What most people miss when looking at internalization
is that there are several traders involved.
The customer sending a marketable order,
the internalizing B/D
and the trader(s) whose limit(s) is making up the NBBO.
If the B/D uses no information regarding the customer (how informed he is)
and has no view on the short term direction in the stock (unlikely)
when deciding to trade against the customer, then here is how the parties
are affected:
-- customer benefits via price improvement (typically ~ 0.01 c/share)
-- B/D benefits via jumping the queue (typically ~ 1c / share)
According to Tradeworx public commentary on the
SEC market structure concept release:
"Here is why it matters:
In a price-time priority market,
orders that are at the front of the queue experience the LEAST adverse selection,
and orders that are the back of the queue receive the MOST adverse selection.
This is obvious, because if you are the last one to buy on the bid,
that means the bid is about to become the new offer.
Conversely, if many people are behind you on the bid,
that means the bid is likely to hold after you trade.
Empirically there is a 1.7 cps difference in profitability for a posted
share that is first in line vs one which is last in line"
-- the trader making up the NBBO is robbed of the fill and the trader(s) with limits
in line behind him are robbed of the opportunity to advance in the queue
(total cost ~ 1c / share spread among them and felt via adverse selection)
If the B/D uses information regarding the customer or has the ability to
forecast short term direction, then the customer will expereince adverse selection
on their internalized fills. This cost will be higher for
better traders (informed traders) and when trading against a broker that is
particularly good at short term forecasts, and may very well overwhelm
the nominal price improvement received.