London post-brexit as a financial center

Visaria said:
Nope. Over £10 billion a year. We could just take that money and spent it on any industries that are affected by a no deal brexit.
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Wrong, as you would lose already 1.5 billion for research that the EU is giving to the UK every year. You have a very simplistic view.
Why did nobody ever asked professors/real professionals in macro economics to analyze the situation?

This will impact your 10 billion in a negative way too (just 1 of the thousands of changes):
Jamie Dimon says 4,000 UK jobs could go.
The chief executive of JP Morgan has told the BBC it could cut its 16,000 UK workforce by more than a quarter if financial rules diverge after Brexit.
 
I am not going to spent more time on this discussion anymore.

As a leaving present I have some information (from probably a source that will be rejected as it does not fit in the projected image by pro brexit):
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-...ource=content_page&utm_medium=related_content
£350 million a week doesn’t include the rebate
It’s been claimed that we send £350 million a week to the EU. That misses out the rebate, and it doesn’t represent the total economic costs and benefits of EU membership to the UK.

£350 million is roughly what we would pay to the EU budget without the rebate. The UK actually paid closer to £250 million a week.

The UK Statistics Authority has said the EU membership fee figure of £19 billion a year, or £350 million a week, is "not an amount of money that the UK pays to the EU each year".
Since then, the new chair of the Authority described use of the figure by the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, as “a clear misuse of official statistics”.

The UK gets money back
The government then gets some of that money back, mainly through payments to farmers and for poorer areas of the country such as Wales and Cornwall.

In 2017, the UK's ‘public sector receipts’ are estimated to be £4 billion.

So overall we paid in £8.9 billion more than we got back.

The Treasury figures note payments the EU makes directly to the private sector, such as research grants. In 2015, these were worth an estimated £1.5 billion, so including them could reduce our net contribution further still.

The money we get back will be spent on things the government may or may not choose to fund upon leaving the EU. It’s not enough to look at the net contribution in isolation because what we get back isn’t fully under our control.

 
schweiz said:
I am not going to spent more time on this discussion anymore.
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Mate, you never answered my queries, just kept on with your pro EU propaganda. My last question I asked was if there was another economic free trade area that a member paid £10 billion to, hell, any amount, you couldn't even answer that.

You are clearly out of your depth.

Bye.
 
dealmaker said:
Nearly half of managers plan to leave U.K. post-Brexit — survey
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Almost 50% of money and wealth managers surveyed by professional services firm EY confirmed or stated their intention to move operations to Europe from the U.K. as a result of Brexit. (Pensions & Investments)
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They sampled 57 firms out of thousands of financial services companies in London. 44% (25) said they were moving some assets to Europe. Which is fine, I would also be moving some assets too if I were the management of a firm which had EU dealings.

To my mind it's more noteworthy as to why 56% of the 57 sample are saying they are not moving any assets to Europe!
 
monet said:
Does anyone actually have a big bet on GBP (in either direction)?

schweiz, are you short GBP? If not, why not?

Visaria, are you long GBP?
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Most of my assets are in GBP. After all, I live in London. I do take positions though both for hedging and speculative purposes. My last trade was being short from 1.27, I exited at 1.25 when the flash crash happened last week.

Predictions? FWIW, going forward, a no deal brexit will cause a dip in the pound....but medium to longer term i would expect the pound to sharply rally maybe to levels pre the brexit vote.

If there is some sort of crap deal with the EU, then the pound is more likely to rise initially but fall over time.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46792556

Leader of the main opposition party beaten up. Too bad.

I'm shocked that the opposition party in Germany is a bunch of far right extremists. Maybe they'll be in power in the next few years.

Even more shocking is that people want the UK to stay in the EU, which could well be ruled by a neo Nazi party in the coming years.
 
I missed this, this was in November:

https://www.politico.eu/article/tru...uropean-army-to-defend-against-u-s-insulting/

Macron during an interview on Europe 1 radio called on the formation of "a true European army" after Trump announced that the U.S. was withdrawing from a nuclear weapons agreement with Russia.

"We have to protect ourselves with respect to China, Russia and even the United States of America."

So basically the President of France wants an EU army to defend against the axis of evil known as China, Russia and the US! That's right Yanks, you guys are in the same league as China and Russia.

This has implications for the UK being the biggest ally of the US. Are we as well on the hitlist of this EU Army?

More reason to leave the EU asap.
 
Goldman Sachs, which employs 6,500 UK staff, is set to at least double its Frankfurt workforce to 400.

Citi has confirmed around 150-200 staff will be affected out of 6,000 in London

Barclays also expects a "small number" of roles - around 150 - to move from London to Europe, with most heading to Dublin.

Sounds disastrous for London lol.
 
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