

Scared money never wins, but, the market is never that high/low, so that it can not go higher/lower - so accept the fact and just get on with it.

I am currently short and losing, but I am not one little bit worried, as I do not think the market will take off to the moon in the next fee weeks, and even if it does, I will bail out at my predefined max loss on account, having consulted the charts and paying close attention for a reversal of the move up.

Just thought I would say that - not really off topic, as we are talking about the range for the week, which is the market movements!

J_S
 
OptionGuru said:
I'm using the July 15, 2016 options as an example to get the final results quickly. My thread applies to all expiry dates.







The MM's mis-priced the options - in the favor of the buyers. The buyers made about 50% return over two days, while the sellers lost 50%. Over time it will balance out making the Long and Short ATM Straddles not worth trading, but they are useful in determining what the MM's expect of the market.

Is there a difference between the mm's price and the market price? I just assumed that the price I see is the market. So in this case the market seems to have underpriced calls relative to what actually is happening. In other words, ongoing pessimism in the face of an ongoing rally. Am I missing something?


IMO ......... Option Open Interest and Volume will not provided any insight how the underlying will trade to expiry.




:)
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One is the market, the other some price given by a mm. I assume that in less liquid options, there might be a difference from the ideal. Are we talking about the same thing?
 
Also, if one says mm, it seems like they are setting a price. I'm asking honestly. When we say the mm's are skeptical of this rally, what does that mean? Skew?
 
Cswim63 said:
One is the market, the other some price given by a mm. I assume that in less liquid options, there might be a difference from the ideal. Are we talking about the same thing?
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Whatever is marketable. I don't bother with low volume obscure options.

Cswim63 said:
Also, if one says mm, it seems like they are setting a price. I'm asking honestly. When we say the mm's are skeptical of this rally, what does that mean? Skew?
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I have never heard anyone say the "mm's are skeptical of this rally". The media is the one that drums up stories.





:)
 
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