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London post-brexit as a financial center
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Looks really, really bad for Germany and the rest of the Eurozone. Lord know what will happen to these countries if there's a no deal Brexit. Outright depression imho.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...n-most-likely-to-suffer-recession-its-germany
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...and-that-spells-trouble-for-europe-2019-01-28
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-economy-on-downturn-slope-ifo-idUSKCN1PJ0UC
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...n-most-likely-to-suffer-recession-its-germany
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...and-that-spells-trouble-for-europe-2019-01-28
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-economy-on-downturn-slope-ifo-idUSKCN1PJ0UC
You know when it's going badly when the Germans start worrying:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...uilds-dangerous-handling-brexit-euideologues/
Germany's IFO warns:
A group of top German economists has told the EU to tear up the Irish backstop and ditch its ideological demands in Brexit talks, calling instead for a flexible Europe of concentric circles that preserves friendly ties with the UK.
Brussels must “abandon its indivisibility dogma” on the EU’s four freedoms and come up with a creative formula or risk a disastrous showdown with London that could all too easily spin out of control.
A joint report by the influential Ifo Institute and universities across Germany and Europe warned that Brussels may be deluding itself in thinking that the EU has the upper hand in all respects or that the British will inevitably capitulate before March 29.
“From the German point of view we need Britain as hedge against countries with protectionist instincts like France and Italy. The British are closer to our liberal free-market tradition. We also need Britain in this customs association because it makes Europe’s GDP 20pc larger and gives us more bargaining power with China, India, and the US.”
Growing dissent in Germany also reflects worries that a no-deal Brexit could lead to a serious economic shock and crystallise the eurozone’s long-festering problems, starting with a pan-eurozone banking crisis and a fresh Italian debt drama.
Italy fell into recession in the second half of 2018. It is the third slump in a decade and each time the debt ratio climbs closer to the point of no return for a country with no sovereign currency or monetary instruments.
An earlier study by IW Institute in Cologne warned that a worst-case hard Brexit could slash German exports to the UK by 57pc, with serious disruption to supply chains and a huge loss of sunk investments.
Germany’s economy is already struggling with the slowdown in China and emerging markets. A blow on this scale at this juncture would push it over the edge into a sharp contraction.
It would also face demands for financial compensation at a time when it might not be able to count on all of the UK’s £39bn exit fee. Prof Felbermayr said Britain might immediately tear down its global customs barriers and opt for unilateral free trade - at least for a while - leaving European exporters struggling to compete in the UK markets against the cheapest products in the world.
If so, the chaos at customs posts would chiefly be on the EU side, at their ports. They would not be ready to handle rules or origin and clearance procedures on such a scale, causing havoc to EU supply chains.
Prof Felbermayr said European companies would be up in arms, blame their own governments and pressure the EU to drop the tariffs: “I don’t think anyone in Brussels has really thought this through.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...uilds-dangerous-handling-brexit-euideologues/
Germany's IFO warns:
A group of top German economists has told the EU to tear up the Irish backstop and ditch its ideological demands in Brexit talks, calling instead for a flexible Europe of concentric circles that preserves friendly ties with the UK.
Brussels must “abandon its indivisibility dogma” on the EU’s four freedoms and come up with a creative formula or risk a disastrous showdown with London that could all too easily spin out of control.
A joint report by the influential Ifo Institute and universities across Germany and Europe warned that Brussels may be deluding itself in thinking that the EU has the upper hand in all respects or that the British will inevitably capitulate before March 29.
“From the German point of view we need Britain as hedge against countries with protectionist instincts like France and Italy. The British are closer to our liberal free-market tradition. We also need Britain in this customs association because it makes Europe’s GDP 20pc larger and gives us more bargaining power with China, India, and the US.”
Growing dissent in Germany also reflects worries that a no-deal Brexit could lead to a serious economic shock and crystallise the eurozone’s long-festering problems, starting with a pan-eurozone banking crisis and a fresh Italian debt drama.
Italy fell into recession in the second half of 2018. It is the third slump in a decade and each time the debt ratio climbs closer to the point of no return for a country with no sovereign currency or monetary instruments.
An earlier study by IW Institute in Cologne warned that a worst-case hard Brexit could slash German exports to the UK by 57pc, with serious disruption to supply chains and a huge loss of sunk investments.
Germany’s economy is already struggling with the slowdown in China and emerging markets. A blow on this scale at this juncture would push it over the edge into a sharp contraction.
It would also face demands for financial compensation at a time when it might not be able to count on all of the UK’s £39bn exit fee. Prof Felbermayr said Britain might immediately tear down its global customs barriers and opt for unilateral free trade - at least for a while - leaving European exporters struggling to compete in the UK markets against the cheapest products in the world.
