LiveFX Trades/Setups

I got through the chop of yesterday and the false break down for EUR/USD rallying as high as 1.2130 after word of surprising unanimity from key members of the UN Security council, including China and Russia, to refer Iran to the Security Council for potential sanctions.

There was mixed European economic data and US data will be overshadowed by this afternoon"s FOMC (Greenspan's last).

Quarterly employment cost index s due for release at 8:30 EST. It is expected to rise 0.9%. At 15:00 GMT,
Consumer confidence (104.8) and Chicago PMI (60.0) at 10.00 EST.

Key is whether EUR holds the 1.2116- 1.2130 zone as it is 38% of the recent downdraft. Topside we have 1.2146 MM 8-8 and 1.2162 MM + 2-8

Failure here sees this as a spit of the 200mm and a move towards the 1.2107 area and 1.2092

Expect thin volumes and also I will be flat around the 10 am numbers (and of course the Fed)
 
Have jsut shorted the Euro at 1.2115 after has spat the 20 and the 200 ma and 38% Fib.

50 ma ia at 1.2112 break there sees target at 1.2100 then 1.2084 (0-8)

Stop is 1.2124 bid - says this is all consolidation towards earlirt resistance.

Very Slow day - don't force trades.

Remember will be flat before 10.00 numbers
 
Quote from billyhunt:

Stopped out at 1.2124 - would not break the 50 ma
More...

Haven't done anymore trades as the snooze ahead of Fed and Alito kicks in

One trade was the reversal to go long Euro - didn't do with all the news and politics today - should be plenty of work this afternoon
 
In a unanimous decision, the FOMC voted to lift the Fed funds rate to 4.50% and the Primary Credit (discount) Rate to 5.50%. The statement comes across as dovish. FOMC dropped the ubiquitous "measured" phrase, the Committee sees a solid but uneven economic expansion but sees use rates of factor inputs as inflation risks.

"some further policy firming may be needed."

US$ got sold off - one trade there sold at 1.2158 covering at 200 (80/20) at 1.2133. Tried bounce at 1.2128 out at 1.2134

Trading this in Murrey grid and today's short covering rally looking like a completed C key is 1.2104 now note room on 240 MM Grid

Will update when slows down swing trades
 
Didn't trade for much of mid morning as I waited for FOMC to roll on by - hence missed the big surge Nevertheless a decent day with a few post FOMC set ups.

State of the Union tonight and API numbers tomorrow the highlight

Time Instrument Type Symbol Entry Stop Exit Profit/Loss Trade Basis

01/31/2006 03:56pm Forex Cover EUR/USD 1.2162 1.2153 1.2148 0.0014 Fulcrum Spit (F)
01/31/2006 02:56pm Forex Cover USD/JPY 117.42 117.35 117.35 0.07 Trailing Stop
01/31/2006 02:32pm Forex Sell EUR/USD 1.2128 1.2128 1.2134 0.0006 Trailing Stop
01/31/2006 02:28pm Forex Cover EUR/USD 1.2158 1.2146 1.2133 0.0025 Breakup level
01/31/2006 12:42pm Forex Cover EUR/USD 1.2182 1.2186 1.2176 0.0006 Trailing Stop
01/31/2006 12:20pm Forex Cover EUR/USD 1.2161 1.2165 1.2165 -0.0004 No Impulse Down
01/31/2006 09:51am Forex Cover EUR/USD 1.2115 1.2124 1.2124 -0.0009 Trailing Stop
 
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