Like i said the rally has been much much more amazing than the decline was

[1957may10]

Finally broke 3000 and am surprised not more 3day bear pullbacks during recent run.

I still think that a major selloff is possible soon. If so it'll likely be hard with cb halts etc

But in the meantime I trade what I see like TNA PENN CGC etc in addition to inverses which have been terrible lately

I may take it if trade war restarted. Hope Trump will penalize China but different way. Hope he is smart to delay the battle till US economy sick.
Other hand bad 2nd quarter will be (already) counted by market.
States are opening. What could be worse than we passed through.
Please, make your point why do you think about market double deep.

 

[schizo]

I can make a case that we were in an 11 year super bull and a 20-30% decline was just a normal occurrence . The world stopped and debt levels have exploded $5-$10 trillion and tons of Bk's to come yet the mkt's back to levels of last sept like nothing happened leaves one speechless .This has no bearing on my trading but i'm fascinated how easily anything bad is discarded and has been for decades . I really thought this time the piper would finally be paid and it still might be but its looking like the lows of 2176 will be super hard to hit

We're very near the top. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Report back in 3 months (08/26/2020). I'm certain we'll be in a very different world by then.

 

[systematictrader]

My theory is that at this point, it is all about the USD.........15 years ago, if you would have told me that the Fed would be printing this much money & the US govt would be running 5% budget deficits, I would have guessed that EUR/USD would be trading at 2.25, Gold would be at $3,000, and US 10 year yields would be north of 8%.

Yet here we are.....I expect this fiscal/monetary insanity to continue and get worse until the rest of the world screams out ENOUGH, and decides to do something to upend the USDs status as global reserve currency. If that moment happens, things will quickly adjust to reality, and the US will likely default on it's obligations.

But if that moment never comes, then I expect things get to get much more insane over the next 10 years both monetarily and fiscally in the United States.

You think this will happen in our life time? Spains empire took hundreds of years to decline, Braitins even longer, and were only a 100 some years old empire, basically a baby one, The roman one even span 500 years depends how you look at it, Thus you think we will see this in our life time?

 

[systematictrader]

The best part is that the rally might have just begun. In the late 90s, Fed panic over the EM crises and Y2K arguably caused the dotcom blowoff. Corona might have the same effect this time around, with a much greater magnitude.

Nutty? Sure, but now consider that this rally is even more hated than 2010-19, institutional players are heavily bearish having puked at the lows, while the Fed is now trapped into keeping the money printer running full blast. The only stumbling block I see is the election, but a consolidation through year-end would set up a massive rally for 2021.

They are bearish now after the drop, but at the top they will be bullish, its not like the institutional players are exempt from making mistakes or always right

 

[systematictrader]

Some pundits on various sites keep talking about the inevitable inflation. Prices on commercial real estate are falling, same with cars new and used, etc. Where will the inflation be? Pundits, it is already here, in the form of radically higher stock prices than in March! All that money being created out of thin air, combined with the policies of various Central Banks, has created an inflated market that is quite detached from the economic slog ahead of nations. The one percent front-ran the Fed once again, knowing the inevitable, at least for a time ...

Although the odds may be against it, I am not completely convinced the lows will not be revisited, because we live in an incredibly complex and unstable environment. US-China tensions could explode, what if something happens to Trump, health-wise, or other wise. Part of my education was a professional degree in international policy, and I have seen some strange things over the years. Events have already happened in this bizarre year of 2020 that have made my head spin, and plenty of the year is left. As the saying goes:"May you live in interesting times."

I agree, its the same shit over and over, i think jokingly the reason traders take years to learn is because they learn to spot how the magicians repeat the same trick over and over and after a while you realize its simple, rather than so much skills and knowledge etc etc

I was just looking at SPY chart how the bottom stopped after few days of breaking the late 2018 bottom, identical to the 2009 bottom rebounded upwards after breaking the 2002 bottom. The point is, these pundits always repeat the same story since 100 years, the only thing they get is a "new crowd" Like a Las Vegas show, same show, different crowd.

 

[ElCubano]

Welcome back Dozu

 

[kashirin]

You think this will happen in our life time? Spains empire took hundreds of years to decline, Braitins even longer, and were only a 100 some years old empire, basically a baby one, The roman one even span 500 years depends how you look at it, Thus you think we will see this in our life time?

Things happen faster now. Previous bear market continued for years. Current was less than a month

 

[David's faith]

Things happen faster now. Previous bear market continued for years. Current was less than a month

2018...

 

[1957may10]

I can make a case that we were in an 11 year super bull and a 20-30% decline was just a normal occurrence . The world stopped and debt levels have exploded $5-$10 trillion and tons of Bk's to come yet the mkt's back to levels of last sept like nothing happened leaves one speechless .This has no bearing on my trading but i'm fascinated how easily anything bad is discarded and has been for decades . I really thought this time the piper would finally be paid and it still might be but its looking like the lows of 2176 will be super hard to hit

I guess, somebody missing markets bottoms because they had no guts to buy there.
Tooooo baaaad.

 

[ElCubano]

2018...

Previous, I take it he means prior to 08/09, when we figured out throwing money at it can detach the market from the true economy.