It takes more than just luck, its takes the science of economics and law of supply and demand.
Agree. And right now the supply is obviously far greater than the demand for Litecoin hence it's not too off its all time lows against BTC.
But if you think Crypto is like the stockmarket where many competing coins are viable, stick to that thesis until proven wrong (which may or may not happen).
But your analysis seems more hope to me than substance. Yes, you might be right, but it's far better/safer/less risky to buy on a proper rising market with momentum/wind behind you (at much higher prices) than attempt a hero trade which is attempting to buy the low in a tenacious bear market.