Lightning Round-name Your Swing Trade

If you like Caterpillar, but want a bigger pop, I would suggest A.S.V., Inc. (ASVI). They make many of the track systems for CAT and it appears that where CAT goes, ASVI goes first and bigger.

It might turn your 30% into 50% and sooner than the CAT move?

If nothing else, it might add an additional indicator to when CAT moves.
 
I love this company's balance sheet and financials. However, when it did drop this year it failed to stop at the 200 week moving average suggesting some trouble.

I have this feeling that the 200 week moving average will be the new ceiling. It would have been a more attractive buy for myself at 13-14, then right now at 15. I imagine if its able to get through the 200 week moving average ceiling, then the 50 week moving average will be the next ceiling. The 50/200 do seem to be converging on each other which is a questionable sign.

The good thing is that the float is small and that there has been a lot of hammering down on the stock this year. I should expect that more people will sell by the end of December for tax loss reasons and hammer it down to bargain territory.

I would only trade this as a short term swing. If growth is questionable for 2007, then surely the trend will continue that way for 2008-2009 time period.

Quote from stampdet:

If you like Caterpillar, but want a bigger pop, I would suggest A.S.V., Inc. (ASVI). They make many of the track systems for CAT and it appears that where CAT goes, ASVI goes first and bigger.

It might turn your 30% into 50% and sooner than the CAT move?

If nothing else, it might add an additional indicator to when CAT moves.
More...
 
UPDATE ON ACME PACKET APKT

It appears the company is being bid up on light volume right before the Credit Suisse conference. I saw this same thing happen with SFLY.

SFLY was bid up right up to the conference and then SFLY's CEO had made a very bad presentation. Actually, his manner of presentation was very convincing, however, the subject matter he used was not. He was stating that Shutterfly would be the older generation's Myspace. I have a Shutterfly account and its nice to store photos on the site for free. However, Shutterfly is no Myspace. He turned many investors off. Shortly afterwards, the stock fell.

My prediction is that Acme will probably get to 19-20 dollar price area. Walked up on light volume. If the conference presentation is good, then it will consolidate and go higher. If its bad, then the stock will get cut back and quite a bit.

Quote from eagle488:

ACME PACKET APKT

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=APKT

Average Volume (3 month)3: 1,155,340
Average Volume (10 day)3: 732,100
Shares Outstanding: 56.71M
Float: N/A
% Held by Insiders4: N/A
% Held by Institutions4: N/A
Shares Short (as of 10-Oct-06)3: 0
Short Ratio (as of 10-Oct-06)3: 0
Short % of Float (as of 10-Oct-06)3: N/A
Shares Short (prior month)3: 0

Since this is an IPO, there is very little information to go on. It was bid up right before the conference call because many thought that they would hit it out of the park. Indeed, it was a great conference call except for one little technicality. It cost a lot of cash to bring the company public so next years revenues will be lower then the current year. That sent the shares tumbling from the 14s.

In review of other message boards, there were indeed many who lost their shirt on this one. However, on a Mad Money lightning round last week Jim Cramer came out and openly recommended the stock stating that he would feature it on that weeks show. That sent the stock soaring into the 16s and getting as high as 17. It seemed to hold up well at the 15-16 price points for that week on the Cramer pump. Cantor Fitzgerald then came out with a "hold" recommendation but stated that they felt the one year price target should be 16. That analyst recommendation stabilized the price right around 16.

This week, since Cramer had told a fib, the stock flexed down a little to the high 15s. Then on Monday and Tuesday, there appeared to be some nice volume and then what appeared to be a few block buys. The price started to flex up a little toward the end of day Tuesday as if something was going to happen.

Then on Weds morning, Goldman Sachs did something interesting. They came out with a "neutral" rating and stated the one year price target is 21 dollars. Suddenly, the price started to gravate higher and gained 1.20 in one day.

On November 30th, Acme will present at the Credit Suisse Technology conference. The key here is to listen to the live webcast of the conference and note what happens to the price of the shares over the coming days. If Acme does well at the confrence, then the price will go higher. If Acme fails to do well, then the stock will probably recede back down to the 16 dollar price point.

You have to look at what the price does the next day or two after the conference because you may think they did well, but someone else might think they did poorly. I would look for block trades to see if someone is taking a position.

