August 18, 2012
SouthAmerica: Reply to John Wensink
First, I don't know why the Brazilian government fought so hard to bring the Olympics to Brazil. The 2012 London Olympics was a complete fiasco in Brazil, because most Brazilians were more interested in watching their regular âsoap operasâ than watch the Olympic games â and the only sport Brazilians were really interested was in man's soccer, and Brazilians were pissed that they got the silver medal â the silver medal means Brazil lost the final game, and nobody gives a damn about the losing team.
It will be a major effort to accomplish something that most Brazilians don't give a shit about it. Anyway, the only area that counts Brazilians will make sure that that part of the project it is done well â I am talking about the stadiums that will be used for the 2014 World Cup, which also will be used for the Rio Olympics in 2016.
I understand the way most Brazilians feel about the Olympics in general â the only sport that I did watch of the entire 2012 London Olympics was the man's soccer games â I did not watch anything else â I just saw as a highlight during a news broadcast when they showed in the news that Bolt had broken the world record for 100 meters.
Second, you said; âSouth America is still China's lapdog and everything he posts is 100% wrong.â
John you used the term âChina's lapdogâ and in the context that you used that idiom, that shows that you don't know what being a lapdog means.
If you had said that my articles over the years highlighted the shift that was happening in South America including in Brazil from United States influence to new Chinese influence in that part of the world, then you would be correct about that. I had been documenting that fact for many years, long before that caught the attention of the US mainstream media.
And my articles published at Brazzil magazine have influenced Chinese economic and financial policy regarding Brazil, and you can see it in what I wrote on my articles at Brazzil magazine and the discussions following these articles, and the actual actions that followed by the Chinese in Brazil.
John you also said: âand everything he posts is 100% wrong.â
About 2 days ago, I posted on Brazzil magazine a copy of a discussion that I had with a friend of mine on Facebook â But if you search here on ET you would find out that I had been saying the same thing on this forum regarding the Brazilian currency the real.
Here is the link to Brazzil magazine and a copy of that conversation (you might thing that I have been 100% wrong, but my track record shows a different story; it shows that I have been 100% right.â
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Brazzil magazine
After Two Years in Power Brazil President Gets an A in Economy, Politics, and Foreign Policy
http://www.brazzil.com/component/co...omy-politics-and-foreign-policy.html#comments
Reply to Ederson and Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 16, 2012
Ricardo: Both of you will find interesting the ongoing discussion between myself and a friend of mine from Facebook as follows:
Cenário econômico preocupante
by Gustavo Tamm Brandão on Friday, July 29, 2011 at 12:22am ·
O Banco Central não irá aumentar os juros (ou não muito), o que seria necessário para conter a inflação....
http://www.facebook.com/notes/gusta...eocupante/154934104583117?comment_id=11889103
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Gustavo Tamm Brandão: ‎Ricardo C. Amaral, quem viver verá. Lembro que os aumentos salariais serão repassados aos preços, alimentando a espiral inflacionária.
July 29, 2011 at 1:41am
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Ricardo: At the end of July of last year a friend of mine from Facebook posted the above info and asked me my opinion about that subject, and here is a copy of the ongoing discussion:
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Ricardo C. Amaral: Today the real must be overvalued against the game that the United States has been playing with the US dollar and China with the yuan.
In my opinion, the time is now for Finance Minister Guido Mantega to announce what I have been suggesting since last year: a 40 percent devaluation of the real, and adopt a fixed rate currency system for the real pegged to a basket of currencies including the US dollar and the Chinese yuan to anchor the real against the US dollar and the yuan â and keep the new currency system until the market conditions change and at that time the Brazilian central bank would make the necessary adjustments.
The only reason I can think that he is not doing that is because the financial markets in Brazil must be in the pocket of Wall Street.
July 29, 2011 at 1:53am
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Gustavo Tamm Brandão: O câmbio hoje se desvalorizou, após algumas medidas do governo. Todavia caiu em todo o mundo, como exemplo, a desvalorização brasileira foi praticamente igual à inglesa, portanto não temos como saber se houve eficácia do governo ou apenas um efeito mundial.
