Listen carefully ladies

Quote from Maverick74:

RCG, I hope you are a better trader then poltical prognosticator. LOL. I love Paul but he has no chance. Zero. Less then zero actually if that's possible.

I've said it before and I will say it again. The dark horse candidate is Jon Huntsman Jr. Huntsman would kill Obama in a general. He's about a 50 delta in a primary though, for now.
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I already laid it out for AAA earlier in the years. Obama wins a second term. Here's why.

The pub candidates are a motley crew. Their best guy is Romney, and the GOP will wind up getting behind him, as they fear the unknown, which would be the Tea Party wing of the GOP. But Romney care is going to be a problem for him. Their next best bet is Bachmann, but women don't like women candidates, so they will pull a Hillary on her if they must and sink her.

After that, it's downhill fast.

Newt has already pissed off the GOP and he hasn't been out there a week yet.

Pawlenty? Who is that?

Herman Cain, Adam West, well let just say I don't think they can carry the South.

So it's Romney. That's if the GOP right does not do too much damage to him.
 
Quote from RCG Trader:

I already laid it out for AAA earlier in the years. Obama wins a second term. Here's why.

The pub candidates are a motley crew. Their best guy is Romney, and the GOP will wind up getting behind him, as they fear the unknown, which would be the Tea Party wing of the GOP. But Romney care is going to be a problem for him. Their next best bet is Bachmann, but women don't like women candidates, so they will pull a Hillary on her if they must and sink her.

After that, it's downhill fast.

Newt has already pissed off the GOP and he hasn't been out there a week yet.

Pawlenty? Who is that?

Herman Cain, Adam West, well let just say I don't think they can carry the South.

So it's Romney. That's if the GOP right does not do too much damage to him.
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RCG, I'm going to give you a pass for now and assume you are not a student of political history because if you were, you would know that no incumbent has ever won re-election with unemployment over 8% give or take a few ticks. It's very simple, that number is going to determine the election. If it gets back down to the 7's, Obama should win no matter who the right puts up there. If it's over 8%, there is not a snowball's chance in hell Obama wins. I'm a trader RCG, I go with the numbers.

BTW, Romney has no chance in the primary. The list you gave is very off. I take it you don't watch a lot of news shows. So I'll do you a favor, the top two guys right now are Huntsman and Daniels. You mentioned neither. That's OK. I'm a nice guy, I'll give you another pass. Just write that down. We'll revisit this thread 6 months from now.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

RCG, I'm going to give you a pass for now and assume you are not a student of political history because if you were, you would know that no incumbent has ever won re-election with unemployment over 8% give or take a few ticks. It's very simple, that number is going to determine the election. If it gets back down to the 7's, Obama should win no matter who the right puts up there. If it's over 8%, there is not a snowball's chance in hell Obama wins.
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I would normally agree with a stat like that, but this time might actually "be different".

Unfortunately, a large majority of Obama's voting base isn't interested in having a job. They are very happy with their welfare checks, food stamps, and government housing.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

RCG, I'm going to give you a pass for now and assume you are not a student of political history because if you were, you would know that no incumbent has ever won re-election with unemployment over 8% give or take a few ticks. It's very simple, that number is going to determine the election. If it gets back down to the 7's, Obama should win no matter who the right puts up there. If it's over 8%, there is not a snowball's chance in hell Obama wins. I'm a trader RCG, I go with the numbers.

BTW, Romney has no chance in the primary. The list you gave is very off. I take it you don't watch a lot of news shows. So I'll do you a favor, the top two guys right now are Huntsman and Daniels. You mentioned neither. That's OK. I'm a nice guy, I'll give you another pass. Just write that down. We'll revisit this thread 6 months from now.
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Since World War II, no president or incumbent party has won re-election in a presidential race when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.5 percent. The current rate officially is 9 percent, and if those who have given up looking for a job are included, it is actually around 10 percent; almost no expert thinks it will drop sharply in the next year and a half.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/us/07iht-letter07.html
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Since World War II, no president or incumbent party has won re-election in a presidential race when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.5 percent. The current rate officially is 9 percent, and if those who have given up looking for a job are included, it is actually around 10 percent; almost no expert thinks it will drop sharply in the next year and a half.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/us/07iht-letter07.html
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I sure hope you're right, this is an ominous statistice for BO to overcome. However...
Quote from Clubber Lang:
I would normally agree with a stat like that, but this time might actually "be different".Unfortunately, a large majority of Obama's voting base isn't interested in having a job. They are very happy with their welfare checks, food stamps, and government housing.
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...Clubber Lang does have a point.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Since World War II, no president or incumbent party has won re-election in a presidential race when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.5 percent. The current rate officially is 9 percent, and if those who have given up looking for a job are included, it is actually around 10 percent; almost no expert thinks it will drop sharply in the next year and a half.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/us/07iht-letter07.html
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What 16 elections, is that right. how many times was the unemployment rate over 7.5% in those elections? I don't think there are enough samples to make that statistic mean much. I don't think 7.5 means much more than saying 7.0 or 7.75 or 6.75 or 8.0.
The higher the unemployment rate the worse it is for Obama.
 
Quote from bigarrow:

What 16 elections, is that right. how many times was the unemployment rate over 7.5% in those elections? I don't think there are enough samples to make that statistic mean much. I don't think 7.5 means much more than saying 7.0 or 7.75 or 6.75 or 8.0.
The higher the unemployment rate the worse it is for Obama.
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True. Let me put it another way. The last three Presidents (GHB, Carter and Ford) who had unemployment over 7.5% not only lost, but got absolutely killed in their re-elections. It matters.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

True. Let me put it another way. The last three Presidents (GHB, Carter and Ford) who had unemployment over 7.5% not only lost, but got absolutely killed in their re-elections. It matters.
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Huge differences between GHB,Carter and Ford

GHB had a conservative running 3rd party as well as an extremely charismatic opponent

Carter didn't have the political strengths of Obama,Obama doesn't have the baggage Carter had and republicans had a strong republican candidate

Ford was never elected the first time and probably would have never been elected

Umemployment can be at 10 % and Obama still wins against the current GOP Jokes
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Huge differences between GHB,Carter and Ford

GHB had a conservative running 3rd party as well as an extremely charismatic opponent

Carter didn't have the political strengths of Obama,Obama doesn't have the baggage Carter had and republicans had a strong republican candidate

Ford was never elected the first time and probably would have never been elected

Umemployment can be at 10 % and Obama still wins against the current GOP Jokes
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Wow, you really are clueless. The only reason Perot ran is BECAUSE unemployment was over 7.5%!!!! If the economy were strong he wouldn't have run. Duh!

Carter didn't have the same political strengths as Obama? Like what, reading a teleprompter? Dude, he negotiated a middle east peace agreement—the Camp David Accords—between longtime enemies Egypt and Israel, leading to the 1979 Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty. LOL. Meanwhile Obama is sending unmanned drones into Afghanistan and killing innocent civilians.

Your knowledge of political history is embarrassing. You're a lightweight. Go back and play with your college buddies Range Rover.
 
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