Limit Down in ES ?!

Quote from NoProblem:

Unless buyers come back before open, expect a nice gap down..........anyone's guess after that.

Stops get tripped, margin calls means more selling - then?

Look at the sellers vs buyers below.

Steve
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you might want to widen your stop! :)
 
Quote from gangof4:

you might want to widen your stop! :)
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ha ha

I got up this morning and it was already limit down - no position here.

I don't know why the bids are sitting there - - must be nuts?
 
Quote from NoProblem:

I don't know why the bids are sitting there - - must be nuts?
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That was my earlier point - if you want to buy the opening (or cover a short) then you should place an order well below the lock limit, just look at where SPY is trading to get a feel of where ES would be without the lock. Bidding 855.00 is stupid.
 
Quote from Aaron Copland:

Good point, watch the USDJPY is has been trading in lock step with the Dow. Check out a chart overlay.
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That is the result of unwinding of the "carry trade" - due to near zero interest rates in Japan, in the 'good old days" big players borrowed in Japan, sold yen bought USD or EUR then played in international/commods markets. Now the opposite is happening. Unwinding their positions, thus going to cash - be it EUR USD - then buying JPY. So to complete the circle .... selling stocks (markets down) buying yen (strong yen). On the yen side, you also have locals, selling their international holdings, and also going back to yen.

fwiw
 
Quote from Susannah:

When does the limit down end? Between 8-8:30 Chicago time right, but exactly when?
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When the day session begins, 8:30am Chicago time. ES will gap down to -75 at the bell. We'll see what happens from there.
 
Quote from sibrag:

That is the result of unwinding of the "carry trade" - due to near zero interest rates in Japan, in the 'good old days" big players borrowed in Japan, sold yen bought USD or EUR then played in international/commods markets. Now the opposite is happening. Unwinding their positions, thus going to cash - be it EUR USD - then buying JPY. So to complete the circle .... selling stocks (markets down) buying yen (strong yen). On the yen side, you also have locals, selling their international holdings, and also going back to yen.

fwiw
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this is the best definition of the carry trade I've seen. Thank you.

Is it too long to go long Yen as a hedge?
I'm currently short euro and long dollar but those aren't moving as fast as the Yen.

I wish I had known about this carry trade many months ago. It's fascinating.
 
Quote from Ticktaker:

When the day session begins, 8:30am Chicago time. ES will gap down to -75 at the bell. We'll see what happens from there.
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75 seems about right - right near the previous low.

Keep an eye on SPY (Still trading)
 
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