London post-brexit as a financial center

[schweiz]

do u have any thoughts on the plunge in the euro today

That was a "plunge" of 0.00238. LOL.
How do you call then then the weakening (0.31495) of the GBP against the EUR the last 3 years?
That drop of the GBP against the EUR was 132 times bigger then your plunge today.
And all that time Great Britain was GREAT Britain too. So what is the link between GREAT and GBP?
Even 3 months ago the GBP was above 1.15 against the EUR. So the Q3 GDP results did not avoid the GBP to crash to 1.10 in just four weeks. In fact in oktober after the Q3 results, the GBP crashed. That crash was 21 times bigger then your today's "plunge" (0.5 versus 0.00238).

 

[Visaria]

schweiz, do u have any input on the below that you would like to share with us?

Volly, do u think there would be any consequences for any of European countries if there was a no deal Brexit?

 

[JSOP]

So you deny that a no-deal will have grave consequences for the UK and that a no-deal will have much more dire consequences for the UK than Europe? Then you contradict virtually every financial analyst and strategist in the universe. Guess whom we all should lend more credibility to, you, an anonymous blogger, or those who talk fact-based with decades of evidenced based work experience and results under their belt?

This is what UK needs to do: People need to get it through their head: UK IS LEAVING!! More than 50% of the people voted to leave EU, people have spoken, UK IS LEAVING, with OR without a deal. So they better send in a strong and able negotiator than the current lame Theresa May to negotiate with EU to get the best deal it can. Everybody needs to get over this "if we fail to get a deal then we may stay" illusion and hope at the end that UK ends up staying in EU as if nothing happens. It's NOT going to happen. Even if UK does end up staying in EU, EU will still punish UK in some way somewhere and will never treat UK the same way, it won't be worth it for UK in the long run. It's like in a divorce when the wife ends up having no choice but staying with the husband who had bullied to give the wife the shittiest deal possible in the divorce negotiations, you think the wife would be happy in the marriage from then on? The husband would respect the wife now that it sees how dependent the wife is on him and has got nowhere to go besides going back to him? This UK-EU dynamic is the same thing. If UK does end up giving up Brexit and end up staying, it would actually be even worse for UK because now that EU knows how desperate UK is and how UK's got nowhere to go besides EU so it would take more advantage of that to impose even harsher terms on UK than before when UK was in EU. This is the absolute worst scenario that UK could be in. No UK needs to finish what it started. If UK cannot get a deal, then it's leaving with no deal! There would be some challenges that UK will be facing with a "no deal" in the beginning yes but it's nothing that UK cannot face or conquer. The worst is leaving with the current POS draft agreement that gives UK no benefits with EU but still bound to all kinds of EU s*** like the anti-competitive "regulations" and supremacy of EU law over UK law. That's unacceptable.

Since you worship the "analysts and experts" like god, I will tell you this is what a lot of "analysts and experts" are saying too: UK needs to position themselves that a workable deal that benefits both UK and EU is the cream on top but worst comes to worst, UK would just leave EU with no deal. That's actually what's going to work for UK. Staying is NOT an option!!

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

Are you trading any live accounts actually?

schweiz, do u have any input on the below that you would like to share with us?

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

You really don't get it mate. This IS the best deal the UK can get. With or without Theresa May. Have European leaders not made this crystal clear on several occasions? Everyone in Europe has accepted the British referendum. So, get the hell out, with or without Theresa May, nobody cares in Central Europe. Just do what you decided and promised. And remember, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

