Live Cattle - Top ?

Maverick74 said:
I'm curious, what are you using as your catalyst to get short? I don't see any weakness. But that is just my opinion and I'm wrong a lot. Is there something specifically you are waiting to see that will make you get short?
More...
Specifically: reactions to reports like this.
http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle_inventory_declines_NAA_University_News_Release/
In addition: price action and price levels. The question is how high can this go for prices to begin to affect demand ? 160, 170, 200 ?
Of course, this fact does not provide much comfort for the bears:
"This will be the smallest calf crop weaned in at least 54 years.
As a result, supplies of calves will remain very tight for at least another year."
More...
This could be a trading affair until the inventory report on Jan 1st, 2015.
 
syswizard said:
Specifically: reactions to reports like this.
http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle_inventory_declines_NAA_University_News_Release/
In addition: price action and price levels. The question is how high can this go for prices to begin to affect demand ? 160, 170, 200 ?
Of course, this fact does not provide much comfort for the bears:

This could be a trading affair until the inventory report on Jan 1st, 2015.
More...

OK fair enough. I'm just curious what will finally get you to pull the trigger. Fundamentals are best traded via spreads, not outrights. Technically I can't find anything weak about this. Just curious what I might have been over looking.
 
Maverick74 said:
Technically I can't find anything weak about this. Just curious what I might have been over looking.
More...
Nothing....and I agree with you on the technicals. It's the fundies that I am looking at...with an emphasis on demand for beef:
1) weakening retail demand due to $10+/lb steaks.
2) consumer switch to cheaper alternatives (pork, chicken, etc).
3) El Pollo Loco effect - everyone moving to healthier, lower-fat alternatives

The big money is always made if you are correct on the fundies and you time it right technically. As long as 160 is not breached upside on the next up-move, then that could be the time to short it.
 
Big pressure on the front months this morning.....reducing that steep backwardation.
Where's the short term bottom here for October: 150 ?
 
Might as well cancel that bull swing call for now. LOL, this thing is clearly rushing down. It might go to the original lower price I thought before.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top