% off open
COT .86
ELOS 1.07
HCBK 1.30 Loss
SSS .07 Loss
Never did take the TAP trade but for the record.
TAP 2.77
COT .86
ELOS 1.07
HCBK 1.30 Loss
SSS .07 Loss
Never did take the TAP trade but for the record.
TAP 2.77
Livermore, Tudor Jones and Cohen
- Thread starter Standard Oil
- Start date
Long Candidates:
WAT
HBI
WX
Short Candidates:
WRB
CCC
KIM
In light of the jobs data I'm NOT taking any Long trades till after I see how the market trades in the first hour and I highly doubt I will all day.
WAT
HBI
WX
Short Candidates:
WRB
CCC
KIM
In light of the jobs data I'm NOT taking any Long trades till after I see how the market trades in the first hour and I highly doubt I will all day.
Do you have a basket of stocks that you pull from or do you grab whatever meets your screening criteria? Are you primarily a smaller-volume stock player?
Just curious as most of the tickers never pop up on my radar.
Thanks.
Just curious as most of the tickers never pop up on my radar.
Thanks.
Quote from sub0:
Livermore, Tudor Jones and Cohen are heroes in my book. I'd fight a grizzly bear just to spend the day picking their brains (if Livermore ws still around). Tudor Jones is an icon. I need to definitely take some time to research their styles of trading and what they've said.
My goal is to sing like Luciano Pavarotti .i will purchase all his
records and study them.
If that does not work out Tiger Woods is next ,I will study all his
tournaments and copy his swing
seriously its the same thing
cheers
john
Quote from Appleseed:
My goal is to sing like Luciano Pavarotti .i will purchase all his
records and study them.
If that does not work out Tiger Woods is next ,I will study all his
tournaments and copy his swing
seriously its the same thing
cheers
john
....quick tip, just study tiger wood's putting..forget about his swing.....
as for tudor and mob...focus on what they don't want to lose...not their profits...
Instead of listing each result individually I've decided to just assume equal weighting in all the pics and post a net % change each day.
Net % change off open
-.99%
Friday was a terrible day and I basically broke even on the week.
As a side note,
Try and think in terms of your net monthly returns and your annual returns. One day or even one week should not matter.
Net % change off open
-.99%
Friday was a terrible day and I basically broke even on the week.
As a side note,
Try and think in terms of your net monthly returns and your annual returns. One day or even one week should not matter.
I use several scans depending on market conditions and scan the entire market.
Thank you for the thread SO. I appreciate your time and effort. These are the kinds of threads that make ET enjoyable and instructional.
Iâm rather new to swing/position trading so my chart/trading ignorance would easily fill the new Dallas stadium. I say this so youâll have an understanding of my pitiful chart analysis and crying for help questions that follow.
Now then, this evening I placed your suggested longs in one group and shorts in another. My goal was to learn from them and attempt to create a few scans. Iâll discuss shorts first with a question or two.
On each chart I drew a big arrow to the setup day and they sure look like a breakout method of some kind. Most everything Iâve done to this point has been of the pullback variety so this is all new to me.
Close above $5: Noticed most of your picks are above $5 so Iâll start there (C>5)
Daily low or close: First thing I noticed was the daily low or close on the group was always lower than x number of previous days. Ran a quick scan of closes and they worked fine until I got to BDC (setup day is 10/29/09). I decided to use the daily Low.
Lock back: Many of your setup daily lows are the lowest low for 30 plus days â but the least was SSS with 4 and MOT with 6, so I started my with (L<MIN4.1). The setup day is always a down day so Iâll add (C<O).
Volume: All setup day volumes are greater than the previous day (V>V1) and they range from being over just 10.85% (FDO) to a high of 237.13% (GLBL) with an average of 92.02%. I decided to go with them being 40% greater than the previous day. It hits the vast majority of your picks (V>(V1*1.4)).
Volume > than 50 day moving average: Volume on the majority of your picks was greater than the 50 dsma but a few were just below. They ranged from a low of -12.25% (FDO) to a high of 472.08% (CCC) and an average of 86.45%. I went with a minus 10% and it gets most all your picks (V>(AVGV50*.9)).
Close as a % from Low: Your closes ranged from 0 (OHI) to a high of 58.33% (KIM) with an average of 15.66%. I went with 30% ((C-L)/(H-L)<.3)
This basic scan hits all but a few of your shorts. I also noticed that a number of your picks crossed at one or two of the most watched simple moving averages (20, 50 and 200). So another scan included the above and this additional scan: (O>AVGC20ANDC<AVGC20)OR (O>AVGC50ANDC<AVGC50)OR(O>AVGC200ANDC<AVGC200).
I know these are all the simple visual things to create the beginning scan. Perhaps you can add an item or two (openly or in pm). Once youâve run your scan and have a group of stocks, can I assume you then visually look for past S/R or various patterns? I have not studied too much S/R but some of the charts seem to break nearby support and go on to do well. And, some of the picks donât break nearby support but they too go on to do well. Hmmmm
For fun, I just ran the above scan against the current SP500 for 2000 days and shorted the next day (buy the open and sell the close) simply to see if the next day was also a down day. There were 24,937 setups and 12,070 were down days (48.4%) and 12,867 were up days (51.6%) As Iâm looking for a high âDirectionalâ bias, there is much to learn.
My scan for tomorrow is:
ACCL,ALSK,AMED,BAGL,COGT,CVCY,DM,ENX,ERIC,GBCI,GOK,GVP,HFBC,HSTX,LXU,MYRG,NAVG,NFSB,OKSB,PBNY,PHI,RHO,RNY,RRGB,SAPE,SENA,SGG,SMTB,SNSTA,SUN,TPC,TRP,VLO,VXZ
Thanks again I do enjoy your thread.
