Live Cattle - Top ?

Handle123 said:
Used five minute bars on 13th to find best place to liquidate options but lost 0.95 on the Dec 172 and 0.70 on Dec 174. So entry was 169.25 minus 1.65 is 167.60, Protective stops go in ten minutes after market opens at 167.525. First target is 12 points.
More...
Made a nickel overall on trade. Will start tomorrow looking for new contract highs to sell again.
 
December is the strongest month right now......it's not too far from all-time highs.
Not sure if this is the time to sell.....we could get a "blow-off" top in here as that last dip was bought pretty intensely.
 
Yep, break-outs can be wickedly fast and violent. Still, one popular strategy is to fade the breakout AFTER it occurs....thus looking for an "FBO" or False Break Out.
27k contracts traded today...wow ! Everyone is "in".
 
Good thing about having a Trading Plan are rules within trading plan, so long of course you do them and I don't believe in fundamentals. This is certainly not best way to trade long term if one is a trend trader, starting is always counter-trend, so it just comes down to management of risk. Am short Feeders and this market didn't make new highs as Live Cattle. I went short on new all time highs and watched chart looking for exhaustion pattern, got short Dec 169.625 ave and did debit spread this time of dec Calls 171/174 at plus 1.00 difference. If Tuesdays' low is broken will liquidate Long 171 and keep the short Call 174, will be watching intraday charts. Upon liquidation of 171 call, protective stop will be entry price minus loss on option. If call 174 loss equals closed out lose of 171, will liquidate and more protective stop up to 169.575 I did a number of commodity spreads today as well within Live Cattle and Live Cattle and Feeders.
 

Attachments

  • live cattle-Futures-Oct 21-2014.png
    live cattle-Futures-Oct 21-2014.png
    38.7 KB · Views: 69
Wow - nice chart....what a rock 'n roll day it was in cattle. The market is really "testing" the strength at these high prices.
Re: your options hedges. I understand they protect you, but to me, they appear to really adversely impact the profit on the actual futures trade. No ?
 
Back up we go.....both Sept and Dec contracts equally strong today.
Also, the severe backwardation does not appear to be correcting itself very much.
 
Wow, look at that 15 minute sell-off. My question is to what extent are the funds playing games with this market. I have looked at the Commitment of traders, but can't really glean what is going on w/ their positioning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top