The Goldman Sachs news release was bogus. I believe they (or one of their buddies) took a position before they released the news as evidenced by the mysterious block trades from no apparent news. They then released this bogus analyst statement stating a "neutral" rating but with a fat price target. If anyone comes back to them to accuse them of wrongdoing, then they can always say that their rating was "neutral". I tend to believe more in Cantor Fitzgerald to give me an honest answer then Goldman.

You might want to get in before the conference. The price will be bid up on expectations of a good conference. I believe Goldman will have representatives at the conference or will watch it live by webcast. If the webcast doesnt go well, then Goldman will quickly dump the shares and might even short the stock. If the webcast does go well, then Goldman will simply hold onto the shares as part of a longer term strategy.

This is a highly risky trade and very theorhetical. There is no historical data to go by or technical charts that we can easily reference. Its more of a gamble, then a trade. I honestly would get in if there was a pullback tommorrow during the shortened trading day. I would like it to pullback towards 16.

However, if something were to go wrong, I believe the long term growth is there and that it wouldnt be unreasonable to buy/hold the shares for over a year. I believe as they get more into 2007, then investors will start to look forward to 2008 when the cost of going public will have been paid for and revenues increase.
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FUEL CELL ENERGY FCEL

I have reviewed the charts and fundamentals for this company. I have concluded that its horrible. However, the key is that as of October 10th there existed over 7 million short shares. Recently, CIBC had upgraded the stock to "Sector perform" and the result was a little upside.

The key to this company is the record of short interest and the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCEL&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p92519827963

SHORT INTEREST REPORT
Oct. 13, 2006 7,701,463
Sep. 15, 2006 7,838,265
Aug. 15, 2006 7,867,755
Jul. 14, 2006 7,773,748
Jun. 15, 2006 7,957,133
May 15, 2006 7,206,132
Apr. 13, 2006 9,910,389
Mar. 15, 2006 7,831,043
Feb. 15, 2006 7,453,505
Jan. 13, 2006 6,466,803
Dec. 15, 2005 6,654,643
Nov. 15, 2005 6,646,088

It appears to me that a lot of people have channel traded this company between 7-12 for the last 2 years. They would buy in around 7 and then short at 12. At some point would be a big short covering rally and I had noted where the stock had jumped from 9.88 to 12 in very short time.

However, on its recent downtrend, the conference call was especially bad. Instead of rebounding back up to 12, the down trend continued down to the 6s.

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/060908/115774519815.html?.v=1

On Friday, someone stepped in and bought a lot of Dec 7.50 and Dec 10 calls which are currently out of the money. The usual call option activity for 1 month is 288, but this was 1178 IN ONE DAY. There was more call volume activity in ONE DAY. 4 months of call activity in OUT OF THE MONEY CALLS in one day.

I dont think the company will get bought out. However, I do believe that a short covering rally is about to occur. The call volume suggests that many others feel the same way as I do. However, instead of buying the common stock, they bought the calls just in case this does not come true. Like I said, the company is horrible and the last conference call was especially bad. The calls could have been purchased by the shorts as well to protect their position.

If a short covering rally does occur, then this will create a V-bottom. Covering 7 million shares in a stock that trades 650k in a day and with a 42 million float will be insane.

I may do either of two things, buy the DEC 7.50 calls at 20 cents or monitor the stock intraday for volume and price. If I see sudden volume, then the short covering rally will be at hand. It wont just shoot up, but will be a continual uptrend all day long. 7 million shorts trying to squeeze where 650k is usually traded.

At the current price levels, even a .5 bump would equal about a 7% gain which is not unimaginable even if you got in late on the short covering rally. Better then a money market fund.
 
I'm looking at :

BEBE

and

FBN

Both are beaten down companies with good earnings records and a history of quickly fixing whatever problems force the stock price down.

Hoping for 10% in 30 days.
 
Bargains in beaten sectors -

Construction/Home Improvement:
FAST
DW
MSM
WSM

Transportation:
FWRD
LSTR
OSK
KNX

Apparel:
CHS
JOSB
BEBE
ANF
 
This thread is packed full of winners, but it doesn't seem like anybody cares. All stochastics and annotated charts sim traders here? :confused:
 
Here are three more solid swing trades.

ceph nice swing trade up to 75.00 min
erts good to at least 55.00
and believe it or not
F good for a quick .40 to .50 cents.

of the three I like ceph the best and will buy some tomorrow.
 
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