July 29, 2011 at 1:55am
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Ricardo C. Amaral: A devaluation of 40 percent of the real it would break that cycle of âHot Moneyâ going to Brazil to chase the high interest rates that they can get in Brazil.
And the âHot Moneyâ is creating various economic bubbles in Brazil resulting in higher inflation.
July 29, 2011 at 1:57am
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Gustavo Tamm Brandão: Há vozes acusando um enfraquecimento da indústria em função do câmbio.
July 29, 2011 at 2:01am
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Ricardo C. Amaral: Gustavo, if Guido Mantega does not follow this strategy then the real will continue appreciating against the US dollar and the yuan with catastrophic consequences for the Brazilian economy.
But regarding the currency manipulation of the United States and China the country that is being screwed in a big way is: Brazil.
In the last 2 years the real appreciated 45 percent against the US and Chinese currency - resulting in a loss of 100,000 manufacturing jobs in Brazil in 2009 and another 60,000 manufacturing jobs in 2010. And things are not getting any better for Brazil in 2011.
This foreign exchange policy of the Brazilian government is creating a major problem for the Brazilian economy, because is increasing the cost of doing business in Brazil and products made in Brazil is becoming very expensive, and they are also putting the tourism industry out of business in Brazil. Brazil is becoming a very expensive place for people from other countries to go for vacation.
I am aware that some major Brazilian corporations have been borrowing large amounts of money in the United States to take advantage of the lower interest rate than they can borrow in Brazil.
I also remember that over the years in similar circumstance major Brazilian corporations used the same strategy in the past only to be caught by surprise when the Brazilian currency devalued against the US dollar and in no time made these corporations financially insolvent because of these loans in US dollar.
July 29, 2011 at 2:20am
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Reply to Ederson and Joao da Silva - Part 2 of 2
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 16, 2012
Part 2 of 2
The discussion continues about one year later:
Gustavo Tamm Brandão: Veja Ricardo C. Amaral, está fazendo um ano que tivemos essa conversa. Um forte abraço ao amigo.
August 14, 2012 at 4:36pm
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Ricardo C. Amaral:
Historical exchange rate (BRL:USD)
29 Jul 2011: 1.5491
31 Jul 2012: 2.0573
Gustavo, in the last 12 months the Brazilian Real decreased in value versus the US dollar by 33 percent.
When the Brazilian Real was trading around 1:55 to US$ 1 â I had been calling for a Brazilian Real devaluation between 35 to 40 percent versus the Us dollar and also versus the Chinese yuan â after one year we are almost there.
I also had been calling for a Central Bank cut in the Selic rate all the way down to around 7 percent to drive economic activity up inside Brazil and at the same time to drive the âHot Moneyâ out of the Brazilian economy.
We are almost at the point that I thought the Brazilian Real and the Selic rate should be â but there's one problem, in the last 12 months the economic situation deteriorated drastically in Euroland, and also in China, India, and so on.... - we are in an economic race to the bottom.
The Euroland economy is imploding faster than most people realized, and we have also a major economic slowdown in China and India, and the combination of all this massive global economic decline it will have a negative affect in the Brazilian economy.
In another words, I am not sure if the 33 percent devaluation of the Brazilian Real that we had so far versus the US dollar and the Chinese yuan it is enough to protect the manufacturing base of Brazilian industry and also the tourism industry in Brazil.
We are in a race to the bottom , and Brazil has to keep pace with the currency manipulation by the US Federal Reserve (their series of QE program â artificial manipulation and intervention in the financial market) â and also with the games played by the Chinese government regarding the Chinese yuan.
August 14, 2012 at 9:01pm
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Gustavo Tamm Brandão: Obrigado Ricardo, é sempre um prazer ler as suas matérias e comentários. Nos próximos meses pretendo visitar os USA, passando por Miami, Washington e NY. Conforme combinamos tempos atrás, um cafezinho em solo americano será por sua conta. Recentemente, estive com a sua prima Graziela Ribeiro de Andrada em BH e ela está muito bem após o acidente, graças a Deus. Um forte abraço.
August 15, 2012 at 9:06am
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Ricardo C. Amaral: Sera um prazer, me avise das datas de quando vc vai estar em NY.
Um forte abraco para vc tambem.
August 15, 2012 at 2:02pm
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