LL

[oldnemesis]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-liquidators-reports-4q-loss-111137167.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lu...flooring-hit-sales-2016-02-29?dist=beforebell

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tops...-ll-plunges-on-cdcs-cancer-concern/ar-BBpTjfC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=LL

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ll

Trade:
With LL at 10.20
Aug 15/20 bear call spread for a net credit of $70
(bid/ask = .25/1.15)
Yield = 70/430 = 16.3% in 172 days or 34% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(70) - .12(430) - .10(215) = 54.6 - 51.6 - 21.5 = -18.5

Price ............Profit / Loss........... ROM %
8.00.................... 70.00.............. 16.30%
11.00.................. 70.00.............. 16.30%
14.50.................. 70.00.............. 16.30%
15.00.................. 70.00.............. 16.30%
15.70.................... 0.00............... 0.00%
18.27............... (256.60)........... -51.32%
20.00............... (430.00)........... -83.70%
21.63............... (430.00)........... -83.70%
25.00............... (430.00)........... -83.70%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ll&ql=1

There's a lot of pre-market interest in this stock which makes this a very dynamic situation. I will update after the open...please don't post here until after that.

 

[oldnemesis]

Filled at $53
Yield = 53/447 = 11.9% in 172 days or 25% annualized

$70 still running

 

[oldnemesis]

$70 filled. (it pays to wait)
Avg fill = 64.3
Yield = 64.30/435.7 = 14.8% in 172 days or 31.3% annualized
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ll