Iâm rather new to swing/position trading so my chart/trading ignorance would easily fill the new Dallas stadium. I say this so youâll have an understanding of my pitiful chart analysis and crying for help questions that follow.
Now then, this evening I placed your suggested longs in one group and shorts in another. My goal was to learn from them and attempt to create a few scans. Iâll discuss shorts first with a question or two.
On each chart I drew a big arrow to the setup day and they sure look like a breakout method of some kind. Most everything Iâve done to this point has been of the pullback variety so this is all new to me.
Close above $5: Noticed most of your picks are above $5 so Iâll start there (C>5)
Daily low or close: First thing I noticed was the daily low or close on the group was always lower than x number of previous days. Ran a quick scan of closes and they worked fine until I got to BDC (setup day is 10/29/09). I decided to use the daily Low.
Lock back: Many of your setup daily lows are the lowest low for 30 plus days â but the least was SSS with 4 and MOT with 6, so I started my with (L<MIN4.1). The setup day is always a down day so Iâll add (C<O).
Volume: All setup day volumes are greater than the previous day (V>V1) and they range from being over just 10.85% (FDO) to a high of 237.13% (GLBL) with an average of 92.02%. I decided to go with them being 40% greater than the previous day. It hits the vast majority of your picks (V>(V1*1.4)).
Volume > than 50 day moving average: Volume on the majority of your picks was greater than the 50 dsma but a few were just below. They ranged from a low of -12.25% (FDO) to a high of 472.08% (CCC) and an average of 86.45%. I went with a minus 10% and it gets most all your picks (V>(AVGV50*.9)).
Close as a % from Low: Your closes ranged from 0 (OHI) to a high of 58.33% (KIM) with an average of 15.66%. I went with 30% ((C-L)/(H-L)<.3)
This basic scan hits all but a few of your shorts. I also noticed that a number of your picks crossed at one or two of the most watched simple moving averages (20, 50 and 200). So another scan included the above and this additional scan: (O>AVGC20ANDC<AVGC20)OR (O>AVGC50ANDC<AVGC50)OR(O>AVGC200ANDC<AVGC200).
I know these are all the simple visual things to create the beginning scan. Perhaps you can add an item or two (openly or in pm). Once youâve run your scan and have a group of stocks, can I assume you then visually look for past S/R or various patterns? I have not studied too much S/R but some of the charts seem to break nearby support and go on to do well. And, some of the picks donât break nearby support but they too go on to do well. Hmmmm
For fun, I just ran the above scan against the current SP500 for 2000 days and shorted the next day (buy the open and sell the close) simply to see if the next day was also a down day. There were 24,937 setups and 12,070 were down days (48.4%) and 12,867 were up days (51.6%) As Iâm looking for a high âDirectionalâ bias, there is much to learn.
My scan for tomorrow is:
ACCL,ALSK,AMED,BAGL,COGT,CVCY,DM,ENX,ERIC,GBCI,GOK,GVP,HFBC,HSTX,LXU,MYRG,NAVG,NFSB,OKSB,PBNY,PHI,RHO,RNY,RRGB,SAPE,SENA,SGG,SMTB,SNSTA,SUN,TPC,TRP,VLO,VXZ
Thanks again I do enjoy your thread.
^^^
Congratulations your on your way to becoming a quant. lol
Seriously though, the market is constantly changing. Sometimes it does one thing for a few days and sometimes it does another thing for a few months and then there are times where it's just complete chaos.
What this means to us is there will be periods where break outs will work very well, then there will be periods where pullbacks work very well and then there will be periods where range trading works very well and more often then not there are periods where we should be not trade at all (this is why all my trades start out as day trades).
Our job is to figure out what the market is doing right now (today) find the appropriate strategy that fits today's conditions, then go and scan the market for stocks that will benefit IF today's conditions don't change.
In order to do this a trader needs a deep understanding of all market conditions and a way to quantify it and categorize it, so that when it's happening he / she will know what is going on and when it's no longer happening and when a new market condition has taken hold.
So I suggest rather then studying each trade, study what type of trade they are and then ask yourself what market condition would this type of trade be best suited for.
I apologize if this is vague but it's early in the morning and like I said to another poster, It's extremely difficult to explain 28 years of my trading career into a page or two of words.
I've mentored 2 people since the start of this year and It's taken 6-8 months for them to learn enough to just break even.
Congratulations your on your way to becoming a quant. lol
Seriously though, the market is constantly changing. Sometimes it does one thing for a few days and sometimes it does another thing for a few months and then there are times where it's just complete chaos.
What this means to us is there will be periods where break outs will work very well, then there will be periods where pullbacks work very well and then there will be periods where range trading works very well and more often then not there are periods where we should be not trade at all (this is why all my trades start out as day trades).
Our job is to figure out what the market is doing right now (today) find the appropriate strategy that fits today's conditions, then go and scan the market for stocks that will benefit IF today's conditions don't change.
In order to do this a trader needs a deep understanding of all market conditions and a way to quantify it and categorize it, so that when it's happening he / she will know what is going on and when it's no longer happening and when a new market condition has taken hold.
So I suggest rather then studying each trade, study what type of trade they are and then ask yourself what market condition would this type of trade be best suited for.
I apologize if this is vague but it's early in the morning and like I said to another poster, It's extremely difficult to explain 28 years of my trading career into a page or two of words.
I've mentored 2 people since the start of this year and It's taken 6-8 months for them to learn enough to just break even.
Long Candidates:
ARST
Short Candidates:
SAPE
RMD
DJP
I like any short trades that set up on the SPY around 108 ish and may just trade the etf itself.
ARST
Short Candidates:
SAPE
RMD
DJP
I like any short trades that set up on the SPY around 108 ish and may just trade the etf itself.