Live Cattle

Quote from romik:

I had a look at the corresponding charts and I must admit did not see your usual criteria present. Could you maybe explain your reasoning here, thanks.
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Attached is the daily Dec 06 Cattle Contract. Feel free to comment or ask questions. Thanks
 

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Quote from romik:

I had a look at the corresponding charts and I must admit did not see your usual criteria present. Could you maybe explain your reasoning here, thanks.
More...

Attached is the weekly without my analysis on it. By the way, I am late to the party, as I wasn't watching it closely. We'll probably bounce for a while before I am rewarded, although today's close was .8705, so a good start.
 

Attachments

thanks for the charts, I think I was confused by your late entry, as normally you would have entered earlier, perhaps when there was a BRD on daily there and also present on weekly. I see now.
 
Quote from romik:

thanks for the charts, I think I was confused by your late entry, as normally you would have entered earlier, perhaps when there was a BRD on daily there and also present on weekly. I see now.
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I am entering very late. However, my experience with cattle futures is that they trend as well or better than almost any other future and so late may still be good (or great) We'll see!!
 
We had a little more weakness today. I see no reason to get out yet. This downmove could be as much as 20 cents when all is said and done. We'll see.
 
Grettings b1s2. Hope all is well with you.

I received this message today from an unknown broker of one the mayor houses.

I was wondering what your thoughts or comments would be.

:)

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"The 800 Pound Live Cattle Gorilla

Well that time of the month is nearing in the cattle futures pit once again. That’s right sport fan it’s the big bad Goldman roll.

I will be looking for the roll to begin in live cattle futures around the middle of next week. That’s the 7th or 8th of November in case you don’t have a calendar handy. Usually the Goldman roll is a 4 to 5 day affair.

So as traders how can we take advantage of the Goldman roll this month?

Below is one idea you may want to consider in CME Live Cattle Futures:

Long December 2006 Live Cattle / Short February 2007 Live Cattle.

Look to initiate this spread from (-2.75) through (-3.50). It can get ugly on the settle at times, so to trade this spread you must have the fortitude to withstand these “distorted” settlement prices.

This spread settled today, (I’m writing this on Monday October 30, 2006), at (-2.83 ).

December settled at 88.67
February settled at: 91.50
Spread = (-) 2.83 under

Historically speaking, during strong years this spread has traded as high as around +0.75 over. If you were to look at all years combined this spread averages around (-) 1.00 under. Based on this fact alone the current Long December / Short February spread can be initiated at “fire sale” prices."


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Quote from optionpro007:

Grettings b1s2. Hope all is well with you.

I received this message today from an unknown broker of one the mayor houses.

I was wondering what your thoughts or comments would be.

:)

***************

"The 800 Pound Live Cattle Gorilla

Well that time of the month is nearing in the cattle futures pit once again. That’s right sport fan it’s the big bad Goldman roll.

I will be looking for the roll to begin in live cattle futures around the middle of next week. That’s the 7th or 8th of November in case you don’t have a calendar handy. Usually the Goldman roll is a 4 to 5 day affair.

So as traders how can we take advantage of the Goldman roll this month?

Below is one idea you may want to consider in CME Live Cattle Futures:

Long December 2006 Live Cattle / Short February 2007 Live Cattle.

Look to initiate this spread from (-2.75) through (-3.50). It can get ugly on the settle at times, so to trade this spread you must have the fortitude to withstand these “distorted” settlement prices.

This spread settled today, (I’m writing this on Monday October 30, 2006), at (-2.83 ).

December settled at 88.67
February settled at: 91.50
Spread = (-) 2.83 under

Historically speaking, during strong years this spread has traded as high as around +0.75 over. If you were to look at all years combined this spread averages around (-) 1.00 under. Based on this fact alone the current Long December / Short February spread can be initiated at “fire sale” prices."


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Some of the best spread trading occurs in the cattle and hogs. Fairly reliable every year. I have gotten away from spreads because although the percentage of wins is high, the profit gets choked off. Right now, I am still short Dec Cattle. I will let the chart tell me if I am wrong. I will disregard the Goldman Roll.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Some of the best spread trading occurs in the cattle and hogs. Fairly reliable every year. I have gotten away from spreads because although the percentage of wins is high, the profit gets choked off. Right now, I am still short Dec Cattle. I will let the chart tell me if I am wrong. I will disregard the Goldman Roll.
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Thanks. Spread trading is something that hasn't caught my attention...yet, but was interested in your opinion. I doubt it very much that I will ever get involved in this type of trading either.

Good luck with your cattle position.

:)
 
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