I am out of this thread, it is getting childish

This is what UK needs to do: People need to get it through their head: UK IS LEAVING!! More than 50% of the people voted to leave EU, people have spoken, UK IS LEAVING, with OR without a deal. So they better send in a strong and able negotiator than the current lame Theresa May to negotiate with EU to get the best deal it can. Everybody needs to get over this "if we fail to get a deal then we may stay" illusion and hope at the end that UK ends up staying in EU as if nothing happens. It's NOT going to happen. Even if UK does end up staying in EU, EU will still punish UK in some way somewhere and will never treat UK the same way, it won't be worth it for UK in the long run. It's like in a divorce when the wife ends up having no choice but staying with the husband who had bullied to give the wife the shittiest deal possible in the divorce negotiations, you think the wife would be happy in the marriage from then on? The husband would respect the wife now that it sees how dependent the wife is on him and has got nowhere to go besides going back to him? This UK-EU dynamic is the same thing. If UK does end up giving up Brexit and end up staying, it would actually be even worse for UK because now that EU knows how desperate UK is and how UK's got nowhere to go besides EU so it would take more advantage of that to impose even harsher terms on UK than before when UK was in EU. This is the absolute worst scenario that UK could be in. No UK needs to finish what it started. If UK cannot get a deal, then it's leaving with no deal! There would be some challenges that UK will be facing with a "no deal" in the beginning yes but it's nothing that UK cannot face or conquer. The worst is leaving with the current POS draft agreement that gives UK no benefits with EU but still bound to all kinds of EU s*** like the anti-competitive "regulations" and supremacy of EU law over UK law. That's unacceptable.

Since you worship the "analysts and experts" like god, I will tell you this is what a lot of "analysts and experts" are saying too: UK needs to position themselves that a workable deal that benefits both UK and EU is the cream on top but worst comes to worst, UK would just leave EU with no deal. That's actually what's going to work for UK. Staying is NOT an option!!

 

[Visaria]

Are you trading any live accounts actually?

Yes.

Have u received your refund yet?

 

[Visaria]

UK would just leave EU with no deal.

Just to correct you slightly: that would be leaving with a deal, it's called the WTO deal. And it sounds wonderful. No need to pay £39 billion to EU. Just tell them if THEY want money or a deal, then they can call 999 mwhahaha.

 

[JSOP]

Just to correct you slightly: that would be leaving with a deal, it's called the WTO deal. And it sounds wonderful. No need to pay £39 billion to EU. Just tell them if THEY want money or a deal, then they can call 999 mwhahaha.

I know. Don't know why UK joined EU in the first place.

 

[JSOP]

You really don't get it mate. This IS the best deal the UK can get.

This is the best deal that the lame Theresa May can get. That's the not the same thing.

I am out of this thread, it is getting childish

Goodbye, don't let the browser hit you on your way out!

 

[schweiz]

Just to correct you slightly: that would be leaving with a deal, it's called the WTO deal. And it sounds wonderful. No need to pay £39 billion to EU. Just tell them if THEY want money or a deal, then they can call 999 mwhahaha.

When a couple marries they have both rights and obligations. They both have to contribute to pay all the expenses. They have to agree on that if not they cannot marry.

If they buy a house, each person has part in it. In general (except if agreed differently) they both have to pay and both will receive their part when the house will be sold. In case of a divorce all obligations linked with the marriage (loans and other debts, saving accounts, taxes...) should first be ended, and paid if needed, before the divorce can be final.

One partner cannot say: I am out, you can pay all the bills for which we engaged together. They are both legally bounded to their obligations.

The same is true for membership of the EU. When you enter you have an agreement to sign. With 99.99% certainty nobody on ET ever read this agreement. The EU takes all the time long term engagements that are always approved by the members. These members also approve the amount of money that is paid by each member state, as well the subsidies they would receive. So also their OWN obligations towards the EU. As the UK legally bounded themselves in these long term commitments, they have to fulfill completely their financial obligations. They have to pay their part of the longterm engagements they agreed on.

The UK acts like the person who wants a divorce and wants to dump all the expenses, and engagements and let the others pay. The future engagements have to be calculated and be paid for their part by the UK. They cannot engage, run away and leave the bill with the other members. I think if they will do that they will be prosecuted by the EU.

I wonder how many people on this forum have any clue about the agreement that was signed between the UK and EU when the UK entered. A lot of experts in these matters have problems to solve the is complex situation. But on ET we do not only have experts in trading, we apparently also have experts in EU legislation.

I am not an expert, just read a bit about the situation and the cause of the financial dispute.
All parties envolved will take a hit, there will be no winners except for the lawyers.