So this is the situation as I see it:
Beef production running above last year
Cutout prices 12% higher than last year
Summer/Fall futures in the mid high 90's versus 80's
The only thing I can factor in is that feedlots are running thin placements b/c of worries of cost of gain b/c of corn and replacement feeders are scarce.
Winter also put a crimp on market ready supplies as the cold made weight gain more burdensome for cattle.
But - placements for last month were above expectations as high live cattle prices spurred putting animals on feed and b/c corn was basically flat to down.
Now, corn selling off 50 cents plus should spur more purchases of feeders and hence increase placements into feedlots.
All in I see higher placements, more market ready supplies and lower live cattle prices going into summer and fall.
So; why do we have cattle futures in the high 90's ?
Beef production running above last year
Cutout prices 12% higher than last year
Summer/Fall futures in the mid high 90's versus 80's
The only thing I can factor in is that feedlots are running thin placements b/c of worries of cost of gain b/c of corn and replacement feeders are scarce.
Winter also put a crimp on market ready supplies as the cold made weight gain more burdensome for cattle.
But - placements for last month were above expectations as high live cattle prices spurred putting animals on feed and b/c corn was basically flat to down.
Now, corn selling off 50 cents plus should spur more purchases of feeders and hence increase placements into feedlots.
All in I see higher placements, more market ready supplies and lower live cattle prices going into summer and fall.
So; why do we have cattle futures in the high 90's ?