If so, the chaos at customs posts would chiefly be on the EU side, at their ports. They would not be ready to handle rules or origin and clearance procedures on such a scale, causing havoc to EU supply chains.
Prof Felbermayr said European companies would be up in arms, blame their own governments and pressure the EU to drop the tariffs: “I don’t think anyone in Brussels has really thought this through.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ory.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7e50085ad5b1
German airline Germania files for insolvency, grounds planes
More bad news for Germany...
German airline Germania files for insolvency, grounds planes
More bad news for Germany...
That's a hell of a reach. If you're going for doom and gloom I'd be hitting DB before a random shitty low cost carrier airline, those things go under all the time with pretty much jack for impact on the national economy of a Germany size country!https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ory.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7e50085ad5b1
German airline Germania files for insolvency, grounds planes
More bad news for Germany...
In the UK they have so many insolvencies that they had to open a full department to manage the problems:
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/insolvency-service
LOL.
Watch this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...job-losses-theresa-may-business-a8751936.html
The 2018 figures released this morning by the Insolvency Service for England and Wales are a case in point.
What they show is that the underlying number of companies hitting the wall last year hit 16,090, the highest level since 2014, and a ten per cent rise on the previous year. The number of personal insolvencies came in at 115,229, the highest level since 2011.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...-six-year-high-as-record-number-take-out-ivas
UK insolvencies hit six-year high as finances come under pressure.
http://www.ccrmagazine.com/uk-insolvencies-set-for-9-rise-in-2019-even-if-a-brexit-deal-is-agreed/
UK insolvencies set for +9% rise in 2019, even if a Brexit deal is agreed
Some things are indeed booming in the UK. ROFLMAO.
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/insolvency-service
LOL.
Watch this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...job-losses-theresa-may-business-a8751936.html
The 2018 figures released this morning by the Insolvency Service for England and Wales are a case in point.
What they show is that the underlying number of companies hitting the wall last year hit 16,090, the highest level since 2014, and a ten per cent rise on the previous year. The number of personal insolvencies came in at 115,229, the highest level since 2011.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...-six-year-high-as-record-number-take-out-ivas
UK insolvencies hit six-year high as finances come under pressure.
http://www.ccrmagazine.com/uk-insolvencies-set-for-9-rise-in-2019-even-if-a-brexit-deal-is-agreed/
UK insolvencies set for +9% rise in 2019, even if a Brexit deal is agreed
Some things are indeed booming in the UK. ROFLMAO.
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Bloomberg: You have large investments in the U.K., so how concerned are you about the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deadline at the end of March?
Yngve Slyngstad: We should have expected two years ago that the peak of this uncertainty would be in March 2019. The longer perspective in our view is still that we are invested in the U.K. with a long-term horizon. How much we will invest will not be changed depending on the result of this development. If we look past this—10, 20, 30 years—the U.K. will be an important economy in Europe, and it will remain in Europe. We expect business on that timeline to develop positively no matter the outcome.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-trillion-man-talks-brexit-china-and-big-tech
Yngve Slyngstad: We should have expected two years ago that the peak of this uncertainty would be in March 2019. The longer perspective in our view is still that we are invested in the U.K. with a long-term horizon. How much we will invest will not be changed depending on the result of this development. If we look past this—10, 20, 30 years—the U.K. will be an important economy in Europe, and it will remain in Europe. We expect business on that timeline to develop positively no matter the outcome.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-trillion-man-talks-brexit-china-and-big-tech
Bloomberg: You have large investments in the U.K., so how concerned are you about the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deadline at the end of March?
Yngve Slyngstad: We should have expected two years ago that the peak of this uncertainty would be in March 2019. The longer perspective in our view is still that we are invested in the U.K. with a long-term horizon. How much we will invest will not be changed depending on the result of this development. If we look past this—10, 20, 30 years—the U.K. will be an important economy in Europe, and it will remain in Europe. We expect business on that timeline to develop positively no matter the outcome.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-trillion-man-talks-brexit-china-and-big-tech
The only thing Yngve Slyngstad is doing is buying or selling stocks. What he does has no impact on the economy. So his opinion is not relevant.
BMW on the other hand, has economical activities in the UK. They invest, import, export, create jobs, pay taxes... So while they are far smaller then the Norwegian pensionfund, their impact will be 100 times more important for the UK. If they leave the Uk will lose thousands of jobs. If Yngve Slyngstad leaves, by selling stocks, other investors will buy these stocks. So that will have no impact at all on the UK economy.
They interviewed the wrong person.
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