Keep in mind that Delta essentially is the markets consensus of the percentage chance that the price will exceed that point at expiration (absent a couple second order effects that would take some time to cover). So if the Delta on your Jan 19 $325 call is .05, it means the market is giving it a 5% chance that the price will be over $325. If you think the percentage is different, then you're making a bet that the market consensus is incorrect, and some of the expertise in this thread may very well be able to make that kind of determination. But hopefully it's helpful to be able to put an actual percentage number on the market consensus rather than thinking of it in the abstract.
likelihood after nvda reaching 325$ or beyond Jan 2019
- Thread starter ggelitetrader000
- Start date
i think AMD is cursed it needs its prince to get rid of its spell.
Thanks. I put it on my buy list.
@TrustyJules and @ggelitetrader000 both of you have good and solid views on Nvidia. There is however one aspect one should be careful about. The expected ramp-up of self-driving cars, needing a lot of camera's, image recognition software and processing power. Such a ramp-up will not go as fast as the ramp-up of a new consumer goods. Innovation ramp-ups in the automotive sector tend to be spread out over a rather long time, sometimes up to a decade. Automotive related innovations are often initially overhyped. And thus will the positive impact on Nvidia's revenue stream be limited during that initial decade, in my view.
@HobbyTrading I would agree on the hype. Fortunately there is also an increasing amount of graphics chips required in cars as is. Tesla led the way there with their gigantic screens inside the car. Then various assisted driving aspects come into play. NVDIA is in there and its a market that wasnt there before so its really a good growth driver away from the saturated traditional market.
That is definitely a worrying point. I will probably hold on to nvidia only for this year and probably sell it. But there has been always been a gravity defying companies like msft, goog, amz for years. If only nvidia is like 'em.
I agree with you that the automotive market size will increase. And the benefit of that market is: once you're in, you're in it for the long haul. Unless you make a very big mess of your business and screw it up completely (which I don't expect from a company like Nvidia). It is only that the ramp up rate is always very slow in automotive, compared to consumer applications. Which is mostly overlooked by the press and financial analysts.
what do you think of this serious article?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/01/nvidia-and-amd-are-losing-gamers-to-cryptocurrency.aspx
It says crypto people are gouging the price and angering gamers. Now gamers might flee to xbox or something else. That is bad for both nvidia and amd as revenue from crypto is unstable whereas gamers revenue is much larger and established.
There is a mentioning of supply constraint of nvidia and amd hardware manufacturers at taiwan and china where the chip manufacturing happens because they got bogged down.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/01/nvidia-and-amd-are-losing-gamers-to-cryptocurrency.aspx
It says crypto people are gouging the price and angering gamers. Now gamers might flee to xbox or something else. That is bad for both nvidia and amd as revenue from crypto is unstable whereas gamers revenue is much larger and established.
There is a mentioning of supply constraint of nvidia and amd hardware manufacturers at taiwan and china where the chip manufacturing happens because they got bogged down.
First of all: it is not uncommon in the chip industry that a period of shortage of certain types of chips occur. It takes three months to manufacture chips, from start to end, and production planning often needs to be done about one year before actual chip delivery is going to take place. Mistakes in market forecasts can happen and result in temporary shortages. I don't know whether NVIDIA and AMD use their own manufacturing facilities for these GPU's, or that they outsource a lot of it to TSMC. Anyway, capacity planning at these factories need to be taken into account (which in some cases mean that a market forecast must be given 1 ~ 2 years ahead, if additional investments in equipment are needed). In the case of GPUs does the story get more complicated as these chips are not sold as chips, but mounted on a printed circuit board. This is all outsourced by NVIDIA and AMD. Capacity constraints at those manufacturers can amplify a temporary shortage in assembled boards. Hopefully now you understand why period of shortages do occur in the chips industry.
What surprises me is that both NVIDIA and AMD blame the crypto-currency mining customers for the shortage. Even though that market is so much smaller than the game console market. 3% for crypto related business, 59% for gaming related business. Really? They don't have 3% production capacity margin available? It sounds to me that the crypto market is an easy scapegoat to put the blame on.
yes but you may account that crypto-s buying by multiples. one rig has 4-8 gpu-s. Plus how do you count the person is buying for crypto or game. No way to know. Only clear thing is yes severe shortage and price gouging. ouch.